2025 kicks off with global air cargo demand up 3.2% in January

Monday, 31 March 2025 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for January 2025 global air cargo markets, showing:

Total demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometres (CTK), rose by 3.2% compared to January 2024 levels (3.6% for international operations) for an 18th consecutive month of growth.
Capacity, measured in available cargo ton-kilometres (ACTK), increased by 6.8% compared to January 2024 (7.3% for international operations).

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “January marked 18 consecutive months of growth for air cargo, but the month’s 3.2% year-on-year (YoY) growth is a moderation from double-digit peaks in 2024. Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9% decline from December as cargo load factors also declined by an average of 1.5%.”

“While external factors such as trade growth, declining fuel costs, and expanding e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, it is important to closely watch the evolution of market conditions at this time. In particular, the wild card is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the US Trump administration. Fortunately, the air cargo industry is well practiced at dealing with shifts in the operating environment,” he added.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

YoY, industrial production rose 2.6% in December. The global goods trade grew for a ninth consecutive month, reporting a 3.3% increase in December.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50 mark for January, indicating growth. At 50.62, this was the highest reading since July 2024. The PMI for new export orders rose to 49.37, remaining just shy of the 50-mark, which is the growth threshold.
In January, consumer inflation in the US and in Europe both rose by 0.1% to 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively. Chinese consumer inflation rebounded to 0.5% in January, after progressively falling to 0.1% in the previous four months.

January regional performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 7.5% YoY demand growth for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 10.9% YoY.
North American carriers saw a 5.3% YoY demand growth for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 7.5% YoY.
European carriers saw a 1.3% YoY demand growth for air cargo in January. Capacity increased 3.5% YoY.
Middle Eastern carriers saw an 8.4% YoY demand decrease for air cargo in January, the slowest among the regions. Capacity decreased by 1.2% YoY.
Latin American carriers saw an 11.2% YoY increase in demand growth for air cargo in January, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 10.6% YoY.
African airlines saw a 3.4% YoY decrease in demand for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 5.4% YoY.

Trade lane growth: Most international routes experienced growth in January. Airlines are benefitting from rising e-commerce demand in the US and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean shipping.

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