Ditwah economic risk at $ 16 b, or 16% of GDP – ILO

• ILO assessment finds Ditwah hits 374,000 workers; income losses at $ 48 m a month
• Estimates that agriculture and fisheries sectors were severely hit 
• Up to 23% of rice-cultivating land affected by floods, tea output losses as high as 35% 
• Recommends emergency cash assistance and employment-intensive early recovery activities 
• Recovery initiatives must combine with specific sectoral support and assistance to MSMEs 

The International Labour Organisation (ILO) yesterday said that the floods and landslides triggered by Cyclone Ditwah have put around 16% of national GDP at risk, valued at around $ 16 billion, with impacts concentrated in a limited number of districts. 

“This spatial concentration increases the likelihood of uneven recovery and prolonged local economic disruption if not addressed through targeted interventions”, the ILO said a special brief titled ‘Preliminary employment assessment of the impact of Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka’.

“The geographical distribution of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated using night-time light data. This approach enables a more precise estimate of areas directly affected by the floods. The combined flooded and landslide-impacted zones account for 16.3% of observed night-time lights. It can therefore be estimated that GDP equivalent to $ 16 billion has been exposed to potential damages,” the brief said.

The previous day, the World Bank’s rapid assessment estimated the initial damage at $ 4.1 billion or 4% of GDP excluding income losses, business interruption, or the full costs of recovery and reconstruction, including potential “build back better” investments. Total recovery needs are therefore expected to be significantly higher, the World Bank said.

The ILO brief said up to 374,000 workers have been potentially affected by flooding and landslides caused by Cyclone Ditwah, with estimated income losses accruing to $ 48 million per month, according to the International Labour Organisation.

A new ILO brief outlines the devastating labour market impact of Cyclone Ditwah, which made landfall in Sri Lanka on 26 November, bringing catastrophic rains and causing landslides in large parts of the country. The most severe flooding took place in Northern and Eastern districts, while landslides particularly affected central areas, where many tea plantations are located.

The brief combines remote sensing data on flood extent, population, agriculture and nightlight with labour force survey data to provide a preliminary snapshot of the situation in the affected area. This approach aims to provide timely insights into the potential impact on livelihoods and to guide both the emergency response and medium-term support to help workers regain a foothold in the labour market.

According to the ILO research, up to 374,000 workers were working in areas directly impacted by floods and landslides. If these workers are unable to work or find quality employment elsewhere, this represents potential earnings losses of $ 48 million per month.

The agriculture and fisheries sectors were severely hit. Up to 23% of rice-cultivating land has been affected by floods, while preliminary estimates of output losses in the tea industry could be as high as 35%. In the tea sector, smallholder farmers, who account for 70% of sectoral output, have been disproportionately affected.

In light of these conditions, the brief calls for immediate measures to support the restoration of livelihoods. 

The ILO recommends emergency cash assistance and the widespread rollout of employment-intensive early recovery activities that ensure decent working conditions in the short term. These should be combined with specific sectoral support and assistance to MSMEs to swiftly restore means of production.

The ILO notes that such programs must prioritise the most vulnerable, be conflict-sensitive, work through workers’ and employers’ organisations, and interact directly with community stakeholders. 

Medium-term recovery efforts should integrate lessons from this event to improve coverage, adequacy and coordination between wage protection, social protection, employment policies, and disaster risk management frameworks, to strengthen resilience against future shocks.