A few weeks ago, I had the pleasure of traveling through this beautiful country. Within just a few days, I left with the unease of someone who had glimpsed both extraordinary potential and deep structural fragility. What struck me was a feeling of déjà vu; it was as if I were looking at my homeland, Greece, 15 years ago. A country in the arms of the IMF, in the midst of a massive crisis, yet a country with immense possibilities. I am taking the initiative, in my professional capacity as an economist, to propose certain strategies that I believe could help Sri Lanka assume the role it truly deserves.
Pillar I: Fiscal consolidation and Investment Grade (The “Foundation”)
As a professional active in Switzerland who carries the lived experience of the Greek crisis, I know well that growth is not the first step; credibility is. Sri Lanka must move out of the “Default” category and aim for “Investment Grade” status within seven years. Without this, every other reform will remain a theoretical exercise.
- Restoring Market Trust: “Sri Lanka 2035” begins by winning back the markets. Unless we convince agencies like Moody’s and SandP, capital will remain prohibitively expensive.
- Fiscal Rule: A constitutional limit on the deficit can be established. International creditors need a guarantee that the fiscal slippage of the past will never be repeated.
- SOE Reform and The “Temasek Model”: The fact that 80% of revenue is spent on public sector salaries and interest payments is unsustainable. I propose the creation of an independent State Investment Fund (similar to Singapore’s Temasek). All loss-making entities (SriLankan Airlines, CEB) should be transferred there, managed by technocrats with international experience, and given a three-year window to become profitable or be privatised.
- Independent Tax Authority: Following the model of Greece’s IAPR (AADE), tax administration must be insulated from political influence. This can ensure a steady revenue flow for the state that could free up 15-20% of the budget for health and education.
- Debt-for-Nature Swaps: Sri Lanka can lead the way by converting part of its external debt into environmental protection investments. Creditors write off debt while the state commits resources to saving tropical forests—a “win-win” model that attracts ESG capital.
Pillar II: Digitalisation and combatting corruption
Digitalisation is not a technological issue; it is a matter of transparency and democracy. And when it comes to democracy, there is no better place to draw lessons from than Greece and Switzerland.
- e-Procurement and Open Data: Every state expenditure, from the smallest supply to the largest infrastructure project, must be visible in real-time. This will eliminate “kickbacks” and restore the trust of creditors and, most importantly, citizens.
- Digital Land Registry (GIS): Uncertainty over land ownership stalls investment. A digital cadastre will allow land to be used as collateral for bank lending, activating the domestic economy.
- Digital ID: This allows the state to automatically identify who is truly vulnerable, reducing waste in horizontal subsidies and creating a robust safety net for the middle class.
- Satellite-First Connectivity (LEO Satellites): Instead of expensive fiber-optic networks in the mountainous hinterlands, Sri Lanka should adopt Low Earth Orbit satellite technology (like Starlink). With minimal infrastructure costs, every village can access 100Mbps speeds, enabling telemedicine and distance learning.
Pillar III: The new growth model (Value over Volume)
Once the foundation is set and fiscal stability is achieved, the country can invest in its comparative advantages:
- Logistics and Maritime Hub: Upgrading ports (Colombo, Hambantota) into “gateways” for South Asia, offering value-added services such as bunkering and free trade zones.
- Wellness and High-End Tourism: Shifting from mass tourism to “Mental Health and Wellness.” Sri Lanka can become the global “Sanctuary” (Ayurveda, Yoga, Buddhism) attracting high-income visitors. At a time when developed societies suffer from chronic burnout, imagine a tourism package tailored specifically for these cases. Increasing the average revenue per tourist must become a national goal.
- Blockchain for Ceylon Tea: Protecting authenticity and securing premium prices in international markets through traceability. Utilising technologies like blockchain can safeguard the Geographical Indication (GI) and provenance of the product.
- Green Grid Connection: An undersea cable to India would make Sri Lanka a net exporter of green energy and fortify the grid against climate crises.
- Natural Capital Accounting: Every investment should be evaluated based on its environmental footprint, treating forests and coral reefs as critical national assets.
Pillar IV: Investing in knowledge capital
- STEM and English: The future belongs to “Knowledge Workers.” Establishing English and coding in schools will make the country competitive against India and the Philippines in the Remote Work sector. Furthermore, it will grant the local population access to infinite information and networks, expanding their horizons.
- Healthcare Digitalisation (The “MyHealth” Model): To reduce mismanagement and improve patient care, Sri Lanka should adopt the successful digitalisation paradigm of the Greek Ministry of Health. Implementing a unified platform similar to the “MyHealth” app—which centralises prescriptions, medical history, and appointments—can eliminate bureaucracy and leaks. Combined with Swiss standards of hospital autonomy, this will ensure that quality services reach even the most remote areas.
- Reversing the Brain Drain: Sri Lanka must actively court its global diaspora. By providing specific fiscal and administrative incentives, the state can encourage the return of scientists and doctors who left during the crisis. This “Reverse Brain Drain” will not only bring back expertise but also the high-standard organisational culture of international systems.
- Fintech and Micro-finance: Empowering smallholder farmers through P2P lending platforms and attracting international Neo-banks (like Revolut or Wise) to break the banking monopoly, making loans more competitive and lowering interest rates.
- Dual Appointments: Collaborating with foreign universities so that a professor can teach for three months in Sri Lanka and nine months in Europe, maintaining a vital academic bridge.
Addressing the social crisis
- The Problem: 26% poverty rate, childhood malnutrition, and dependence on imported seed hybrids.
- The Proposal: The “Nutri-Lanka” Program. A universal free school meal initiative using products sourced exclusively from local producers. This creates guaranteed demand for farmers while solving the critical issue of stunting.
Conclusion
Sri Lanka is not merely in a phase of economic recovery; it stands on the threshold of a structural transformation. The question facing the leadership and the productive elite of Colombo is not whether these reforms are desirable, but whether they are ready to recognise that the traditional growth model has reached its limits in the global market.
The Taprobane of legend and the Sri Lanka of 2035 can meet at a point where tradition encounters technological excellence. The road to prosperity requires a new strategic convergence:
1. Political leadership must act as an accelerator, delegating management to world-class technocratic standards.
2. The business world must invest in sustainability and innovation as the only viable currencies of the future.
3. The state must evolve from a central manager into an agile guarantor of transparency and meritocracy.
As a professional who observes the Swiss devotion to detail and having analysed the lessons of the Greek fiscal adjustment, my conclusion is clear: Investment Grade is not an accounting goal; it is the result of deep institutional maturity.
Sri Lanka has the historic opportunity to become the premier “turnaround story” of the decade in the Indian Ocean.
The tools exist. The path is clear. What remains is the rarest resource of all: the courage to govern.
“There is nothing impossible to him who will try.”
— Alexander the Great
(The author is an economist
and auditor)
