Treasury forecasts 3.1% GDP growth in 2025, lower than CBSL, IMF projections

Friday, 12 September 2025 00:34 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

CoPF Chairman MP Dr. Harsha de Silva addressing the Finance Ministry review

Finance Ministry gives 2025 growth projection at CoPF 1H fiscal performance review
CoPF Chair MP Dr. Harsha de Silva asks Treasury officials for fiscal impact on 2025 economic growth target
Points to discrepancy between Central Bank and Finance Ministry foreign reserve forecasts
Treasury growth projection lower than CBSL’s 4.5% and IMF’s 3.5% estimates

Treasury officials have told the Parliamentary Committee on Public Finance (CoPF) that based on the strong fiscal performance in the first half of the year, the economy was expected to expand by 3.1% in 2025, the Parliament Secretariat said.

At a recent review of the income, expenditure, and debt conditions during the period, CoPF Chairman MP Dr. Harsha de Silva asked the officials if the economic growth target could be met based on the fiscal data they presented. “Finance Ministry officials said that it can be assumed that economic growth will be around 3.1% this year,” a statement from the Parliament Secretariat said.

In August, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka forecast growth at 4.5% in 2025, higher than the IMF’s 3.5% projection.

The Government reported a strong fiscal performance for the first half of 2025 compared to the total revenue for the first six months of 2024, exceeding the mid-year target, officials from the Ministry of Finance informed the Committee.

Presenting data, Finance Ministry officials pointed out that the total revenue collected from the half-yearly estimated income of Rs. 2,241 billion from January to June 2025 was Rs. 2,318 billion, exceeding the estimate by 3%.

Meanwhile, the total expenditure was Rs. 3,467 billion, an increase of Rs. 367 billion compared to the expenditure in the first six months of 2024. The main reason for this increase has been debt servicing, which was Rs. 1,984 billion. Recurring expenditure on essential public services, including public sector salaries, pensions, social security programs such as ‘Aswesuma’ and ‘Samurdhi’, has also increased, Finance Ministry officials said.

Dr. de Silva instructed the officials to take steps to inform the Committee about the tax policy on cigarettes. The Committee also discussed the discrepancy between the forecasts made by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Ministry of Finance regarding the country’s foreign reserves at the end of the year, the Parliament Secretariat statement said.

Officials from the Inland Revenue Department (IRD) joining the review reported an increase in collection to 1,040,388 million out of the estimated income of Rs. 1,022,691 million in the first half of 2025. They said that TIN (Tax Identification Number) numbers have been issued for about 1.3 million Sri Lankans over the age of 18.