Indian state elections and impact on SL

The just-concluded Indian state elections have thrown up many shocks and surprises, upsetting the status quo of decades in the states of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a landslide in West Bengal, a feat once thought unattainable, but clever strategising won the day for the party.

In the southern Indian state of Kerala, the United Democratic Front, led by the Congress party – the main national opposition – swept away decades of rule by leftist parties in the state with a solid victory.

But the biggest shock has been in Tamil Nadu, where the two mainstream parties, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) of outgoing Chief Minister of the State M. K. Stalin and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), which have dominated politics in the state for decades, were bowled out by a party led by a political novice.

The Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), led by movie star-turned-politician C. Joseph Vijay, won the majority of the seats in the state assembly, thus putting an end to the dominance of parties like the DMK, once led by M. Karunanidhi, and the AIADMK, once led by another movie star-turned-politician M. G. Ramachandran (MGR), names all too familiar to Sri Lankans over the years.

Some international media outlets compared Vijay’s victory to that of Anura Kumara Dissanayake in 2024 and the recent election of Balendra Shah, a rap singer-turned-politician who is now Prime Minister of Nepal, with voters who were fed up with business as usual deciding to bet on outsiders rather than on the known devils.

Many Sri Lankan politicians, particularly from the Tamil parties, have rushed to congratulate Vijay on his victory. They hope that he will support the cause of Sri Lankan Tamils as he pledged during the election campaign.

Vijay voiced support for the Tamils of Sri Lanka during the election campaign, as well as protection for Indian fishermen, while also calling for India to take back the Katchatheevu Island from Sri Lanka, saying it is essential for protecting local fishermen’s rights.

So far there has been no official comment from the Sri Lankan Government on the state election results in India, but the comments regarding Katchatheevu during the election campaign have been dismissed in Colombo as rhetoric common during election periods.

Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa congratulated Prime Minister Modi and the BJP on the West Bengal election victory but has made no comment on the Tamil Nadu election results, while SLPP MP Namal Rajapaksa sent out wishes to Vijay on his “resounding victory.”

Sri Lanka will be watching developments in Tamil Nadu keenly. With Indo-Lanka relations currently on a sound footing, it is likely neither country will want to rock the boat.

The Modi Government has taken a somewhat lackadaisical attitude when it comes to issues relating to the cause of Tamils in Sri Lanka, unlike previous Governments, which were more forceful in their calls for the full implementation of the Thirteenth Amendment. During the recent visit to Sri Lanka by Indian Vice President C. P. Radhakrishnan, the issue was not raised with the Government at all.

There is no doubt that the Sri Lankan Government will want to engage positively with the new Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and hope to build good relations. How the new Tamil Nadu Chief Minister and his Government respond to Sri Lanka will go a long way in shaping future relations between Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.