With biggest markets at doorstep, Sri Lanka in a sweet spot: Kishore Mahbubani

Singapore National University Asia Research Institute Distinguished Fellow Prof. Kishore Mahbubani – Pic by Lasantha Kumara

• One of Asia’s most widely known commentators Prof. Kishore Mahbubani says Sri Lanka should seize opportunity and leverage country’s tourism sector
• Opines Sri Lanka has still not fully seized true potential of strategic location
• Points to Dubai’s brilliant job as a hub, stating past 30 years should have been Sri Lanka’s success story as well by opening up to foreign talent, making it a business hub
• Stresses current competitive economic environment demands countries evolve and reimagine than relying too much on traditional sectors
• Calls upon Lankans to team up and rebuild nation rather than leaving it in hands of a single leader; stresses need for strong and stable policies
• Points to Singapore’s success, says it was made possible by a team built on principles of meritocracy, pragmatism and honesty; insists Sri Lanka can emulate this
• Opines growing distrust between China and India can impact Sri Lanka, SL needs to figure out how to manage this contest
• Insists Sri Lanka in a real sweet spot but requires remarkable amount of geopolitical scaling
• Says Sri Lanka should be able to stand up to both China and India to be able to get along with both countries
• Urges South Asian leaders to rejuvenate SAARC

By Randima Attygalle

One of Asia’s most widely known commentators and spokespeople, Prof. Kishore Mahbubani last week in Colombo said strategically located Sri Lanka is at a sweet spot to benefit from the world’s biggest markets at its doorstep, provided there are consistent policies, a collective effort, and smarter geopolitical scaling.

A Distinguished Fellow at the Asia Research Institute (ARI), National University of Singapore (NUS), Prof. Mahbubani shared some solid advice for Sri Lanka with global examples and insights at a forum titled ‘Navigating the Asian Century – Opportunities and Risks for Sri Lanka.’

The Singaporean diplomat and geopolitical consultant, who served as Singapore Permanent Representative to the UN and UN Security Council President, shared his insights under three broad pillars: why Asian countries will make it, challenges for Asia, and risks and opportunities for Sri Lanka.

“The world has done Sri Lanka a huge favour by bringing the world’s biggest markets to its doorstep,” he remarked. “There are at least 3.5 billion people from India, China, and Southeast Asia, all within a matter of six to eight hours away from Sri Lanka. First thing people would want to do in a growing economy is to travel, and Sri Lanka should seize this opportunity and leverage the country’s tourism sector,” he said.

The growing distrust between China and India is another matter to take stock of which can impact Sri Lanka in a big way, and the country needs to figure out how to manage this contest. “If you can find a way to win the trust of both China and India, you will be in a real sweet spot, but it requires a remarkable amount of geopolitical scaling which requires a lot of hard work and a massive investment of timing and resources. But if you could do that, you can take advantage of the great opportunities which are coming your way.”

Citing the classic example of Vietnam, where the litmus test of strong leadership is the ability to stand up to neighbouring giant China and get along with China, Prof. Mahbubani stressed that this should be the case for Sri Lanka as well. “I believe that if you are going to become the leader of Sri Lanka, you should be able to stand up to both China and India and you must be able to get along with both countries.”

Event moderator LIRNEasia Founding Chair Prof. Rohan Samarajiva introduced Prof. Mahbubani as a “personification of the Singaporean principle of MPH (Meritocracy- Pragmatism-Honesty).” Prof. Samarajiva noted that Prof. Mahbubani, although a philosopher himself, advocates the prudence of Karl Marx—that philosophers ought to change the world rather than merely interpreting it in various ways.

Reminding the audience which comprised top-ranking professionals drawn from multiple disciplines, Prof. Samarajiva remarked that Prof. Mahbubani is a witness to Singapore’s dynamic transformation in the past 50 years, which has positioned the country as an Asian powerhouse.

End of Western domination

The founding father of modern Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew once dreamt of the ‘Ceylonese model’ for his nation. In this dream resonated the great potential our land always had and still has, largely untapped and taken for granted. Setting the stage for the conversation, Prof. Mahbubani, while recollecting the precedent Sri Lanka set for his country, urged Lankans to seize the power of ‘now’ to forge a ‘realistic understanding of the new world’ that the country has to navigate.

“The West gives all kinds of reasons as to why there won’t be an Asian century,” remarked Prof. Mahbubani, who was the first Singaporean to publish articles in globally renowned journals and newspapers like Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the New York Times, and the Financial Times. He is also credited for co-authoring articles with distinguished global thought leaders, such as Kofi Annan, Klaus Schwab, and Larry Summers.

As demonstrated in his publication, ‘The Asian 21st century,’ the author enlightened the audience of the massively different 21st century marked by the end of the era of Western domination of world history and return to the success of many Asian societies, especially the two most populous societies of China and India. Despite this great reluctance by the West to accept an Asian century, the re-emergence of “old connections” interlaced by Buddhist, Hindu, and Islamic cultures is inevitable, noted the scholar.

Maintaining that the past 200 years of Western domination of world history has been an aberration, Prof. Mahbubani went on to add that “aberrations come to a natural end” as proven by the Indian and Chinese experience. “In 2000, neither China nor India were among the top 10 economies in the world but today, China is second only to the US and India is at number five.” 

Underscoring the might of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Prof. Mahbubani reminded that the ‘bouncing back of the ASEAN’ itself is a clear index to the success of Asian nations. “The Southeast Asia region is remarkable. So much so, in the decade 2010-2020, even though the EU is five times bigger than the ASEAN, the latter added more to global economic growth than the entire EU did for one decade.”

Psychological breakthrough

Born in Singapore to a Sindhi-speaking Hindu family who were displaced from the Sindh province during the Partition of India, young Prof. Mahbubani for the first 15 years of his life grew up in a British colony believing that a person of brown skin, like himself, was intellectually and culturally inferior to a white man. Such servile mentality continues to bind many Asians with colonial shackles still, lamented the globally acclaimed scholar, who remarked that while drawing from the West, Asian countries can still thrive on their unique attributes. Citing the case of China which marked a spectacular growth since it joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, Prof. Mahbubani went on to illustrate how the country with only a 6% share of global manufacturing way back then, is predicted to be claiming 45% of the global total by 2030. Alluding to Japan’s success story in the global economic landscape, Prof. Mahbubani remarked that the country “played a critical role in reviving the spirits of Asia.” Recollecting the words of the Indian Premier Jawaharlal Nehru, who first began to believe that India could decolonise only when Japan defeated the Russians in 1905, the speaker reiterated the urgency of a ‘psychological breakthrough’ for Asia that they can do it.

Shift of competence

The shift of competence in governance also signals a new chapter for Asia, believes Prof. Mahbubani. “The painful wars they have created in the recent past is a clear manifestation of incompetent governance and the lack of strategic common sense in the West,” remarked the speaker, who went on to remind that the hosannas of the West at the end of two world wars claiming loud that they had the best governance, has become empty rhetoric today.

“Europe’s past will be Asia’s future,” he remarked. This incompetence of Europe was further demonstrated by the way EU-US trade negotiations were managed, pointed out Prof. Mahbubani, citing the recent example of their failure to immediately retaliate against Trump’s new tariffs, he added.

US-China contest

In terms of the risks and challenges Asia will have to face in the next 10 to 20 years, the geopolitical consultant warns of the contest between the US and China, resulting in a “tremendous amount of chaos and uncertainty with the first shot fired with Trump’s tariffs.”

Despite substantial data speaking for the fact that Asian nations are growing, prospering, and succeeding, the mindset that the West is still going to run the world still remains a mental barrier for Asians. “Perhaps it was accepted in the 1940s for the two most powerful international economic institutions in the world – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank – to be headed by a European, but this thinking won’t make sense anymore simply because the fastest growing economies in the world are Asian ones,” averred Prof. Mahbubani.

Reimagining business

In response to a question from the audience during the interactive session as to how Sri Lanka could capitalise on her strategic location, the scholar maintained that unfortunately, the country has still not fully seized its true potential. “Sri Lanka is a beautiful island with so much to offer but sadly, Dubai, with no special advantage in terms of location but with only a desert, has done a brilliant job with commitment and imagination. What Dubai had done over the past 30 years should have been Sri Lanka’s success story as well – opening up to foreign talent, making it a business hub.”

The current competitive economic environment demands countries to evolve and reimagine, remarked Prof. Mahbubani, who asserted that countries cannot hang on to their traditional staple industries alone in the event of them being threatened. “You have to change and adapt and that’s what Singapore’s Economic Development Board has been doing right along – to anticipate what is coming and find means of adapting.”

Drawing from the best practices in his own country, the scholar called upon Lankans to team up and rebuild the nation rather than leaving it in the hands of a single leader. He also averred that the country needs strong and stable policies, which will not alter with the change of regime. “When Singapore became independent in 1965, our per capita income was $ 500, the same as Ghana in Africa. But today, we have a per capita income of $ 88,000, higher than the US. And how did we do it? It wasn’t achieved by one man. It was by a team that was built on the principles of meritocracy, pragmatism and honesty. And I strongly believe that any nation, including Sri Lanka, can emulate this.”

Rejuvenating the SAARC

Responding to another question, Prof. Mahbubani asserted that the story of Asia’s growth is certainly not about China alone, yet its spectacular success story can have a massive ripple effect across all Asian nations, including Sri Lanka. “By the year 2022, the ASEAN’s sales with the US went up from 135 billion to 500 billion – an increase over three times. Yet, the ASEAN’s sales with China alone went up from 40 billion to $ 975.”

 Giving muscle to the ASEAN’s presence is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is the world’s largest free trading arrangement in the world. Initiated by the 10 ASEAN countries, this partnership is made of 50 countries including China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

Reiterating the importance and urgency of galvanising the region to counter threats and risks collectively, the Singaporean also urged South Asian leaders to rejuvenate the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), which has been inactive.