War of the Alphas

Last week saw many upcoming teams raise their game quite steeply to unexpected levels that really gave the top guns a scare. As they say, what doesn’t kill you only makes you stronger, and Peter’s and Royal shall be busy remedying their respective shortcomings that allowed their opposition to dominate and caused them to stray. In this forecast, we focus only on the three games everyone’s eyes are glued to.

In spite of three epic clashes scheduled for this weekend between the elite schools’ rugby teams, shockingly all interest is on just one encounter. Any guesses? Many direct inquiries were received from enthusiasts about our predictions on who will win on Sunday at Havelock Park. The answer, as always, was: try not to predict the winner, but relish every skill, action, sentiment, and moment of the game until the more persistent team steals the day. However, since we cannot stop thinking about how things will turn out, here are some thoughts to ponder until the weekend.

St. Peter’s vs. Wesley at SPC Grounds on 23 May:

St. Peter's College

Wesley College

While the Double Blues commenced their season on a very high note, looking to challenge even the likes of Trinity, their massive defeat against them at the Knockouts seems to have demoralised them, as they have only appeared to get weaker with every game. The Brigade, on the other hand, has progressively ironed out its shortcomings, including the crippling one where they initially played rugby without following many of the rules of the game. Therefore, at this juncture, the Bamba Brigade playing at home makes them the top dogs in this fixture. The rugby fraternity’s only hope is that the Double Blues rise to the occasion and deliver an epic thunder by unleashing the same attacking rugby with which they impressed all of us at the Knockouts.

Statistical comparisons become unrealistic based on the nature of the opposition faced last weekend. Since the Ananda games were played in dry and wet conditions by Wesley and Peter’s respectively, those statistics may not be comparable either. Therefore, let’s go back to the encounter between these two teams at the Knockouts.

This was a close game that balanced on a tightrope, with SPC trailing by merely seven points at the long whistle. If you noticed, the Peterites’ sole downfall in this game was due to their penalty count, and we professed earlier that if SPC could restrict their offences to below 10, they could beat any team in this League. The Bamba Brigade has accomplished this now, as they conceded only nine penalties in their last game against Ananda. That indicates they have either repented or found that lost book filled with the laws of rugby. In whichever case, the Double Blues have to do far better than what they did at the Knockouts.

Royal vs. S. Thomas’ at Royal Complex on 23 May:

Royal College

S. Thomas' College

Although the Thomians are the favourites in this encounter, purely due to the momentum they have presently gained, the Royal Tuskers shall have the edge in skillsets, especially those required to overcome their arch rivals. Nevertheless, the Thomians possess a fine chance of breaking a decade-long hoodoo to hold and caress their most precious rugby stake, the Michael Gunaratne Trophy.

Whenever it comes to any Roy-Tho sporting event, previous performances and statistics do not matter, as the teams receive revitalised enthusiasm and fresh energy infused primarily by the traditional rivalry that fuels their mindsets and powers their gameplay execution. Since we cannot simply conclude a forecast by stating this fact, let’s go ahead and examine the aggregated statistics from the Kingswood and Zahira encounters.

 The Thomians seem to be weaker on the defensive front, conceding frequent penalties when being attacked inside their 22, which usually means that the attacking team is more likely to succeed in scoring tries once they enter the 22.

Royal is expected to receive at least one yellow card in this game, which the Thomians could capitalise on to score a few tries.

The Tuskers’ ball handling appears quite fragile at this stage, considering that these statistics were obtained while playing against the same opposition. However, sudden declines in ball handling are minor psychological issues that could be corrected within a week so as to minimise, or even completely eliminate, unforced errors.

The unforced errors stated above include passing and receiving mistakes that usually do not result in loss of possession, but certainly result in loss of territory and severely impact attacking momentum.

Now let’s compare the aggregate defensive capabilities of each team.

There were no lineout turnovers accomplished by these teams in the past two games. However, the Thomians have managed to disrupt the opposition’s hooking on a few occasions. Disruptions are considered different from turnovers in this analysis.

The Thomians have shown competency in securing turnovers at breakdowns, but pulling this off against the calibre of the Tuskers will be challenging.

Both teams are more or less equal in their ability to force holding-on offences.

The Thomians are extremely vulnerable to maul attacks. Although only one maul has crossed their tryline, other mauls have travelled deep and progressed quite close, with the attacks eventually being finished off through other means. Therefore, every penalty conceded inside their half could potentially be converted into a try.

Thora has a slight edge in the kicking department, with more successful conversions than Royal.

Moreover, STC has also performed marginally better in executing long touch finders during open play, which they could use to invade the opposition’s territory without needing an invitation.

Again, to remind readers that all these comparisons could be thrown out of the window when it comes to a Roy-Tho, as sheer determination and the will to outshine the opponent usually overcome any shortage of skill.

Isipathana vs. Trinity at Havelock Park on 24 May:

Isipathana College

Trinity College

Skills vs. Determination

We all know that Trinity College has elevated itself into a super league of its own, but they are not immortal, as we have seen that any team in this League can be disrupted and thrown off track. Many teams have taken cues from the Thurstanites on how to use these disruptive elements and enhanced them further to successfully disorient the opposition’s pre-planned game. Trinity itself is a team that thrives on such disruptive tactics, but eventually fell prey to the same gimmicks against Thurstan.

The Green Panthers encompass all the basic skills required to take on and counter the mighty Lions, and the rest they shall complement with their pure guts of green. This is exactly why all the non-Pathanians are so eager to find out whether the gruesome Panthers can stop the formidable Lions, because these fans firmly believe that if any team can stop the godly Titans, it would be none other than Isipathana. They have cleverly developed intimidating tactics to sidetrack and derail every objective of every opposition.

As verbal communication between teammates is crucial, Trinity will not have the privilege of wearing earplugs to cut out the constant mind-boggling rambling coming from the home team. Even if the visitors manage to communicate through eye contact and facial expressions while wearing earplugs, they would still need to pay attention to the referee’s calls. Hence, they shall have no option but to overcome the nonstop “Chamoditha talk show” during the game.

The Greens shall also put their various skills to good use and may come out with some novel plays not yet revealed to the public. However, their ball handling will be crucial in this fixture, as advantages played following all kinds of knock-ons could prove fatal. Moreover, Trinity has developed special skills to force knock-ons from their opponents, which usually makes average ball handling look pathetic.

While Pathana has noticeably strengthened its defence, the question of whether it would be sufficient to contain the super Lions will be answered in this match.

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