The new Silk Route

Wednesday, 11 March 2026 00:22 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Geopolitical turbulence and the strategic opportunity for Sri Lanka’s aviation assets

The escalating tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel have once again exposed the fragility of the global aviation map. For three decades, the great Middle Eastern “super-connectors” Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways built a dominant global network on the promise of geographic efficiency, linking Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australasia through mega hubs in the Persian Gulf.

Yet the very geography that enabled their success now exposes a structural vulnerability. When geopolitical crises disrupt airspace across Iran, Iraq, or the Levant, the efficiency of this hub and spoke model is immediately compromised. In such a volatile environment, global aviation will increasingly demand redundancy and resilience in its infrastructure.

This emerging need presents Sri Lanka with a strategic opportunity. The underutilised infrastructure of Bandaranaike International Airport and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport positions the island as a potential secondary aviation node in the Indian Ocean, capable of supporting global carriers during periods of instability while strengthening the commercial value of the nation’s aviation assets as well as cut losses of the national carrier SriLankan.

The limits of the “Super-Hub” model

The modern Middle Eastern aviation model depends fundamentally on stable and open airspace. The hub airports of Dubai International Airport, Hamad International Airport, and Abu Dhabi International Airport function as global crossroads because aircraft can operate the shortest routes between continents.

However, regional conflict disrupts this efficiency in several ways:

Airspace disruption

Military tensions frequently force airlines to avoid large portions of Iranian, Iraqi, and Levantine airspace. Flights connecting Europe to Asia must then take longer southern routes across the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean, increasing flight times and operational complexity.

Rising operational costs

Longer routes translate directly into higher fuel consumption and increased flight time. Airlines must often limit cargo payloads to accommodate additional fuel loads, reducing an important revenue stream. In an industry where margins are thin, such disruptions quickly erode profitability.

Security and insurance risk

Periods of heightened conflict significantly raise aviation insurance costs. Aircraft and crew operating near potential conflict zones face elevated risk assessments, affecting both operational planning and investor confidence.

These pressures do not render the Gulf hub model obsolete, but they reveal a critical weakness, global aviation infrastructure is highly concentrated in a geopolitically sensitive region.

By strategically developing Bandaranaike International Airport and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport while restructuring and potentially privatising SriLankan Airlines, Sri Lanka has the opportunity to transform underperforming state assets into critical infrastructure for global aviation.

Sri Lanka as a strategic secondary node

South of these volatile zones lies Sri Lanka, located along the major air corridors of the Indian Ocean. The island’s aviation infrastructure—particularly Bandaranaike International Airport and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport—offers a rare combination of strategic geography and underutilised capacity.

Importantly, Sri Lanka should not attempt to replace the Middle Eastern mega-hubs. Cities such as Dubai or Doha possess enormous passenger demand, financial ecosystems, and aviation clusters that cannot be replicated easily.

Instead, Sri Lanka’s realistic opportunity lies in becoming a secondary aviation node that supports global networks in several specialised rules:

A reliable technical stop hub for refueling and crew rotations
A diversion airport during airspace closures or emergencies
A cargo and logistics node serving the South Asian market
A maintenance and operational support base for airlines operating across the Indian Ocean

Recent regional tensions have already demonstrated this potential. During periods of instability, Sri Lankan authorities placed both airports on standby as technical and diversion hubs for international flights, illustrating their potential role in maintaining operational continuity for long-haul carriers.

A dual-airport strategy for Indian Ocean

Sri Lanka’s aviation strategy should focus on a complementary system between its two international airports.

Bandaranaike International Airport – The operational gateway

Bandaranaike International Airport would function as the primary operational hub for passenger and cargo traffic. As the country’s principal aviation gateway, it already handles the majority of Sri Lanka’s international flights.

Future development should focus on:

rapid turnaround facilities for long-haul aircraft
efficient cargo transshipment services
streamlined crew change and refueling operations
expanded terminal and runway capacity

These upgrades would enable BIA to support increased transit operations without attempting to replicate the massive scale of Gulf hubs.

Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport – The strategic support base

Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport possesses extensive infrastructure but currently operates far below capacity. Rather than competing directly with BIA, Mattala could be repositioned as a strategic aviation support facility.

Potential roles include. technical stops and aircraft staging; long-term aircraft parking; cargo and logistics operations; and aircraft maintenance and repair facilities.

With appropriate incentives—such as competitive landing fees, fuel pricing, and logistics infrastructure—Mattala could become an attractive operational base for airlines operating across the Indian Ocean corridor.

Strengthening South Asian connectivity

Sri Lanka’s geographic position also places it adjacent to some of the fastest-growing aviation markets in the world.

The country sits within easy reach of major population centers in:

India
Bangladesh
Maldives

As passenger and cargo traffic across South Asia continues to expand, airlines will increasingly require regional logistics nodes capable of connecting these markets efficiently.

By providing a stable, neutral aviation platform with strong diplomatic relations across the region, Sri Lanka could serve as an important facilitator of regional connectivity.

Linking aviation strategy to privatisation

The broader strategic objective of positioning Sri Lanka as a secondary aviation node is to increase the attractiveness of the country’s aviation assets to global investors.

Privatisation or long-term concession agreements involving SriLankan Airlines and the nation’s airports would become far more compelling if these assets were seen not merely as domestic infrastructure, but as components of a regional aviation resilience network.

For international investors or airline partners, the proposition becomes significantly stronger when Sri Lanka offers:

a strategically located aviation platform
underutilised infrastructure ready for expansion
access to growing South Asian markets
the potential to support global airline networks during geopolitical disruptions

In this context, the value of Sri Lanka’s aviation sector extends beyond national transport policy. It becomes part of the wider architecture of global aviation resilience.

In an era of rising geopolitical uncertainty, resilience is becoming as valuable as efficiency. If positioned correctly, Sri Lanka could occupy a pivotal place along the new Silk Route of global aviation

Conclusion

The evolving geopolitical landscape has revealed the risks inherent in concentrating global aviation infrastructure within a single region. While the Middle Eastern mega-hubs will remain central to global air travel, airlines increasingly require redundant operational nodes capable of supporting their networks during periods of disruption.

Sri Lanka cannot replace the global hubs of the Gulf. But it does possess the geographic location, infrastructure, and political positioning to become something equally valuable, a stable secondary aviation node in the Indian Ocean.

By strategically developing Bandaranaike International Airport and Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport while restructuring and potentially privatising SriLankan Airlines, Sri Lanka has the opportunity to transform underperforming state assets into critical infrastructure for global aviation.

In an era of rising geopolitical uncertainty, resilience is becoming as valuable as efficiency. If positioned correctly, Sri Lanka could occupy a pivotal place along the new Silk Route of global aviation.

(The author is a Fellow at the Advocata Institute and can be reached via email at [email protected])

The new Silk Route

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