Global tourism arrivals to hit record 1.57 b in 2026, WTM Reports

Tourism Economics Managing Director EMEA Dave Goodger

International tourist arrivals are forecast to reach a record 1.57 billion in 2026, despite geopolitical tensions, rising travel costs and slower growth, according to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026, released at WTM London.

Produced in partnership with Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, the report projects a 2% increase in international overnight arrivals compared with 2025, while international visitor spending is expected to rise 6 percent to $ 1.8 trillion.

However, global arrivals growth has slowed from 6% in 2025 to just 2% this year, reflecting the impact of conflict in the Middle East, higher airfares and cost-of-living pressures.

“In the face of ongoing disruption, including conflict in the Middle East and rising cost-of-living pressures, the industry is on course for another record year in 2026,” said Tourism Economics Managing Director EMEA Dave Goodger. 

The report highlights a shift toward shorter journeys as travelers adjust their plans in response to higher costs and geopolitical uncertainty.

While international travel between world regions declined by 3% in 2026, short-haul travel increased by the same percentage, particularly within Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Europe recorded a 5% increase in international arrivals, benefiting from travelers choosing destinations closer to home. Africa and Oceania also posted strong growth, with arrivals rising 8% in each region.

Meanwhile, international arrivals to the Middle East fell 40%, reflecting the impact of the conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted air connectivity and weakened long-haul demand.

The report notes that Gulf aviation hubs accounted for 15% of global transit traffic in 2025, underlining the wider effects of the disruption on international travel.

Changing consumer preferences are also reshaping travel demand, with more travelers seeking value for money while continuing to spend on experiences they consider important.

“Leisure travel remains a key priority in consumer budgets, even as travellers are adapting how and where they visit, for example by spending selectively on the experiences that matter most to them or staying closer to home,” Goodger said.

According to the report, one in six travellers selected their most recent international destination primarily for value for money in 2026, compared with around one in 11 in 2025.

At the same time, 56% of surveyed travellers expressed interest in combining budget-conscious choices with premium experiences, indicating opportunities for travel businesses to offer more flexible pricing and services.

The trend toward off-peak travel is also continuing, with 22% of respondents planning to travel at different times of the year than previously, increasingly motivated by better value.

Looking ahead, Tourism Economics expects international arrivals to grow 8% in 2027 if current disruptions ease, with long-haul travel projected to rebound by 11%.

The report forecasts that international arrivals could reach 2.2 billion by 2032, supported by expanding outbound markets, including India and China, and sustained consumer demand for travel.

WTM London Event Director Chris said Carter-Chapman said the findings reflect the theme of this year’s exhibition.

“The key findings of the 2026 report are echoed in the conference theme of this year’s show: ‘Resilience, Rebound and Reinvention: the next era of global travel’,” he said.