2024 the election year

It’s certain now that 2024 will be a year of election in Sri Lanka with both the presidential and parliamentary polls slated for next year. Coincidentally there are several other countries including India where parliamentary elections will be held next year while the US presidential election is scheduled for November 2024.

In Sri Lanka the coming elections could prove to be more divisive than ever before with no clear winner in either of the two main elections. With President Ranil Wickremesinghe almost certain to contest for post of President along with SJB leader Sajith Premadasa and NPP/JVP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Sri Lanka could face a situation where none of the candidates cross the 50% mark and push the vote to second round. Other wannabe candidates such as businessmen Dhammika Perera and Dilith Jayaweera would further split in votes thus leaving the country with no clear winner in the first round.

In a parliamentary election too, what the country is looking at present is a hung parliament with no party able to cross the magical 113 seats required for a simple majority in the House. Ahead of the election, many new alliances are likely with each party keen to consolidate their position and many serving MPs keen to return to parliament.

Many poll pundits are predicting that the traditional voting patterns in the country will go awry with the younger segment of the population seeking to infuse fresh blood into the political system and hence will vote for newer parties and candidates. The NPP/JVP is being cited as the choice of a majority of the disgruntled voters who are fed up with business as usual by the two main political groups in the country. The JVP, in an effort to give itself an overhaul founded the National People’s Power (NPP) party and is flaunting itself as the party of intellectuals. This attempt at makeover didn’t work well for the JVP in the 2019 or 2020 elections but riding on the waves of the Aragalaya there is more optimism from the camp that they would emerge strongly in the next election.

The main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) led by MP Sajith Premadasa will have its own set of challenges to face come elections. Even if all of the current SJB MPs remain within the Party fold to face the next general election, they will have to compete for anti-SLPP, anti-Government votes with the NPP/JVP. The SJB other than its regular anti-Rajapaksa rants have failed to effectively counter the Government’s ongoing policies/programs and come up with alternatives. The SJB will have to depend on infusion of funds from the IMF and continue with unpopular policies if they come to power. Convincing the voter that they will do things differently will not be easy.

The President on his part too has a tough task ahead of him if he chooses to contest the next presidential election. He is in a situation where he needs the SLPP to back him but at the same time he will want to distance himself from the Rajapaksa orbit that has cast a long shadow over his presidency. While the President is keen to resurrect the UNP, it is unlikely the grand old party of Sri Lanka will ever return to its days of glory while the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) under former President Maithripala Sirisena seems to be on its way out for good.

The current political scenario could change dramatically when an election is announced with likely crossovers and new alliances. Eventually it will depend on the mood of the voters on election day and who they think would be best suited to run the country.