Lankans growing old before becoming richer

For a long time, development economists, donor agencies, and international organisations have been projecting that Sri Lanka would experience a rapid increase in its elderly population prior to becoming a developed economy. Such predictions have been affirmed by the results of the latest population census conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics – Census of Population and Housing 2024.

As per the latest census, population under 15 years of age have declined by 4.5%, while the number of people aged more than 65 years has increased by 4.7% compared to the previous census period – 2012. Furthermore, the working-age population – the people aged 15-64 – have declined marginally as a share of the total population. Unlike in the past, people tend to live longer in Sri Lanka due to the vast improvements in the healthcare facilities of the country. The life expectancy in Sri Lanka has significantly increased over the years, from 60.6 years in 1960 to 77.48 years in 2023 owing to improved healthcare, a decline in mortality rates, and other factors, leading to a larger elderly population.

The phenomenon of ageing would have accelerated over the last three to five years, with families postponing child births due to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the worst economic crisis experienced by the country in its contemporary history. The cost of raising children has become highly challenging for many married couples due to elevated levels of cost of living in the economy. It was only a few days ago, Sri Lanka was declared as the second most expensive country to live in South Asia.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a report published in 2019, which examined the challenges Sri Lanka has to experience due to its ageing population, pointed out the demographic shift to an ageing society in the island nation is far more rapid than in many other countries at a similar level of development, and occurring at the same speed as in countries with much higher per capita income. According to the Manila-based global development financial institution, the absolute number of working-age population will start to decline from 2030, which would adversely affect the economic growth prospects of the country. The increased educational standards of women compared to many decades ago, resulted in married couples delaying giving birth to children. There is also a tendency among young, educated, urbanised ladies in the country to refrain from attaining motherhood altogether as raising children is considered a hindrance to realise full potential in their chosen careers. The ideals of feminism discourage women from becoming mothers or even getting married by emphasising that women should not lose their independence by entering into a bond with individuals of the opposite gender.

Rising preference among the youth and middle-aged individuals to leave the shores en masse in search of greener pastures has contributed towards the declining working-age population in no small measure. Motivated by the desire to provide excellent education for their children, a number of families with sound educational backgrounds migrated to prosperous economies in the West, impeding the socio-economic progress of the State. The declining working-age population will reduce the country’s labour force, causing a drag on the new Government’s ambitious objectives with regard to economic growth, attracting foreign direct investments, increasing exports, etc. A declining labour force would make the cost of hiring workers expensive which would result in the country becoming a less attractive place for investment.

The increasing elderly population would pose numerous challenges to the society and would have numerous implications for businesses as well with the changing patterns of consumption driven by demographic change. Countries that faced similar problems adopted liberal policies towards inward migration to boost their supply of labour. However, the Sri Lankan society has always feared arrival of foreign nationalities. Pragmatic and forward-thinking policies are vital to overcome this serious demographic challenge.