Cyclone Ditwah – testing Sri Lanka’s resilience once more

Tsunami, COVID, floods, landslides, economic shocks, droughts, suicide terror attacks, and power cuts, – these are the terms we Sri Lankans have regularly heard over the last 2 decades. The last 5 to 6 years in particular have been extremely turbulent for Sri Lankans, as the island moved from one crisis to another almost on a routine basis. Regrettably, some of those crises were self-inflicted. Just when it appeared everything was going smoothly, the familiar misfortune once again struck the land last week. A popular adage in folklore states this nation is eternally hampered by Kuweni’s curse. Going by the happenings one wonders whether it is more than a myth.

The cyclone Sri Lankans experienced last week is perhaps the worst natural disaster in contemporary history - only lagging behind the shattering Boxing Day Tsunami in terms of severity and scale of the devastation.  According to the preliminary calculations, the total economic cost to Sri Lanka due to the unfortunate event has been estimated at Rs. 210 billion to Rs. 320 billion, equivalent to 1% of the GDP. Because the cyclone struck across many districts, losses are broad-based with ramifications being felt across all major sectors of the economy – plantations, manufacturing, service and logistics as well as tourism. On the surface, the latest debacle appears to be more damaging and painful than the similar kind of floods and landslides the nation had to endure in 2016.

To compound the matters worse, the enormous economic loss coincides with the IMF-mandated fiscal consolidation-oriented policy reforms that constrain the Government’s ability to disburse public funds liberally to resolve the exigencies created by a disaster of this overwhelming magnitude. The Washington-based multilateral lender must revisit the conditions imposed on the beleaguered borrower in view of the significant impact the floods and landslides have caused to the livelihoods of a large number of Sri Lankans.

Cyclone Ditwah has emerged as the biggest challenge that will test the competency of the NPP Government. Already, the Dissanayake Administration is facing widespread criticism for the lethargic and rather insensitive response both during the course of the disaster as well as in its immediate aftermath. It was reported that top officials of the Department of Meteorology had publicly warned about the danger the country was going to face as early as 12 November. However, no attention was paid by the ruling political coalition whose political leaders viscerally criticised their predecessors for not having proper systems in place to prepare for eventualities caused by nature. What is more puzzling is that it took a number of days to declare a state of public emergency despite the considerable level of humanitarian and physical distress caused by the traumatic events.

In the meantime, the politicians attached to the ruling party have begun to criticise their opponents for trying to achieve political gains out of the discomfort and suffering experienced by the general public. No political party in the history of this country attempted to gain political mileage out of natural disasters and economic crises like the JVP/NPP during their days in the Opposition. Some of the present Cabinet ministers even asked migrant workers to refrain from sending remittances to their loved ones back at home in order to bring down the Government. 

Nevertheless, the time has now come for policymakers to develop holistic and forward-looking mechanisms and policies that enable meticulous preparation for natural disasters apart from mitigating the repercussions of such events. Assistance from a country like Japan – a longstanding friend of Sri Lanka – can be sought to develop sound disaster management and response mechanisms. With nature becoming increasingly unpredictable, we as a nation must perceive national disaster management as a top most public policy priority.