Iran-Israel war: Unfavourable development for both SL and rest of world

The gruesome warfare between the two arch enemies in the Middle East – Iran and Israel – has been dominating international news headlines since last weekend and already, its ramifications have been felt worldwide. Since the eruption of the conflict, crude oil prices have increased by about 15% in the world market, causing worries to the global economy. The tensions in the Middle East have resulted in more than 30 international airlines, including major airlines like Emirates, Etihad Airways, Lufthansa, and Qatar Airways, suspending flights to the affected destinations in the war-torn region. 

Ever since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979, the two states have been sworn enemies. Over the past few decades, the Islamic Republic has been declaring its intention of wiping out Israel from the world map in no uncertain terms, while the Jewish nation has always regarded Iran as its biggest rival. Subsequent to the Islamic Revolution, successive regimes in the oil-rich country have adopted a highly antagonistic approach towards Israel. The arch enemy of Israel has generously extended support and assistance to anti-Israel militant groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shite militias in Iraq, Houthi rebels in Yemen as well as Hamas in Palestine to destabilise the pro-American state.

Similarly, Israel, in particular Prime Minister Benjamin Nethanyahu, for decades has been vociferously claiming in international platforms that Tehran is undertaking efforts to develop nuclear weapons. A decade ago, the Israeli Premier addressing a joint meeting of Congress at the US House of Representatives attempted to incite fears among the global community about Iran’s nuclear ambitions by claiming that the greatest danger facing the world is the marriage of militant Islam with nuclear weapons. However, even early this year, US Director of National Intelligence stated Iran was not building a nuclear weapon.

So far, due to Israel’s military operation – Rising Lion – a number of nuclear and weapons facilities along with missile-production and drone sites in Iran have been severely damaged. Further, dozens of top-ranking, Iranian military leaders have been assassinated along with numerous nuclear scientists. Energy facilities as well as oil depots too have been severely attacked. Iran too had struck Israel Defence Force Headquarters and one building of the Israeli military intelligence school. Also, Weizmann Institute – one of the world’s leading multidisciplinary research institutions in the natural and exact sciences – had sustained damages to several of its labs.

Sri Lanka too will feel the painful effects of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, which would be a drag to its economic recovery. Elevated crude oil prices in the world market would compel the Government to hike fuel prices in the local market as cost-reflective pricing of essential utilities is one of the key conditions of the IMF bailout package. Around 20,000 expatriate workers are based in Israel and in the event they return back to the country owing to security concerns, income through remittances could decline. Meanwhile, in 2024, Sri Lanka exported $ 62 million worth tea to Iran, representing a considerable increase from the 2023 figure – $ 36 million.

Given the severity of the conflict, it is incumbent upon the global powers to bring warring factions into a ceasefire – which would be in the best interest of both countries. Israel needs to recognise that its reputation has suffered quite badly due to its military offensive in Gaza and a prolonged war against Iran would not do any good for its standing. On the other hand, Iran too needs to dilute its hostility towards Israel for its own sake. Despite China’s discriminatory treatment of Uyghur Muslims, Iran maintains a strong relationship with the Asian giant. Hence, there’s no reason why the Islamic Republic cannot mend ties with its arch enemy.