Trump-influenced victory of Canada’s Liberal Party

The Canadian Federal Election, which was held early this week, resulted in the fourth successive victory of the Canadian Liberal Party. The Liberal Leader Mark Carney, who assumed both leadership and premiership just one month before the polls, defeated his rival and the Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre to reclaim premiership of the second largest country in the world and form a minority government. 

Carney, an accomplished economist, comes across as a pragmatic and intelligent person, who is well-equipped to lead his nation in a turbulent period. As the Governor of the Bank of Canada, he was credited for his prudent leadership during the 2008 global financial crisis. He was also the first non-British citizen to lead the Bank of England and his initiatives to support the British economy during the critical stages of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic were widely acknowledged. The Canadian voters’ attraction towards the economist-turned politician’s proven credentials in effectively managing crisis situations played an invaluable part in the electoral outcome.

At the start of this year, Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre were poised for a thumping victory. However, the resignation of the former Premier Justin Trudeau, the emergence of Carney as Trudeau’s successor, and last but certainly not least the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House three months ago completely transformed the dimensions of the biggest election – conducted under the first-past-the-post system – in the North American State. So much so that Pierre, who could have easily become the premier if not for the dramatic turnarounds in the political and economic circumstances, could not even win his own constituency of Carleton. Nevertheless, Conservatives under Poilievre increased their number of seats from 120 to 144 from the previous election and achieved the highest popular vote share since their party was established in 2003.

The electoral prospects of Conservatives became greatly diluted with the resignation of Justin Trudeau from the Liberal Party’s leadership. Carney’s predecessor was the main target of the Conservatives campaign, but with his departure from the limelight, Pierre and his team lost one of the key advantages they had. On the day Justin Trudeau announced that he would step down as leader of the Liberal Party and Prime Minister of Canada, his party was behind Conservatives by 26 percentage points in terms of voter intention. Trudeau had been highly unpopular among voters over issues such as the cost of living, housing affordability, as well as the rising crime rate.

To Carney’s good fortune, the actions and reckless remarks of the Commander-in-chief of his country’s powerful southern neighbour played no small measure towards his victory. Political commentators have concluded that the US president’s tariff threats and comments undermining the sovereignty of America’s northern neighbour played an influential role in determining the outcome of the Federal Election. Trump became a universally hated figure among Canadians over his insensitive utterances that the Commonwealth State should become a part of the US. Carney used the anger of voters towards Trump to his fullest benefit. During the campaign, he constantly mentioned that Trump was posing a threat to his motherland’s existence and he had the capacity to stand up to Trump. On the other hand, his main opponent Pierre brought Trump up much less frequently during the campaign.

Carney has pledged to make Canada less reliant on the US. Departing from precedent, his first prime ministerial trip abroad was to Europe, where he explored avenues with French and British officials about deepening security, military and economic ties. Nonetheless, Carney has not completely shut doors to the US. In his victory speech, Carney remarked that he was interested to talk with Trump regarding the economic and security relationship between the two countries.

Carney is virtually a novice to politics. The entire world would be keenly following how he leads his country amidst the unpredictable and eccentric leadership style of Donald Trump, as the latter’s trade policy decisions significantly impact the well-being of Canadians.