Monday Apr 20, 2026
Monday Apr 20, 2026
Monday, 20 April 2026 04:23 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its global growth forecast for 2026, warning that a prolonged war involving Iran could significantly worsen the outlook if energy prices surge further.
“Once again, the global economy is being threatened with being thrown off course – this time by the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.
The IMF now expects global growth of 3.1% in 2026, a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January projection, assuming the conflict remains “relatively short-lived.”
“The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said, warning the conflict could still trigger a global “energy crisis on an unprecedented scale.”
However, the Fund outlined downside risks under scenarios where the conflict persists. In a severe case where oil and natural gas prices rise by 100–200% relative to January levels and remain elevated into 2027, global growth could slow to 2% this year.
That would amount to “a close call for a global recession,” defined as growth below 2%, a threshold breached only four times since 1980, the IMF noted.
Prior to the conflict, the global economy had been performing better than expected, with growth likely to be revised upward. The IMF said part of the downgrade was offset by lower US tariff rates compared to last year.
