Extreme consequences of “Super El Niño” – Are we prepared?

Extreme conditions may impact global temperature

“National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientist Nathaniel Johnson has warned that this year’s transition towards El Niño could be among the fastest on record.”

What is a “Super El Niño”?

Under normal climatic conditions, trade winds push warm surface waters across the Pacific Ocean towards Asia and Australia. During an El Niño event, these winds weaken, allowing warm water to shift eastward towards South America, disrupting normal atmospheric circulation and monsoon rainfall patterns.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while La Niña represents its cooler phase. El Niño develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise more than 0.5°C above average.

Historically, very strong El Niño events occur roughly every 20 to 30 years. One of the most devastating episodes in recorded history occurred during 1877–78, when sea surface temperatures reportedly rose nearly 2.5°C above average. Monsoon rains failed across many regions, causing severe drought, widespread crop failures, famine, and social disruption. It is regarded as one of the worst climate disasters ever documented.

Super El Niño 2026–2027

The Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka has indicated that El Niño conditions are expected to become more prominent in the coming months. According to forecasts from NOAA and the WMO, exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean conditions could intensify during mid-2026 and continue into early 2027.

If these ocean temperatures rise significantly above normal levels, the world could experience a “Super El Niño” event, bringing severe weather extremes across many regions. Such conditions could trigger intense droughts and extreme heat in some countries, while parts of South America may experience unusually heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides.

According to international climate agencies, powerful El Niño events can trigger severe droughts across Australia, Indonesia, South Asia, and parts of Africa, often resulting in acute water shortages and crop failures. These events are also associated with extreme heat waves and widespread wildfires, particularly in already dry regions.

Agricultural production in many tropical countries can decline sharply due to reduced rainfall and excessive heat, threatening food security and rural livelihoods. At the same time, countries along the eastern Pacific coast, including Ecuador, Peru, and parts of Chile, may experience unusually heavy rainfall, destructive floods, and landslides.

Transition from La Niña to El Niño

Climate scientists describe the rapid shift between excessive rainfall and prolonged drought as “weather whiplash.” Such extreme fluctuations are becoming increasingly common as global temperatures rise.

Many people may wonder how warnings of drought can coexist with the widespread rainfall and flooding recently experienced in Sri Lanka. The answer lies in the transition currently taking place within the Pacific climate system. While Sri Lanka has benefited from abundant rainfall under recent climatic conditions, the expected shift from La Niña towards El Niño could substantially alter rainfall patterns during the coming seasons.

Potential impacts on Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka has experienced significant impacts during previous major El Niño events. Reduced rainfall, prolonged dry spells, declining reservoir storage, lower agricultural production, and reduced plantation crop yields have often been associated with strong El Niño conditions.

A powerful El Niño could weaken or disrupt monsoon rainfall, leading to prolonged droughts, extreme heat, and increased evapotranspiration. Reservoir inflows could decline, groundwater levels could fall, and irrigation water shortages could affect agricultural productivity. Urban and rural communities may also face drinking water scarcity, while hydropower generation could come under severe pressure. Reduced agricultural output could lead to higher food prices, creating additional economic burdens on households already facing rising living costs.

The urgent need for proactive action

Fortunately, Sri Lanka currently possesses an important advantage. Following recent widespread rains, most major, medium, and minor reservoirs are at or near capacity, while groundwater resources have been substantially replenished. These favourable conditions provide a valuable window of opportunity to strengthen preparedness before any prolonged dry period develops. Several actions deserve immediate attention.

First, reservoir management should focus on conserving water for essential needs, particularly drinking water supply and agriculture, rather than maximising hydropower generation. Second, irrigation water releases should be carefully regulated to maximise water availability during future dry periods. Climate-adaptive agricultural practices should be promoted. Farmers should be encouraged to adopt drought-tolerant crops, short-duration varieties, efficient irrigation methods. Groundwater extraction should be carefully monitored and managed to prevent overexploitation during periods of water scarcity.

Third, public awareness is equally important. Households, industries, institutions, and farmers should be encouraged to conserve water and minimise wastage wherever possible. Every litre saved today may become critical during a future drought.

Equally important is institutional coordination. The Department of Meteorology, Department of Irrigation, The Electricity Board, Mahaweli Authority, National Water Supply and Drainage Board, Department of Agriculture, and disaster management agencies must work closely together to ensure that seasonal climate forecasts are translated into practical planning and timely action.

Conclusion

Climate forecasts are not predictions of certainty. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eventual strength and duration of the developing El Niño. However, experience repeatedly demonstrates that preparedness is far less costly than responding to a crisis after it occurs.

Sri Lanka cannot prevent a Super El Niño. However, through scientific planning, prudent water management, climate-smart agriculture, and timely policy interventions, the country can substantially reduce its impacts.

Today, the reservoirs are full, and groundwater resources have been replenished. Yet the decisions made during the coming months will determine whether Sri Lanka faces a future drought with resilience or vulnerability. The warning signs are already emerging. The time to prepare is now, because preparedness is always less costly than crisis management.

(The author holds a B.Sc. in Agricultural Engineering from Tokyo University and an M.Sc. in Soil and Water Management from the University of Wageningen. He is a specialist in watershed management and soil conservation, and a former Director of the Natural Resources Management Centre, Department of Agriculture, Sri Lanka. He has also worked with FAO in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh)