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Farmer left in the lurch due to drought
Water reservoirs in the country dried up
In an interview with the Daily FT, University of Peradeniya Faculty of Agriculture Senior Professor Prof. Buddhi Marambe elucidates on the need for a collective effort including Private-Public-Producer Partnerships and translating readily available know-how to action in braving unprecedented climate change which has taken a toll on Sri Lanka’s staple.
By Randima Attygalle
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Prof. Buddhi Marambe
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Q: Could you brief on the recent climate patterns that have affected the world at large such as El Niño?
El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean, where the sea-surface temperature of central and eastern part of the Pacific Ocean becomes unusually higher or lower, respectively. This can affect weather worldwide in various degrees. In India there are strong rain falls and floods. In Hawaii there are wild fires, and there are high chances for Australia to be affected by severe drought, forest fires, etc. During El Niño, which is the warm phase, trade winds weaken. Warm water is pushed back east, toward the west coast of the Americas. La Niña has the opposite effect of El Niño, making trade winds even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia.
Both these are natural phenomena and there is no scientific evidence available so far to suggest that they are the results of climate change. Nevertheless, El Niño and La Niña can aggravate the problems of climate change and have global impacts on weather, ecosystems, and economies. El Niño, for instance, warms up the environment and that would naturally add to global warming.
The global average temperature is calculated taking both the North and the South Poles into consideration. At the onset of the Industrial Revolution, the average global temperature was about 13.2 °C. July 2023 was warmest month, and 6 July recorded the highest temperature ever since the Industrial Revolution (17.23 °C), which is 4 °C above average. With the Paris Agreement, the global community has agreed to assure that the increasing temperatures since Industrial Revolution, will be kept below 2 °C at the end of the 21st Century, and take every effort to keep it below 1.5 °C. Right now, since the Glasgow Summit in 2021, the whole world is targeting at 1.5 °C. Though we are not closer to it, now more and more countries are attempting to meet the pledge of becoming carbon-neutral. Sri Lanka has pledged to be carbon-neutral by 2050.
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Q: How prepared were we as a country to brave this natural phenomenon?
July-September is the natural dry period in any normal year in Sri Lanka. The Department of Meteorology (DOM) categorically said that the intensity of current dryness has increased because of El Niño. The DOM claims that they have informed all parties that El Niño is on the cards. Whether authorities, including farmers, took it seriously or not remains a question. Department of Agriculture (DOA) also has a similar practice. Before every season DOA releases an ‘Agro-met advisory’ which gives an indication about the forthcoming seasons. This is sent across the island to provincial DOAs by the National Agriculture and Information Communication Centre (NAICC) of DOA. Whether the messages have reached the farmer through these agencies is a question, and probably in certain parts it has not. Even if the message has reached, some farmers have not taken the warnings seriously.
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Q: What has been the impact of these natural events and climate change on our crops, especially paddy and tea?
The El Niño in 1997/98 resulted in the loss of global GDP of $ 5.1 trillion. El Niño 2015, affected the world dramatically. Coupled with a La Niña in 2016, Sri Lanka had three consecutive failed seasons (2016 Yala, 2016-2017 Maha and 2017 Yala). We had to import 747,000 Mt of rice to feed the nation at a cost of around $ 300 million.
The world went through a La Niña cooling phase in the past three years. Here at home, we had a good rain fall from 2020 to 2022 although we could not harness the benefits, with hind-sighted policy decisions. In 2022, paddy production was drastically reduced by about 34 to 35%, and maize production was reduced by more than 50% and in some areas by more than 65%. The manufactured tea production, which is the most important export agriculture product of ours at the moment, was reduced by about 17%.
We had to import 783,000 mt. of rice last year, spending about $ 292 million. We manufactured around 298 million kg in 2021 and it was 47 million kg less in 2022. According to Tea Factory Owners Association, Sri Lanka lost about $ 232 million due to this yield reduction. The total losses due to these two aspects alone is more than $ 500 million. The chain reaction on loss of maize production, too, was significant. Animal feed industry was severely affected with poor maize yields, as 60% of energy supplement in poultry feed us provided through maize. The result was the hike in chicken and egg prices making it unaffordable, and leading to protein malnutrition. Now we import chicken eggs and meet. In terms of hunger, when food availability is affected, we feel it acutely. However, when it comes to malnutrition or undernutrition, it is chronic. Worries are two-fold: acute and chronic.
There are mandated agencies like the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) which closely monitor these incidents. In March, they came up with an alert that there is a 50-60% chance, and by mid-July they categorically said that El Niño has started greeting us. The experiences with respect to El Niño were not good for Sri Lanka. When it hits, the impact lasts for about one year. We have to now take decisions based on this and not to run away from the challenge.
All countries have started feeling the pressure of El Niño this year. In early July, India announced their decision to stop exporting of non-Basmati rice. Although China is the largest paddy producer, and India is the second largest, when it comes to global trade, India is the largest rice exporter. About 40% of global rice requirement is fulfilled by India. So, importing Indian rice may not be there, the way we want. If we cannot produce adequate quantiles of rice, we may have to look out for alternate import sources. That is why we should be self-sufficient and simply should not compromise our staple.
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Q: Besides the food insecurity, in what other ways could rice scarcity affect the economy?
In the last Maha season the fertiliser didn’t land on time and did not reach our farmers on time. For example, triple phosphate could not be applied at the beginning of paddy cultivation last year. Consequently, paddy yields declined by about 14-15% in the Maha season (October-February). We entered the Yala season (March-September) in such a scenario in March this year anticipating a bumper harvest with fertilisers being readily available. The fear of not producing adequate rice in this year due to the existing dry period has now started haunting people’s mind.
Right now there are many regulations concerning rice. It cannot be used for animal feed or in beer production. In short term these strategies may work. Naturally, people will argue why use paddy/rice meant for human consumption for animal feed, when we are in a short supply. But let us not forget that animal feed industry is critical for the protein input of a population. Unless we support the animal feed industry with maize or any other energy supplement, the consequences would be dire. In the future, with an excess rice production, it is critical that we think of such value addition, be it rice, spices or otherwise.
Q: What is the immediate forecast for our paddy crop this year?
On 15th of each month, DOA publishes a ‘Crop Forecast’ giving expected crop yields to be harvested each season/year. Based on the Crop Forecast on 15 July 2023, we will have adequate rice for the whole year. However, this forecast has not considered the existing situation, but have assumed a normal Yala. The prediction indicate that paddy yield in 2023 would provide little over the requirement of rice for a period of 12 months. This may change owing to any crop losses due to existing dry conditions.
Though Uda walawa was highlighted as a severely affected region due to dryness, let us not forget that this dryness is prevalent in many other parts of the island. People who depend only on rain-fed cultivation with no irrigation are in serious trouble. The DOA and MOA have completed field surveys to assess the yield loss. However, the Crop Forecast expected on 15 August is still to be released, probably due to the delays in the field assessments. This information is critical in making evidence-based decisions on the future. Unpublished information states that despite a yield reduction from the areas affected due to dry weather, we will still have adequate rice to fulfil the requirement this year.
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Q: In terms of irrigation water management, where do you think the hiccups occurred this year?
In an El Niño year, based on past experience, the second inter-monsoon (October-November) would be stronger, with a weaker northeast Monsoon (December-February). ‘No-regret options’ such as starting cultivation on time is what we need to embrace, for us to navigate these seasons without a hiccup. The rationale behind this mantra of the DOA is to use direct rain water, and storage water would not be unnecessarily used or wasted, for land preparation. Thus, rain water collected in reservoirs can also be used for human and animal consumption and wherever possible, for electricity generation. Then we will also have irrigation water, at least to the minimum possible, to support the tail end of the cultivation in next Maha season.
The MOA has been encouraging farmers to cultivate as many paddy fields as possible to make sure the rice production levels would recover. MOA was very positive in announcing that more than 500,000 ha of paddy had been cultivated in Yala season. The usual scenario is for us to cultivate about 450,000 ha. Higher cultivated extents means they need more water.
The farmer organisations under both major and minor irrigation schemes, hold the ‘pre-season cultivation meetings’ or ‘Kanna meeting’ before cultivation season starts. This meeting is attended by the paddy farming communities, a large number of government officials and chaired by the District Secretary. The purpose is to ensure orderly and well-planned cultivation; as to when the bunds would be cleaned, extent to be cultivated, when the first water release would take place, etc.
Therefore, nobody could say ‘we didn’t know’ about the requirement for irrigation water. But there seems a communication gap among agencies responsible for expanding cultivation, and managing water for irrigation and electricity generation, leading to the current crisis. Farming community should also have followed the decisions of the ‘Kanna meetings’. We have once again learned a bitter lesson.
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Q: What do you suggest as means of bridging the communication gap between the farmers and other agencies for a better outcome?
There is collective and shared responsibility. All state and private agencies, universities, farmer organisations, etc. should collaborate and cooperate for the development of agriculture. It is also imperative that the watchdogs of agriculture speak a language that the farmers understands and try to get them on board in implementing the decisions. Just passing the message alone won’t help, they need to see to it that farmers translate it into action.
A fine example that technology transfer in Sri Lanka has worked well is the level at which farmers have embraced and adopted high yielding varieties of paddy developed by DOA. In other areas such as water management, Good Agricultural Practices, etc. the methodology of imparting knowledge should change. Even the latest El Niño warning, despite adequate alerts, most farmers and some policy makers have not taken it seriously. Therefore, we need to revisit the means of communicating with them.
In most of the countries including India, digital technology has been embraced by the farmers. Given the land extent and the population, there is a relative easiness in getting agricultural digitisation done in Sri Lanka. Ideally farmers should receive a message on their smart phones concerning their cultivation. We can’t expect only the government to be doing this. Private sector could step in here. People are information-hungry in general. Once they start learning that the information would benefit them , they will start demanding for it continuously.
Private-Public-Producer Partnerships (PPPPs) are being promoted in India, Vietnam and Thailand in a big way right now. We too have few such initiatives but a lot more needs to be done. PPPPs will have no meaning unless reasonable economic opportunity is given for them to earn profits.
Q: Where do our farmers stand in terms of adopting Good Agricultural Practices (GAPs)?
We need to assure that the Sri Lanka GAP is popularised across borders, and updating it to be more climate-smart. We can’t convert every farmer into a SL-GAP farmer instantly, but it should be a gradual process in a good market-setting. Contribution by the private sector in this process cannot be undermined. The first SL-GAP standard was released by the SLSI in 2016. Stage is already set for paddy/rice, fruits and vegetables, spices, etc. in terms of GAP standards. What now remains is for people to be GAP-savvy.
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Q: What are the most critical issues in the agriculture sector which need to be immediately addressed if our agriculture is to reach the next level?
We have the capacity to turn around things but we should be planning well instead of waiting until disaster hits us dramatically and then start finding solutions. Despite being good planners and policy makers, we should also realise that we have miserably failed when it comes to their implementation. Strategic management skills of authorities become important here.
Our Government is in a ‘compensation trap’. For example, we know what happens with pumpkin every year – once the harvest is brought to the road by the farmers, the government satisfies them by paying compensation but no concrete efforts made to avoid such gluts and post harvest losses, or make use of the excess production through value addition. A change in the line of thinking is a must.
There are risk-based or index-based insurance systems which have been adopted in many countries and we too need to implement these. Here when insurance is adopted in most cases, even the premium has paid by the Government. This is not the way forward.
Further, when Government does business, it cannot regulate. The state should move out from importing and distribution of fertiliser, establishing pricing mechanisms, etc., and bring private sector in, while being the regulatory authority.
When cultivation is delayed, there is a chain reaction because the next season, too, will eventually be delayed. This routine practice should be brought to a common understanding and made a shared responsibility between the Government, other relevant agencies and farmers.
There is also the urgent need for productivity enhancement of land. In this context, different regions need different strategies. In the case of paddy, highest yields are given in the dry and intermediate zones. Wet zone’s paddy yield is relatively low. Hence, more investments into the wet zone’s paddy cultivation won’t do marvels. We need to be realistic, and focus more on dry and intermediate zones to enhance paddy productivity. Crop diversification and crop-animal integration would no doubt increase land productivity and profitability. Growing low water-requiring crops and incorporating animals to the system where possible, will add such multiple benefits.
In terms of research, we have come a long way. What is urgent right now is for the public, especially the farmer community to make use of these tools for the betterment of agriculture.
Finally, the National Agriculture Policy on Food and Feed Crops focusing on all discussed above, is almost nearing completion. This should be adopted by the Government sooner than late and implemented across the country if the agriculture sector to see a leap jump forward.
In most of the countries including India, digital technology has been embraced by the farmers. Given the land extent and the population, there is a relative easiness in getting agricultural digitisation done in Sri Lanka