Wednesday Dec 17, 2025
Wednesday Dec 17, 2025
Wednesday, 17 December 2025 00:23 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
A group of tourists waiting at Fort Railway Station
The anticipated tourism rebound is edging into its final, decisive stretch of 2025 with arrivals now firmly above 2.2 million as of first half of the month, but the arithmetic of the final weeks suggests the industry will need an exceptional December to meaningfully exceed its lower-end ambitions.
According to the latest figures from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA), the country welcomed 93,031 visitors in the first two weeks of December, a 4.2% increase from the 89,317 recorded over the same period last year.
This early-month momentum lifted the arrivals during the first two weeks to 2,196,624, leaving Sri Lanka just over 218,000 short of the authority’s revised “Lower Scenario” projection of 2.415 million visitors for the full year.
The December trajectory so far has been uneven, but upward. Arrivals accelerated from 43,976 in the first week to 49,055 in the second, pushing the daily average for the first half of the month to 6,645.
However, the month’s official target of 344,309 arrivals implies a far steeper climb ahead, with 251,278 visitors still required in the remaining 17 days of December. This means the country would need to attract close to 14,800 tourists a day, more than double the pace achieved so far, to hit that mark.
By comparison, December 2018, widely regarded as the industry’s benchmark year, welcomed 253,169 arrivals for the entire month, making the 2025 target around 36% more ambitious than the pre-crisis peak. This gap underscores the tension between momentum and actual numbers.
If December simply sustains its current average, total arrivals for the year would land closer to 2.31 million, comfortably above pre-pandemic levels, but below even the most cautious of the authority’s scenarios. Hitting the “Conservative Scenario” of 2.676 million, let alone the “Optimistic Scenario” of 3 million, would require an unprecedented late-month surge that recent trends do not yet support.
The composition of arrivals continues to reflect a rebalancing of source markets. India dominated the first 14 days of December with 21,156 visitors, accounting for 23% of arrivals, followed by Russia at 11% (10,023), the UK at 8% (7,313), Germany at 7% (6,860) and China at 6% (5,402). The breadth of this mix, extending to Australia, Poland, the US, France and Israel, has helped smooth volatility even as long-haul demand recovers unevenly.
On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, India remains the cornerstone of the surge in arrivals, sending 495,952 travellers, nearly a quarter of total arrivals; followed by Russia with 168,616 travellers, Germany with 138,119 tourists and China with 127,073 visitors.
Financially, during the first 11 months of 2025, tourism generated over $ 2.9 billion, a modest 3.7% increase year-on-year (YoY). Although this suggests improving yields and spending, revenues remain 34.2% below the $ 3.9 billion earned during the same period in 2018, the year Sri Lanka posted its record annual tourism income of $ 4.38 billion.
In effect, arrivals have rebounded faster than receipts, pointing to ongoing pressure on pricing, length of stay or per-capita spending. Taken together, the data paint a picture of an industry that has regained its footing but is still climbing back to its former altitude.
December’s performance will determine whether Sri Lanka closes 2025 merely stronger than last year or decisively closer to its long-term potential. The odds of hitting the most ambitious targets may be narrowing, but surpassing pre-crisis volumes now looks less a question of if than of when.
