Sri Lanka at $ 200 b: Big dream, broken foundations and private sector to blame?

You can't brand a default: Nation branding doesn't come from ad campaigns. It comes from what people say about you

Sri Lanka can be an over $200 billion economy by 2029. The math works. We crossed $ 100 billion in 2025 after crashing to $ 74 billion in 2022. History shows $ 100 billion is a "tipping point" — exports, tourism and FDI accelerate exponentially after it.

But here's the hard truth: No country brands itself to $ 200 billion on slogans alone. It brands itself on trust, and right now, our share of voice globally is not about growth. It is about scandals.

The credibility crisis

You can't brand a default: Nation branding doesn't come from ad campaigns. It comes from what people say about you.

And what are they saying? Rs. 13.2 billion NDB bank fraud: One of the largest banking frauds in recent history. Governance failures at the heart of our financial system. Central Bank $ 2.5 million Treasury Scandal. SriLankan Airlines Chennai Scam and now the $ 1 billion in suspicious money transfers: 4 banks under investigation for alleged import bill proceeds manipulation. This is not a "technical issue." This is capital flight optics in real time.

The expert Simon Anholt is right: A nation's brand is built by actions over time. Right now, our actions are telling global investors, tourists, and partners: "High risk." We can't sell "Wonder of Asia" to the world while we're explaining "Scandal of the Week" at home.

South Asia is moving

We're still explaining ourselves. South Asia grew by 7% in 2025, led by India at $ 4.1 trillion → $ 7.5 trillion by 2028/29. Tamil Nadu alone grew at 11.7%. Maldives: Heading for crisis, but still with 4 tourism plans in 35 years. Policy consistency. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal: All broken, all reforming.

Where is Sri Lanka?

After 25 years, exports to India are $ 1 billion. Imports from India are at $ 4.3 billion. Our share of India's $ 720 billion import bill is only 0.1%. We have over 90 weekly flights from Colombo and over 20 daily from Jaffna, plus ferries coming. The connectivity is there. The strategy isn't.

We talk about FTA. India executes it.

Tourism

$ 12.1 billion lost to inconsistency. Research shows if we had followed global trends from 1966 to 1982, we'd be at 8.2 million tourists and $ 12.1 billion in revenue today. 1.4 million jobs. Equal to exports and remittances.

Instead, we got:

"Paradise Island" → "Pearl of the Indian Ocean" → "You'll Come Back" → "Land Like No Other" → "Small Miracle" → "Wonder of Asia" → "So Sri Lanka" → "You'll Come Back for More" again.

We have had a series of taglines in 50 years. India had "Incredible India" through 4 governments.

Maldives had "Sunny Side of Life" and only 4 master plans in 35 years.

Tourism is the first sector to benefit when a national brand strengthens. But tourists don't book a country that can't book its own policy for more than 2 years.

We are at -1.4% YoY arrivals in 2026 air travel costs, and no carrying capacity plan for Sigiriya, Yala, Minneriya. We're selling desire without delivering hygiene, theme parks for families, or local supply chains.

Sri Lanka is trying to sell "So Sri Lanka" while headlines sell "Scandal in Sri Lanka". Sad day for Sri Lanka, but the naked truth is that most of these scandals are private sector led, though we are crying out for "Governance by the public sector." Let's accept it, the current Government is doing a good job at Governance but the private sector is not supporting this effort

The $ 200 billion path: Reforms

Not rhetoric, but to hit $ 200 billion and avoid another default, we need $ 9 billion reserves by end-2026 and $ 13 billion by 2027. That won't come from hope. It comes from 4 hard dollars: tourism, exports, FDI, remittances.

That means:

1. Policy Consistency Law: 8-10-year master plans for Tourism, Exports, Investment. No political interference. Jail time for violating procurement.

2. Financial System Clean-up: Prosecute the NDB, Treasury, Airline, and $ 1 billion transfer cases publicly. Recover money. Brand trust is built in courtrooms, not ad agencies.

3. Infrastructure and Supply Chain: Stop importing food and spirits for tourists. Build theme parks for the "Fullnest" family segment. Fix sanitation at sites.

4. India Integration: Deep FTA plus services CEP. $ 1 billion in exports to India is embarrassing for a neighbour 30 minutes away.

The bottom line

Yes, the private sector is resilient. Yes, we crossed $ 100 billion. But a $ 200 billion economy with a $ 100 billion brand value requires one thing India, Korea and China did: "align what you say with what 

you do".

Japan sold quality because Toyota delivered quality. Korea sold K-brands because Samsung delivered. China sold BYD, Shein and Huawei because the state backed them for 20 years.

Sri Lanka is trying to sell "So Sri Lanka" while headlines sell "Scandal in Sri Lanka". Sad day for Sri Lanka, but the naked truth is that most of these scandals are private sector led, though we are crying out for "Governance by the public sector." Let's accept it, the current Government is doing a good job at Governance but the private sector is not supporting this effort.

We have the wind at our back. Oil at over $ 100, Middle East drag, global slowdown — all real.

But if we don't fix governance by the private sector and policy consistency now, we will miss this cycle too. And there won't be another $ 100 billion to lose.

$ 200 billion is possible. But only if we stop branding the country in negativity and start building it.

(The author is Vice Chairman, World Rural Tourism Council and serves on private sector boards in Sri Lanka and South Asia.)