Government’s arrogance comes under scrutiny

The recently concluded Local Government (LG) election produced a surprising verdict with the ruling NPP alliance suffering an unexpected dip in its popularity. The NPP’s vote share declined to almost 43% from the impressive 62% of votes they obtained at the last November Parliamentary election. Such a substantial decline in the NPP’s vote base within just five months after obtaining a two-third majority in the legislature would have surprised everybody.

Nevertheless, it would be imprudent to surmise that the NPP has lost its way completely. As we pointed out in one of the previous columns, compared to the national-level elections, the voter turnout is generally low for polls held to elect representatives for local councils and provincial councils. There is a tendency among independent-minded, moderate voters to ignore non-national polls. The enthusiasm of the social media-focused youth towards minor polls too is pretty low, which results in a lower voter turnout. The previous LG election recorded an 80% voter turnout – which was a historical high. At the 2011 Local Council Election, the turnout was about 65%. The election during last week witnessed a turnout of 62%, and it would have certainly had a bearing on the outcome.

It could be deduced that the NPP would have been the biggest casualty of the low voter turnout, as a result of the low participation of the youth – among which the ruling coalition has a high following. A number of individuals who work in private companies in Colombo and whose hometowns are located in remote areas did not travel to their villages for voting as they did not want to sacrifice their time and money for an election which had no national impact. Furthermore, in local council elections, people tend to ignore their national-level political preferences and vote for their friends, relatives, and neighbours. Due to such reasons, it is premature to opine that the NPP has suffered an enormous decline in its popularity at the national level; however, there has certainly been a dip in its public acceptance.

On the contrary, the three main political parties in the Opposition – the SJB, SLPP, and the UNP – managed to increase their vote shares from their dismal performance at the last General election. Perhaps, the biggest surprise was the considerable rise in the vote share of the Namal Rajapaksa-led SLPP. The percentage of votes obtained by the beleaguered political alliance – 9.17 – was an astonishment to many. Yet, the SLPP’s better-than-expected performance should not be viewed as a rise in the popularity of Namal Rajapaksa, the heir apparent of the Rajapaksa family. In a country where jealousy and resentment run deep, Namal’s image as a beneficiary of privilege and patronage does not help his cause. Moreover, he still comes across as too immature and inexperienced to become a national political leader. The SLPP has a good connection and rapport with the grassroots, particularly in rural areas, and this election proved that base has not disappeared completely.

Why did the NPP experience such an unexpected outcome? Arrogance and trying to deceive the general public by falsehood are among the prime reasons. The Ashoka Ranwala saga soon after the Parliamentary election challenged the holier-than-thou image the leftist political alliance tried to portray. The Government became a laughing stock among the public when the person who was nominated for the post of speaker was accused of falsifying his academic credentials. The continuation of the IMF program despite the earlier criticism by the NPP to would have alienated the traditional voters who were associated with the ruling political dispensation from the days of the JVP.

Already, cracks are beginning to appear within the coalition, and speculation is rife that the President would go for a Cabinet reshuffle soon. The result of the local council election has given the opportunity for the Government to reassess its strategies and get prepared for the bigger tests ahead of them.