Further shakeups to alter course of the League

We have already seen clear signs from many teams who have taken Trinity Rugby as their role model to improving the quality of ball handling, containing their unforced errors to a jaw dropping couple, while a few others have followed Royal’s renewed path towards the heavens in crunching their sinfulness. This shows clear motivation from our nation’s coaches, taking their first steps towards excellence, with non-egoistic mindsets to learn, improve and evolve schools’ rugby in Sri Lanka.

The first week saw some teams being unstable in their execution, but some of them will stabilise on week 2, while the rest should fall in line on the 3rd week, that would guarantee to intensify the League further. Though a few potential upsets are on the cards this weekend, we may not be able to accurately predict which ones they would be, like we predicted the Summa and Thurstan wins last week. We have handpicked only a couple of fixtures for this forecast, which we believe won’t be one sided.

St. Peter’s vs. St. Joseph’s at Bamba on 2 May:

This Joe-Pete encounter shall be hosted by the Bamba Brigade, and would be the highlight of the weekend. Joes had no option, but to improve themselves steeply within a short period of time, as this fixture is one of the most important in their gaming calendar. Last weekend they professed that their League strategy is to be back playing bull in China shop, shaking and rattling their opponents using sheer muscle power. How this would pan out against another well-conditioned, but comparatively smaller outfit, would be an interesting contest to be witnessed at the SPC grounds on Saturday.

Speed vs. might would be the name of the game, with other parameters such as offenses and ball handling to severely impact the equation. In the event of the other parameters remaining comparable, we have seen that speed usually wins the Try scoring race, considering the fact that the Forward accomplices are not pushovers, in a literal sense. This usually allows the smaller speedsters to flash through, under the nose of the not-so-fast, bulky defenders. However, the other parameters are deemed to influence this encounter in a major way, hence what corrections each team has decided to make in the runup to this game would prove critical.

Ball handling is more or less comparable in both sides, but the offenses count could go haywire abruptly and unpredictably for both, that may decide the fate of the brothers. Joes would be in a better position to achieve maximum yardage in finding long-distance touches,that would land them right smack in the middle of the ornaments on display, which may result in high-value insurance claims for damaged Chinaware.

Isipathana vs. D.S. Senanayake at Havelock Park on 2 May:

Although both teams are capable of attacking with purpose, Isipathana possesses superior infiltration capabilities with which they will keep trying to dominate the entire duration of the game, which should give them a definite edge over DS. The following stats are obtained from week 1 of the League, as the Knockout stats are now obsolete.

The basic stats are comparable except in the case of ball handling, where Pathana has to improve further. Sticking to the same number or worse, would deprive the Greens of scoring additional Tries, and places their opponents in a position to chase them down. DS would certainly have to bring their penalty count down to 8, if they are to stand a chance in this game, as the Machine will be hard to stop once the ball is loaded, unless the ball ejects on its own.

DS shall invite an unwanted Monkey on its back unless it could curtail its offenses, especially the ones committed inside its grid. The Green Machine is equipped with long-range touch finding weaponry, that would be used to launch itself deep behind enemy lines, and then commence its onslaughts from there. As the stats show, Pathana is quite capable of finishing its Maul attacks, failing which, shall turn to its battering rams to create the overlaps for their speedy Backs to finish off the attacks in the other corner.

Stats indicate that Pathana is vulnerable to P&Ds, while DS is strong in that suit. This would make perfect sense, as it would be a tad harder for the DS Backs to get past the green defenders, and therefore the DS Forwards may have to carry out bulk of the work in this encounter.

Thurstan vs. Royal at Sugathadasa Stadium on 3 May:

All eyes are likely to sway towards this fixture, following the heroics of the Thurstanites who fished out a huge catch last week, thus continuing their quest to uncover each team’s Kryptonite, causing the opposition camps to toss and turn in their beds at night, wondering what’s cooking inside Coach Shamlie’s cunning head.

However, this time, they are up against a top tier team who doesn’t miss many tackles, and are far more superior in fitness than their previous opponents. Although Thurstan can last the full 70 minutes in terms of endurance, how their Backs and Forwards would get past the Tuskers’ defence would be the key question. Would they be equipped with the necessary skillsets for aerial strikes like the Trinitians? We would have to wait until Sunday to find out.

While Thurstan enjoys attacking with Mauls, Royal has shown weakness in defending them without collapsing. On the contrary, Thurstan would be clearly susceptible to Pick & Drive attacks, as they conceded 3 Tries against the mediocre Thomian Forwards, hence the Royal Forwards’ might might prove more than a handful. Although Thurstan’s defence formation and tackling has been quite decent, would it be good enough to contain the strong wild Tuskers, from breaking loose from their chains, is something that we shall discover on Sunday at the Stadium.

Prince of Wales vs. Ananda at Air Force Ground on 3 May:

The fresh prince who entered ‘Segment A’ is set to make some waves, possibly beginning with this outing, as they face the wrath of the Nande army in their own battleground at Ratmalana. If one may ponder as to whether an upset could be conceivable in this encounter, the facts are presented henceforth.

Although the fresh Prince of the top Division suffered a heavy defeat at the hands of the League runners-up of yesteryear, they showed courage, class and potential to threaten and tear down lower tier sides. Considering the following stats obtained from last week, would help paint an outline of their capabilities.

The prince may have to work on its ball handling skills a bit, but must pay serious attention to the restart kicks which were hideous last week, as 3 of them were kicked fully out. Their discipline also requires slight improvement to get it to below 10, but nevertheless, this was a dream start when considering the opponent, they were up against. Nande’s game discipline and the subsequent sinbins may cost them dearly in this game, if not curtailed.

While the offenses being almost equal, we must consider as to how each team would use their chances. Both sides excel in long-haul touch finders, that would get them into the opposition’s danger zone. Prince could not score any P&D Tries against Wesley, as the latter’s defence was way out of their League. However, against a mediocre defence that Ananda possesses, the Welsh Forwards could have a field day, provided their fitness holds constant. It must be noted that Ananda conceded more than 2 Tries under P&D and Pick & Go attacks by Joes’ Forwards, thus shall be tremendously vulnerable against the formidable Welsh onslaughts, especially in the opening half, that might swing the game along with the limelight towards the fresh newcomers.

Kingswood vs. S. Thomas’ at Trinity Rugby Stadium on 4 May:

Both team shall compete in this encounter like famished wild wolves for a win. The Thomians who have been struggling with ball handling, jiggling it all around the park would have their work cut out, going back to basics with their junior coaches. Nevertheless, this may not help their forced handling error count, that might accumulate up to 5 in this game, owing to Kingswood’s relevant tackling skills. While Randles Hill rugby has peaked close to Mount Everest in comparison to Mount Lavinia, to a depth that isn’t even comprehendible to the Lavinians, their unending list of “issues” could severely hamper their chances to become victorious in this game. The following stats are obtained from last week.

Kingswood may never get a chance to reign schools’ rugby, unless they learn to conquer their nerves to adhere to the laws of the game. No number of skills or technical knowhow can save the day at the 11th hour, more than composure, adherence and discipline could. Needless to reiterate that they have clear unhealed scars from last season to prove this point. Their place-kicking boots may need some buffing, if they are looking to extend their competitive edge in this game. 

Although the stats state that the Thomians are savvier in scoring through Pick and Drives, they will be challenged by the most skilful wily fox in the forest that swipes the ball clean. Thus, their Pick & Drive scoring chances shall heavily depend on the cohesion of their support play. However, perusing the above stats, the hosts may end up inviting the visitors into their front porch for repeated high Tea sessions, way too many times than necessary or appropriate. Conversely, Kingswood shall have a better chance in drilling through the visitors’ defence using their strong P&D skills.

As per the defence stats, the Randles Hill gang possesses an impeccable defence mechanism against Pick & Drive attacks. In fact, they have conceded only a solitary P&D Try at the Knockouts against Joes this season. On the contrary, the Lavinians conceded four P&D Tries at the Knockouts, but none last week as it wasn’t attempted by Thurstan. However, Kingwood is still vulnerable to overlap Tries due to their inefficient drift defence, which the Thomians could capitalise using their nippy three quarters, after faking a few P&D onslaughts.

(The analyst can be reached at: aruncmb @gmail.com)