Navigating Trump’s (old) world order

 By mid-December 2024, 63% of registered American voters opposed intervention in Venezuela while only 25% supported it. This includes absolute majorities of Democrats and Independents as well as a plurality of Republicans. The invasion has divided Donald Trump’s own MAGA movement, with leading lights such as Steve Bannon, Margery Taylor Green and Tucker Carlson condemning it as dangerous and a betrayal of the America First policy

By Tisaranee Gunasekara

“Extending the Blessings of Civilisation to our Brother who Sits in Darkness has been a good trade and has paid well… There’s more money in it, more territory, more sovereignty, and other kinds of emolument, than there is in any other game that is played.” 

Mark Twain (To the Person Sitting in Darkness)

 The United States Government launched its final assault on Native Americans in the area around Wounded Knee Creek, a tributary of the White River in South Dakota. In December 1890, the US army massacred around 300 Lakota people, many of them women and children, ending Native American resistance to land-grabbing and forced assimilation. 

With First Nation resistance crushed, the US Census Bureau declared that there was no longer a ‘land frontier’ to conquer. To gain more land, America would have to look beyond its borders. This was what Captain AT Mahan, President of the Naval War College, had in mind when he wrote an article for the Atlantic Monthly tellingly titled The United States Looking Outward. In it he advocated an expansionist foreign policy and emphasised the need to build up American sea power to facilitate it. 

The difference between Donald Trump and most of his presidential predecessors was not that he did something they didn’t but that he said things they were too clever to articulate

Captain Mahan was not the author of American expansionism. In 1823, President James Monroe birthed the Monroe Doctrine, declaring the Western Hemisphere (North and South Americas) the exclusive preserve of the US and, thus, off-limit to European imperial powers. Captain Mahan’s singular contribution was to wrap American expansionism in patriotic linen. As Barbara Tuchman wrote in The Proud Tower, “The motive of the annexationists had been economic self-interest. It took Mahan to transform it into national and fateful importance.” 

Since then, the US had taken the trouble to package its interventions (in the hemisphere and beyond) with moral-ethical arguments - from its 1898 occupation of The Philippines (Paternalism/White Man’s Burden, teaching uncivilised natives ethics and morality) to its 1983 invasion of Grenada (saving American lives). When America under President George HW Bush invaded Panama and abducted its dictatorial leader Manuel Noriega in December 1989, that blatant violation of international law was termed Operation Just Cause and justified on multiple grounds from saving American lives to promoting democracy and human rights. (General Noriega had been a US client for a long time, until he fell from favour in the mid-1980’s).

The difference between Donald Trump and most of his presidential predecessors was not that he did something they didn’t but that he said things they were too clever to articulate. His predecessors were careful to wrap their violations of international law in the clothing of piety. He couldn’t be bothered. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world and its dense, sticky, tar-like crude oil is particularly suitable for US refineries. If the country grew cotton, Nicolas Maduro would still be lording it over in Caracas. But it has oil; and America wants that oil, as Donald Trump said, loud and clear. 

The invasion of Venezuela and the abduction of President Maduro and his wife amount to gross violations of international law. They were acts of aggression which must be condemned in the strongest possible terms. But Donald Trump’s invasion of Venezuela is just a continuum of an American foreign policy from the 1801-1805 war against Ottoman Tripolitania (modern day Libya which was then under Ottoman rule - the First Barbary War) to the active facilitation of Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians. But, unlike most of its post-World War II actions, America’s 2026 invasion of Venezuela lacked even a pretence at multilateralism (even the UK was not informed of the invasion beforehand; American oil companies were in the loop though, before and after). 

Donald Trump’s in-your-face unilateralism marks a return to the way America operated in the world throughout most of the 19th Century – going it alone, with no permanent allies or enemies. Like when America nearly went to war with Britain over Venezuela borders; or tried to annex the Canadian territories, first during the American Independence War and then in 1812. This is the past Donald Trump is taking America to, where America would grab whatever it wants, wherever in the world, taking on anyone in the process, be it longstanding enemies or allies of yesteryear. 

Inviting chaos

In November 2025, the Trump administration presented a document outlining America’s new national security strategy. In true Trump fashion the document made explicit what has always been implicit in American foreign policy, a desire to dominate the world, starting with the Western Hemisphere. 

According to the document, America “wants a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursions or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations. In other words, we will assert and enforce a ‘Trump Corollary’ to the Monroe Doctrine” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf). Its European section, titled Promoting European Greatness, states that Europe is facing ‘civilisational erasure’ within the next two decades due to EU integration and migration and argues that the US must ‘cultivate resistance’ within the continent to Europe’s current trajectory. The document also makes explicit Trump America’s support for far right European parties. “America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism” (ibid). Its Asian section focuses on China’s economic power and trade practices (India is mentioned in passing, Sri Lanka, not at all). 

Economic pre-eminence and unlimited profit are what Trump America wants from and in the world. Trumpian foreign policy’s real pivot is not to any geographic region, but to the past. Venezuela is just the beginning. Donald Trump and his true believers have many other targets: Cuba, the interim president of Venezuela, Colombia, Iran - and Denmark, NATO ally, Western, White, Christian, capitalist. Denmark owns Greenland which owns rare earth minerals. Donald Trump has no ideological blinkers. His blinkers, and his all, are money.

Donald Trump’s Venezuelan adventure is unlikely to end well, despite the lightning success of its initial phase. A rapacious American puppet master who does nothing to mitigate his raw power or conceal his greed won’t be popular with most Venezuelans, whatever they feel about Maduro and his abduction

Soon after the Venezuelan invasion, Trump said that he must “absolutely have Greenland” and refused to rule out the use of force. Denmark is taking the possibility of a forcible takeover of Greenland by America seriously. The Danish PM said the US has no right to annex “any of the three countries in the Danish Kingdom… If the United States decides to militarily attack another NATO country, then everything would stop – that includes NATO and therefore post-Second World War security.” 

When Vladimir Putin began his annexationist war against Ukraine, Donald Trump wrote admiringly, “This is genius,” adding, “We could use that on our Southern border.” According to a Guardian report, some pro-regime Russians are awed by and envious of America’s Venezuelan operation. “The operation was carried out competently,” pro-Kremlin Telegraph channel Dva Mayora wrote; “Most likely this is exactly how our ‘special military operation’ was meant to unfold” (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/05/russia-weighs-up-fall-of-nicolas-maduro-venezuela). As Brazilian president Luis Inacio Lula said, “Attacking countries, in blatant violation of international law, is the first step towards a world of violence, chaos, and instability, where the law of the strongest prevails…” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s war of genocide against Palestinians, and, now, America’s invasion of Venezuela are markers of that old-new world we will have to live in.

The invasion of Venezuela and the abduction of President Maduro and his wife amount to gross violations of international law. They were acts of aggression which must be condemned in the strongest possible terms

Just hours before he was abducted by American interventionist forces, President Maduro was meeting and greeting a high level Chinese delegation. “A fraternal meeting that reaffirms the strong bonds of brotherhood and friendship between China and Venezuela,” he exuded on Telegram; “Through thick and thin!” China has condemned the American invasion in strongest possible terms, but its reaction is unlikely to go beyond strong words. In the coming days and months, Beijing is likely to focus on doing a deal with the US to protect its own interests in Venezuela, from loans to oil supply.

 Be it Venezuela or Ukraine (or Sri Lanka in 1987), the lesson is simple; going head to head with a global or regional power is not the sanest path to take (especially if that power happens to be a close neighbour). A much better example of successfully navigating a dangerous world is provided by Finland and Austria during the Cold War years. Both countries were on the frontlines of the Cold War divide, yet managed to maintain their independence through a policy of neutrality. Neutral, but flexible; Austria allowed its territory to become a hub of espionage while Finland appeased the Soviet Union through economic cooperation. By compromising in areas which were un-fundamental, they retained their sovereignty, survived, and prospered. 

The new mayor of New York Zohran Mamdani provides another example. As a Democratic Socialist cum social liberal, he is the antithesis of Donald Trump. Yet, during his post-election meeting with the President, he was conciliatory rather than confrontational, focusing on inches of mutual agreement while ignoring acres of disagreement. He didn’t change his principles or abandon his policies; just handled Donald Trump with politeness, decency, and humour. He called the President to express his opposition to the invasion of Venezuela even as he continued to be focused on problems of the city. 

Those examples provide a sane path for Sri Lanka through the Trumpian quagmire, especially since America’s pivot to the past is unlikely to outlive the Trump presidency.

The JVP has issued a strong statement condemning American aggression. The NPP Government has been more cautious in its response. While it is necessary to vote against the US invasion at the UN General Assembly, there is no need to divert even an inch from the NPP’s current policy of being on good terms with all regional and global powers. If we are in the crosshairs of a regional or global power for whatever reason, no other power will come to our rescue. Russia had an All Weather Alliance with Venezuela. But Venezuela and Venezuelans are having to weather the ongoing American storm on their own. That is a sobering lesson about how the world really works.  

Donald Trump’s in-your-face unilateralism marks a return to the way America operated in the world throughout most of the 19th Century – going it alone, with no permanent allies or enemies

The two Americas

On 1 January 2026, Zohran Mamdani took office as the new mayor of New York. Over the next four years, America’s richest city with close to 400,000 millionaires and over 60 billionaires (whose collective wealth is more than 5trillion) will be governed by a Democratic Socialist. Mayor Mamdani’s inauguration was chock-full of symbolism, from the singing of the old Suffragist/Labour anthem Bread and Roses to a tearful reference to the failed Grenadian Revolution and its leader Maurice Bishop by the city’s Public Advocate (an elected position first in line to succeed the mayor), Jumanne Williams.         

There were always two Americas – one which was imperialist, expansionist, and aggressive and another which wanted America to shed a moral light. In the 19th Century, Charles William Elliot, a Harvard President opposed the idea of America becoming a military power arguing that “The building of a navy and the presence of a large standing army mean…the abandonment of what is characteristically American” (The Proud Tower). During the Philippine War, a group of eminent American citizens formed the Anti-Imperialist League to oppose official America’s imperialist actions in The Philippines. At the height of the war, the League had a membership of half a million, including such luminaries as Mark Twain who wrote his famous essay, To the Person Sitting in Darkness, as part of the League’s anti-war propaganda.

Be it Venezuela or Ukraine (or Sri Lanka in 1987), the lesson is simple; going head to head with a global or regional power is not the sanest path to take (especially if that power happens to be a close neighbour)

According to media reports, by mid-December 2024, 63% of registered American voters opposed intervention in Venezuela while only 25% supported it. This includes absolute majorities of Democrats and Independents as well as a plurality of Republicans. The invasion has divided Donald Trump’s own MAGA movement, with leading lights such as Steve Bannon, Margery Taylor Green and Tucker Carlson condemning it as dangerous and a betrayal of the America First policy. Consequently, Donald Trump’s absolute and open unilateralism is likely to be abandoned (at least significantly moderated) by the victor of the 2028 presidential election, be it a Democrat or a Republican. 

Donald Trump’s Venezuelan adventure is unlikely to end well, despite the lightning success of its initial phase. A rapacious American puppet master who does nothing to mitigate his raw power or conceal his greed won’t be popular with most Venezuelans, whatever they feel about Maduro and his abduction. The more money spent on pacifying Venezuela means less money to deliver basic needs such as health, education, and affordable housing to poor and even middle class Americans. Donald Trump’s Venezuelan adventure might make him and his business friends rich, but it is likely to make ordinary Americans less well off. The end result would be a major shift in American politics towards the other,  the anti-interventionist, economically progressive and socially liberal America at the 2028 and even the 2026 elections. 

The JVP has issued a strong statement condemning American aggression. The NPP Government has been more cautious in its response. While it is necessary to vote against the US invasion at the UN General Assembly, there is no need to divert even an inch from the NPP’s current policy of being on good terms with all regional and global powers

 All Sri Lanka has to do is stay out of Donald Trump’s myopic sights until then.

Homophobia and Sri Lanka

Homophobia was introduced into Lankan political discourse by Mangala Samaraweera and some of the other Young Turks of the Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga administration, to attack Ranil Wickremesinghe. Later Samaraweera himself was targeted by the Rajapaksas with the same noxious bullet. Throughout these wars, the JVP remained silent. Now it is the NPP’s turn. Whatever one’s opinion of the Government or its education reforms, the poisonous attacks on Prime Minister Harini Amarasuriya need to be condemned in no uncertain terms. 

Sri Lanka’s education ministry has been putting out erroneous text books and test papers for decades. For example, the Grade 11 history book of 2015 mixed up Protestants and Catholics and changed the gender of Visakha founder, Jeremias Dias. Using another such error to create a Pizzagate type of conspiracy theory (in 2016, American hard right alleged that Hilary Clinton and other Democrats were using a Washington pizzeria to carry out a child sex-trafficking ring) to target PM Amarasuriya demonstrates the levels of misogyny in our polity and society. No wonder Sri Lanka has become such a dangerous country for its girls and women.