Effects of Brexit and Britain’s decade-long political instability

The Number 10, Downing Street – the official residence of the UK Prime Minister – has not brought much luck to its chief occupant over the last decade as none of its main residents has been able stay in office for too long. Since 2016 – the year in which Britons decided to leave the European Union (EU) via a referendum (Brexit) – the UK has had six Prime Ministers – 

David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak, and Keir Starmer and soon they will have the seventh one too. Drawing humour and sarcasm, observers have pointed out that Larry, a tabby cat who was adopted by Cameron and his wife in 2011 to hunt rats in the Number 10, has been the only constant in Downing Street.

Many British political commentators opine the political divisions created by the Brexit vote a decade ago continue to impact the nation’s political climate. London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) Department of Government Professor of Political Science Sarah Hobolt, in an opinion editorial had claimed the Brexit vote contributed to a more fundamental shift in British politics that has made governing more difficult and leadership less secure. According to Hobolt, voters are more volatile and less loyal to traditional parties in the aftermath of Brexit. Over recent decades, British voters have become increasingly detached from traditional party loyalties and more willing to switch between parties. She had further pointed out that with erosion of party loyalties, voters have grown more open to new political identities and more willing to support challenger parties, such as Reform UK and the Greens. 

In the years since Brexit, Britain’s political landscape has fractured, with declining support for the two long-dominant parties, Conservatives and Labour. A decade after the game-changing referendum, Britain looks like a nation experiencing a gradual economic drag and deep political division, and businesses face ongoing trade friction with Europe while its GDP remains noticeably lower than it would have been inside the EU. At the same, there is a growing feeling in the European state that Brexit has failed. According to two polls from Ipsos, 52% of people in the UK would like to re-join the EU while 33% are against it.

The announcement of resignation by Keir Starmer shows how volatile British politics is. Less than two years ago, he led his Labour party to its biggest majority in Parliament this century. Two months ago, the populist right-wing Reform UK party made sweeping gains in England’s local council elections at the expense of Labour. The outgoing premier’s decision to appoint Jeffrey Epstein-linked politician Peter Mandelson to the role of UK ambassador in Washington did him no good while his attempt to make wealthier pensioners pay more to heat their homes as well as a plan to cut some benefits to disabled people caused his popularity rating to plummet.

Meanwhile, Greater Manchester former Mayor Andrew Burnham– is tipped to replace Starmer both as Labour Party Leader and Premier. Burnham’s decisive victory during last month at the by-election for Makerfield constituency has solidified his standing among the rank and file of Labour, as the electoral success was achieved amidst Labour’s low approval rating.  Political observers believe the newly elected MP has got the best credentials to challenge the Reform UK Party – which is ahead of both Labour and Conservatives in opinion polls.  Burnham’s aides believe that his working-class background and plain-speaking style would help them win back traditional Labour towns that have floated towards Reform UK. 

Reform UK’s policies strongly mirror Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, sharing a core focus on strict immigration control, economic protectionism apart from antipathy towards diversity and inclusion policies. Burnham’s supporters would be hoping that his charisma and appeal to the working class would become useful to contain the threat of Reform UK.