The day trinity shall diminish to a dyad

Isipathana

Kingswood

Royal College

S. Thomas' College

St. Joseph's College

St. Peter's College

Trinity College

Wesley College 

-Pix courtesy: thepapare.com 

Dialog Schools Rugby League 2025 – Week 6 Tactical Forecast 

The undefeated trinity of the 2025 Schools Rugby League shall be reduced to, at best a dual, as the weekend passes us by. With Round #2 of the Top Division League kicking off on the 6th week, we now have all 18 Schools slotted into 3 Segments, viz. Cup, Plate and Bowl, according to the merits they achieved within their respective Groups. This enables almost all the fixtures scheduled for the next four weeks to be balanced, hence highly competitive, which makes every game worth watching. So, brace yourselves for the 36 ultimate thrilling games coming at you in the coming weeks, that shall finally determine the Champions of the respective Crockery Segments.

S. Thomas’ vs Trinity at Big Club Ground on 19 July:

The two unbeaten teams from Group 2 and 3 shall brace Paws and Fins by the seaside, in a scruffle for survival on a thick treacherous Valley that leads to the Treasure Trove, guarded by the mighty King Kong. Unlike in the previous instance when the very teams met at the Knockouts earlier this year, the odds seem to have shifted to be evenly balanced to a point that it is hard to distinguish the Top dog from the Underdog, as both teams have been performing admiringly well since then, consequently making it seem like it could be anyone’s game. Therefore, it becomes necessary to drill-in, dissect and differentiate the characteristics of each side to be able to compare element to element, that would help us determine at least the breed of the Dogs, pre-match.

Trinity’s game has remained more or less the same, but with some variations of Maul offensives added to their arsenal, while others may continue to remain a mystery until the time comes for their revelation. Their Maul defence has been hardened as well in many facets without conceding a single penalty for collapsing, possibly in preparation to face the Mastery of Mauls at the Bradby, which might make it quite impossible for any opposition to score Tries off Mauls. It is highly unlikely that STC could generate adequate power, even from their refined mauling techniques combined with optimum strengthening of their Pack, to overpower their counterparts. Just in case they are able to, Trinity possesses proven defending skills to defeat Packs that are much stronger than them, such as Wesley, from gaining many yards with their Maul offensives. Therefore, the only remote chance for STC to score Tries off Mauls is through a 5m lineout. Nevertheless, the paranoids may still expect further unseen defence tactics to be revealed by the Lions, when such situations present themselves.

While Trinity has verified that it possesses one of the best defences in the League by defending its Den admirably, even after conceding 25 penalties against the calibre of Isipathana, STC’s has been beefed up to a level that can be sufficiently sustained by the points looted by their menacingly attacking rugby. However, looting may not be viable against the quality of Trinity defence, and therefore STC may have to opt to trickle stealing points off the visitors, with some unexpected surprise moves, as the visitors’ exquisite fringe defence defies chances to score Tries off ‘pick and drives’ as well. 

Trinity conceded 10 penalties in their last outing against Royal, and half of them occurred in their own grid. Although STC’s place kicking is good enough to secure 15 penalty points, hypothetically assuming that all of them are within kicking range, those could be 5 rare opportunities to advance further and score maximum points. Thus, the timely decision as to when to kick to touch, and when to kick at Goal would be crucial. While scoring Tries via Mauls and ‘pick ‘n drives’ seem highly challenging, the hosts’ options to score Tries become limited, limiting them to ‘pick and gos’ by their Forwards, and potential gimmicks by their Backline to distract and infiltrate the Trinity defence. Interestingly the Thomians have conceded 24 points each in their earlier games against Trinity, and versus Pathana a week ago. However, the capabilities of the two teams in question have evolved since the first week of May, for us to conclude that all STC needs is 24-plus points to seal the game, in which case a few Drop Goals and a converted Try would do the trick in combination with the 15 penalty points on offer.

STC does have all chances of stopping Trinity’s Maul Tries. This is owing to the visitors’ weak lineouts, that can be further disrupted by the hosts’ contesting skills, that in turn should prevent Trinity Mauls from forming altogether, especially close to STC’s line of prestige. This should disarm one of Trinity’s most powerful weapons, transforming the game to be slightly even, that gives the home team a chance for redemption. Based on the facts set forth, the readers may draw their own conclusions as to who would have the edge to be the Topdog, and who shall be labelled the Underdog.

Isipathana vs Wesley at Havelock Park on 19 July:

Wesley has suddenly become the team to beat this season, and everyone who’s gaze was set on the prize, now sees only the Double Blues between them and their destiny. This was prophesied in our pre-season Teaser Part I as, ‘Wesley College is expected to be a force to recon with this season and is likely to pose the greatest threat to all opponents chasing after the coveted Titles’. However, now it seems more like they are driven towards what was mentioned at the end, in the same article. ‘In duty and in honour bound to his alma mater, Head Coach Hendry Terence shall continue to elevate the Band of Double Blues to their peak on his third year, and possibly with an adamant intention to bring one home’.

Isipathana is a scarred Panther waiting to return to its ravaging form; however, their game has been on the downhill since the beginning of the League, and their form never ascended from the Knockout Final towards its peak this season. It is rather disappointing to the rugby loving community, not to mention the hard-core Pathana Fanbase, that none of the Pathana wins in the League was convincing enough, let alone their performance in each of them. The fact that Rajans, who are yet to find their first win this season, scored their highest points against Pathana, goes to show how poor their defence and form have been, although some analysts assumed the degraded performances to be a masquerade.

As we are comparing a team that has peaked on its third year, to a relatively new outfit that lost two-thirds of its frontline players from last year, who are desperately trying to find their own, there would be no use in comparing strengths, weaknesses and statistics, as the side that beat Wesley, coming from behind a few months ago is no more. However, the undisputable fact still remains that the Green Machine dominates and thrives by sheer passion rather than skills, thus a comparison of skills and stats shall be thrown out the Window, if they could only manage to bring their ‘Gaema’ back.

St. Peter’s vs Royal at SPC Ground on 19 July:

The once-bitten duo will face each other to redeem their confidence, in order to venture into further challenges up ahead in the League. The Brigade Forwards have muscled themselves up considerably and are probably only second to Wesley in the league, with well-defined and powerful Forwards attacks and tactful defence. However, their elusive running game is a certain drop from the previous seasons, that puts them on par with the visitors, who will use this opportunity to test their defence against the Brigade Backlines.

The Royal Tuskers would immensely benefit from defending the Peterite Mauls as well, which is expected to be much stronger than of Trinity’s. However, they are highly unlikely to return the favour to the hosts, as they are expected to play a reactive game of rugby consisting of just the basic offensive skills. Nevertheless, they will aim to curtail their penalties to a bare minimum, while trying to slot-in as many as they can, and from as far as they could, reminiscing scathing memories from the Bradby past.

Although the Royal 23 would try their level best to flick a win within the framework that they are restricted to work inside, they should defend with purpose, which wouldn’t make things easy for the Peterites. Other factors that wouldn’t make matters easy for the Pete’s is as follows.

• Their penalty count, which is almost 50% higher than of Royal’s, based on the last two games.
• Their Place and Touch Kicking that falls far short of an elite rugby team’s capability.
• Inability to defend Maul attacks without collapsing it, although SPC might get away with this as the visitors are highly unlikely to attack with their Mauls.

Based on the above, Royal is likely to kick every penalty offering, from every angle, and from every distance towards the giant Sticks, while SPC struggles to convert its Tries; even the easy ones. Apart from these, the two sides have comparable skills in attack and defence, that would make it an evenly poised game. The ultimate question is, if the Brigade can score enough points to outweigh their blunders and shortcomings to be ahead of the Tuskers on the 70th minute?

Zahira vs D.S. Senanayake at Zahira Ground on 19 July:

While some lost hope in Zahira Rugby following their two consecutive lacklustre outings, the Lads surprisingly sprung right back into their top form in their last two games, exhibiting what they showcased initially in their first League match. Although they are yet riddled by disciplinary issues that keep diminishing their game, their rapid, attacking rugby with a touch of stunning innovations, just might make up for it. They have improved in their Place Kicking, and have just begun turning over at the lineouts, that might pose a problem to the visitors’ Maul offensives. To top it all off, their three quarters have hit their peak form, and could prove to be quite a menace to all the defenders / tacklers in their paths, throughout the game.

The Donz who had a close game against SPC shall be brimming with confidence and would mostly rely on their Forwards to do the maximum damage via Mauls and ‘pick ‘n drives’. This is where the hosts would have a problem, as their Maul defence has been quite weak, resulting in repeated ‘collapsing maul’ infringements, while they are yet to diffuse and turn over possession at a Maul this season. Zahira shall also face the toughest ‘pick ‘n drive’ assaults since their Kingswood game, that is destined to come at them continuously, hence their corresponding defence skills and endurance would be tested to the core, all through the game. 

DS has considerably improved their discipline by conceding a miserly 5 penalties in their last game against the tough defending Champ, hence keeping it low in this encounter shouldn’t be a problem at all, which should grant them a steep advantage over Zahira’s 15 counts of violations. The visitors are significantly better in their Maul defence, as they have managed 4 Maul turnovers so far, and have never collapsed a single Maul this season.

Kingswood vs St. Joseph’s at Bogambara on 19 July:

Although Joes started off the League on a mellow note, they have gone through the process and came out with an ultimate dominating performance they were well known for just prior to the Pandemic. Sri Sumangala, the team they dominated was not a pushover side anymore, that possessed its own dominating elements, but sporadic in nature, and at a mediocre level. Besides, the primary disposition of dominance is usually manifested in the mindset and drive of a team, rather than the exquisite execution of skills alone, although the latter matters as well. If Joes’ last outing wasn’t a one-day-wonder, this fixture is guaranteed to be an epic middleweight blockbuster, as Kingswood has just begun ascending to its peak form and dominance as well.

Joes prefer to run the Ball straight into their oppositions with their Forwards, while their counterparts are capable of putting hard stops to their ramming. Although both sides love and thrive on pick and drive onslaughts, Joes are able to defend it slightly better than Kingswood. Mauls are Kingswood’s second choice of attack, and shall be used at optimal junctures, while Joes are not bad at it either. However, the hosts have been able to defend Maul attacks without collapsing them since recently, while Joes have struggled slightly in that aspect.

The Kingswood Backline has recently hit the bottom of the convex curve, and is likely to rise sharply in speed, agility and super-quick Ball transfers, leading to superfast running rugby, that may not be matched by the usually slower Joes. If the Randles Boys are able to execute this newly upgraded skill flawlessly, then the home team could end up dominating this game instead.

Footnote:

Though we love to, unfortunately we are unable to preview all 9 games to be played each weekend due to time limitations and therefore are compelled to accommodate only around 4 forecasts each week.

(The analyst can be reached at: 

[email protected].)