Poverty rises to 16% as real household incomes fall below 2019 levels

Friday, 6 November 2026 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Census Department releases preliminary findings of HIES 2025
Poverty headcount index climbs to 16%, up 1.7 percentage points from 14.3% in 2019 and reversing a decline from 22.5% in 2012/13
About 3.42 m people live below the poverty line, 2.93 m of them in rural areas; estate sector records highest rate at 23%
Official poverty line rises to Rs. 16,417 per person a month from Rs. 6,966 in 2019
Real mean household income falls 7.8% from 2019 and real median income 11.1%, even as nominal mean income rose 93.2% to Rs. 120,266
Mean monthly expenditure Rs. 116,191, against mean income of Rs. 120,266

Poverty has reversed a decade of decline and real household incomes have fallen below their 2019 level, according to preliminary official data that underline how far price growth has outrun earnings.

The Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) put the poverty headcount index at 16% in the first quarter of 2025, against 14.3% in 2019, in a bulletin published in October, 2026 under the Finance, Planning and Economic Development Ministry. The rate had fallen steadily from 22.5% in 2012/13 before the reversal.

Real mean household income dropped 7.8% from 2019 to Rs. 65,969 at 2016 prices, and real median income dropped 11.1% to Rs. 41,623, the sharper fall falling on the household at the midpoint of the distribution. Nominal mean income rose 93.2% over the period to Rs. 120,266 and nominal median income 74.4% to Rs. 75,882, but the purchasing power of both declined.

The data place 3,419,069 people below the poverty line, a threshold set at Rs. 16,417 per person a month, against Rs. 6,966 in 2019. Of the total, 2,934,392 are rural, 279,054 urban and 205,624 on estates, where the incidence is highest at 23.0% against 17.3% in rural areas and 7.8% in towns.

Income remains heavily skewed. The poorest 20% of households averaged Rs. 22,612 a month against Rs. 335,679 for the richest 20%, a gap of nearly 15 times. Urban households averaged Rs. 178,455 against Rs. 110,613 in rural areas and Rs. 72,558 on estates, while mean household size was 3.4.

Mean monthly expenditure of Rs. 116,191 left an average margin of about Rs. 4,000 over income, though the median household spent Rs. 94,057 against median income of Rs. 75,882. Real mean expenditure rose to Rs. 63,734 from Rs. 55,430 in 2019, and real median expenditure to Rs. 51,593 from Rs. 41,745.

The DCS cautioned that the estimates are provisional, rest on the first-quarter sample of the 25,000 households surveyed from January to December 2025 and are provided only to sector level pending final validation. Sampling variability is highest for the urban and estate figures, with coefficients of variation of 18.0% and 18.8% on the poverty index.

The survey, the eleventh in the series, was last conducted in 2019 and was planned for 2022 before being deferred to follow the Population and Housing Census completed in 2024. The full-year report will carry district-level estimates.