CFEP: ‘Think-tank’ of the young, by the young but for all of us

Pasan, author, and Talal at the launch of CFEP

The final message delivered by Pasan was a warning: “Grab the opportunities today because there might not be a second chance”. This has been a warning given to all the political leaders of Sri Lanka since independence but conveniently chosen to be ignored by them. At least if only a section of the country’s youth takes this warning seriously and decides to act fast, it will be a new journey for the country’s future generations 

New foundation for economic policy analysts

Recently, I had the opportunity to witness the formalisation of a new ‘think-tank’ in Colombo by some interested young people to undertake economic policy analysis. The think-tank, formally known as Ceylon Foundation for Economic Policy-analysis or CFEP (pronounced as SEE-FEP), has been created by young economist Pasan Wijayawardhana, an economics Don at the Colombo University. 

All men and women in CFEP were young people between the ages of 20 and 25 who had aspired to become science-based economic policy analysts. They had joined CFEP as volunteers, while studying economics at the local state university system. This was a unique voluntary action because it is not always the case that the university undergraduates choose to get involved in such a mission as an extra-curricular activity amidst their normal Grade Point Average or GPA driven study programs. In this sense, the young economics Guru Pasan Wijayawardhana could be described as a trailblazer showing a new path to Sri Lanka’s youngsters.

Refusal to learn outside GPA

I recall my own failure in 2015 to attract young undergraduates to an opportunity of extra learning of the science of economics when Aruni Shapiro, presently domiciled in Canada, put to Sinhalese the writings of the 19th century French economist and statesman, Frederic Bastiat, an unknown economist of worth to Sri Lankan population.1 The book was published by Ishara Gamage, a renowned journalist on economic and business issues, who steered the newly formed Federic Bastiat Society in Sri Lanka. 

As a patron of the foundation, I invited the local universities to assemble their economics students for a few sessions on Bastiat economics so that the newly formed foundation could popularise the philosophy of Bastiat among the economists in the making at the university system and release them to society as informed economic analysts. But the response was zero. One of the leading economics Gurus apologised to me that it would not be possible to assemble students for a program that does not add value to their GPAs. That is why I brand what Pasan has undertaken today as a mission impossible and something of worth to be noticed by us.

New definition of young-ness

Among the crowd, I was the only old man since the other outsider who was present, economist Talal Rafi, was not so old by any reckoning. Unlike me, he could easily and conveniently move among those youngsters as one of them. However, my interaction with them was very progressive and at the outset, I told them that my definition of young-ness does not go by age. Instead, when you wake up in the morning, you tell yourself that ‘I want to do this, instead of I am required to do this’, you are still a young person though you may have passed well over 60 years on this earth. By the same token, if you say to yourself that I am required to do this, you are an old fellow though you are still in the blossoming twenties. Hence, young-ness is something related to motivation emanating from a dynamic and forceful drive within heart.

Gap in available opportunities

Pasan, presenting the blueprint of CFEP, described that its goal is to empower the next generation of economic policymakers in the country. He said that there is a gap between what is needed and what is available for young people. In 2022, during the famous Aragalaya against the prevailing Gotabaya Rajapaksa government, the youth in Sri Lanka demanded the power to make policies. But it is questionable whether they had enough intellectual capacity to do the job. The opportunities given to the youth in various fora have been far from the desired. The youth participation in Sri Lanka Parliament had been below 2%, their representation in local government had been about 30%, and their political interest in policymaking, according to a UNDP backed study was about 2%. 

According to the Future of Job Survey conducted by the World Economic Forum in 2024, he said that most of the routine jobs presently being done by young people will disappear within about five years. This is not due to their fault but a development that is looming over us by the advancements in new information and communication technologies. At the same time, in the next five years, most of the new jobs created will be in analytical fields whether it is big data science or financial technology engineering. Hence, it is a must that the next generation economists and policy analysts should be among this crowd who will conduct inclusive and evidence-based economic policy analyses.

Five core objectives

In this background, Pasan said that CFEP has five core objectives: promotion of evidence based economic research, bridging the gap between the youth and the national policy frameworks, advocacy of inclusive and sustainable development, building the capacity of young researchers, and influencing economic policy formulation at the national and international levels. To realise these objectives, CFEP has a work program, announced Pasan. That included conducting policy-oriented research and publishing briefs, organising public lectures, fora, and policy dialogues, facilitating capacity-building workshops and mentoring programs, creating platforms for collaborating between academia, government, and the civil society, and getting youth engagement in economic policy discourses. 

To work in specific areas, CFEP has been organised into four departments specialising in public policy, international economics policy, financial economics policy and digital and technical economics policy. The initial volunteers have been distributed among these four specialities. Presently, CFEP operates only from Colombo but in years to come, it has a plan to expand to outstations as well.

Grabbing opportunity before it is lost

Thus, what is the long-term goal of CFEP? That is to become Sri Lanka’s leading youth-centred economic policy institute contributing to national development and global economic discourses. This is a noble goal seeming to be difficult but not impossible if pursued vigorously and rigorously. A similar program has been organised by the Bandaranaike Academy for Leadership and Public Policy, an offshoot of the Bandaranaike Centre for International Studies located in the premises of the Bandaranaike Memorial International Conference Hall in Colombo for up-and-coming young politicians of all hues. It will be useful and productive for CFEP to collaborate with this academy to pursue its long-terms goals. 

The final message delivered by Pasan was a warning: “Grab the opportunities today because there might not be a second chance”. This has been a warning given to all the political leaders of Sri Lanka since independence but conveniently chosen to be ignored by them. At least if only a section of the country’s youth takes this warning seriously and decides to act fast, it will be a new journey for the country’s future generations.

Goals of youngsters

Ishara Herath who heads the public policy division is an economics Guru at a private university holding a public management degree from Sri Jayewardenepura University and a master’s in public policy from Japan’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, acronymed as GRIPS. She tells me that she volunteered to serve in the think-tank to put her knowledge into practice and disseminate it among the interested young people in the country. ‘It is essential’ she says, ‘to scientifically develop the policy analysis subject in the country because presently public policy has been relegated to whims and fancies of top-level politicians and public servants are simply blindly following them’. 

Anupa de Silva, an undergraduate in finance at Colombo University, has been a team member of the International Economics Olympiad and a member of the youth parliament in Sri Lanka. He tells me that he joined the think-tank to learn of the scientific methods involving policy analysis and disseminate that knowledge amongst other interested youngsters. 

Nuha Nazardeen who hails from Batticaloa is a financial economics undergraduate at Sri Jayewardenepura University. She is committed to social justice and believes that she could combine her knowledge and passion to make a positive impact in finance, economics, and human rights through CFEP. These are the wishes of some of the volunteers with whom I had a brief interaction.

Talal Rafi on tariffs issue

Talal Rafi, the internationally famed young economist who functions as a columnist for IMF publications and a panellist at discussions of the World Economic Forum, spoke to the young volunteers on the impact of the recent tariff revisions by the Donald Trump administration on countries like Sri Lanka and how it should be reckoned in policy analysis by economists. He said that though the average reciprocal tariff rate has been eased from 44% to 20%, Sri Lanka is still not out of the woods. His parting advice was that as policy analysts they should not be guided by emotions, biases, and prejudices but by evidence supported by objective data gathering.

Qualities of a good learner

In my brief keynote that made an inquiry into knowledge, I drew their attention to the required qualities which a good learner should acquire as preached by the Buddha to Bhikkus in the Avasa Sobhana Sutta canonised in the Anguttara Nikaya.2 The Buddha advised to the Bhikkus who wished to illuminate the monastery in which they resided, among others, that they should cultivate good learning habits involving learning more Dhamma, understanding and remembering that Dhamma, reflecting on that Dhamma, being able to relate that Dhamma to another in his own words, and seeing beyond that Dhamma. This piece of advice of the Buddha is relevant to any learner today. 

About 300 years after the Buddha, the Chinese philosopher of Confucian lineage, Xunzi, is reported to have given a similar advice: ‘What I hear, I forget. What I see, I remember. What I do, I understand’.3 What this means is that the knowledge that is not used for practical purposes is not relevant, as said by Indian economics Guru, Kautilya, who is also known as Chanakya. In the Ethics of Chanakya, he said that ‘knowledge which is not used gets destroyed’.4

Being slave to Math

There is a debate on which knowledge is relevant, descriptive knowledge or abstract knowledge.

Modern day economic policy analysts tend to be guided by abstract knowledge that places heavy emphasis on mathematical models. But math can be used by crafty people to outwit opponents. A story related by Astro-physicist Carl Sagan in his Broca’s Brain tells us how the Greek mathematician Euler outwitted the French encyclopaedist Diderot who had become a nuisance in Empress Catherine’s court in Russia when he argued with everyone that there was no God. Euler had told the Empress that he could put this nuisance to a halt by proving mathematically to Diderot that God exists.

During the debate, Euler had told his opponent that “Sir, (a+bn)/n = x, therefore, God exists, disprove”. It was a mathematical puzzle which no human could solve at that time and, hence could be solved only by an invisible force like God. Diderot, unable to respond, is said to have fled the court.5 What should be appreciated by a researcher is that Math is a servant and not a master. Knowledge is not complete if one does not develop the capacity to explain to another person, most often a man in the street, in his own words as the Buddha had advised the Bhikkus. I have experience in this regard in both counts. 

At the University of York, UK, we were forced to use mathematical models to explain what we had learned. But at the Simon Fraser University in Canada, Larry Boland who taught advanced microeconomics at the doctoral level put in the rubric of the paper ‘Answer this paper without using mathematics or technical terms’. Boland was a firm believer that even the most complex economic theory could be explained in simple language to the janitor, the cleaning lady in Sri Lanka’s context.

Chauffeur knowledge v Planck knowledge

Following the encounter of Max Planck, the German scientist who bagged the Nobel Prize in physics in 1918, knowledge is now broken into chauffeur knowledge and planck knowledge.6 According to the story, Max Planck who had gone on a lecture tour in German universities after he got the Nobel Prize had been bored of his assignment, because he had to repeat the same lecture at every university he had visited. His chauffeur who had noticed it had suggested to him that they change places, and he would deliver the lecture which he can repeat by memory, while Planck, dressed as the chauffeur would sit in the audience and enjoy the fun. This had gone on well till, at one of the universities, a difficult Don asking him a difficult question. 

The chauffeur who had mastered the street-smartness had turned to the questioning Don and belittled him saying that even his chauffeur would know the answer to that simple question. So did the chauffeur who was seated in the audience. From that day onwards, knowledge is now broken into surface knowledge or chauffeur knowledge and deep knowledge or Planck knowledge. What the youngsters should acquire is this deep knowledge, though it is strenuous and painful. But once one savours it, that is the most blissful attainment of human intellectuality and knowledge gathering.

Falsify theories

As per the observations of the British philosopher Karl Popper, a scientific theory cannot be proven true, but it can definitively be proven false. Therefore, if something presented by a scientist cannot be falsified, it is not a scientific theory. As a result, an accepted theory today can be proven false tomorrow. What this means is that no scientist finds the truth; he can find only a truth because it is liable to be refuted one day. Therefore, my parting advice to those young policy analysts was that ‘do not say that you have found the truth; instead, say that you have found a truth’.

Commendable work

My sincere wish is that all those youngsters who have volunteered to serve on the CFEP would one day be great policy analysts. But it involves a strenuous and painful learning program to be undertaken relentlessly seeking for challenging deep knowledge rather than the surface side of knowledge, which is easy, unchallenging and, hence, popular. This is difficult but not an impossible task if guided correctly. I hope Pasan will be able to guide them toward this goal.

Footnotes:

1Libertarian Economics: A Lesson Which Your Teachers Won’t Tell You (in Sinhala), 2015, Aruni Shapiro Translation, A Bastiat Society of Sri Lanka Publication, Colombo.

2Anguttara Nikaya, Book of Fives, Avasika Vagga 33.

3https://www.episcopalcollegiate.org/uploaded/Wildcat_Weekly/lstechtalk_020413.pdf

4Ethics of Chanakya, 1998, Tantric Yogi Ramesh Translation, Sahni Publications, Delhi, p 57.

5Sagan, Carl, 1975, Broca’s Brain: Reflections on the Romance of Science, Random House, p 151

6Dobelli, Rolf, 2014, The Art of Thinking Clearly, Harper Books, pp 46-8.

(The writer, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, can be reached at [email protected].)