Tourist arrivals cross 100,000 mark in first 19-days of September

Sri Lanka’s tourism industry has registered a steady momentum in September, welcoming over 100,000 visitors in the first 19 days of the month and propelling the year-to-date (YTD) arrivals to 1.67 million. “The growth has been driven primarily by the steady flow of Indian tourists, particularly for meetings, incentives, conferences, and exhibitions (MICE), with India continuing to dominate as the leading source market,” a top official told the Daily FT.

The provisional figures released by the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) up to 17 September show 90,393 arrivals, reflecting a 28% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The first week of September drew 37,495 tourists, followed closely by 37,864 in the second week, while the period between 15 and 17 September brought in 15,034 visitors. 

With an overall projection of 185,043 arrivals for the month, the sector has entered the final quarter of the year on a positive note, though challenges remain. 

“Although the road to 3 million arrivals in 2025 may be out of reach, the sector’s steady recovery underscores its renewed role as a key pillar of economic resilience and growth,” he added.

India accounted for 28.4% of arrivals during the first 17 days of September, with 25,668 tourists. The United Kingdom followed with 6,669, while Germany contributed 5,796, China 5,246, and Australia 4,677, rounding out the top five markets. These figures highlight the continued reliance on traditional source markets, though China’s return signals gradual diversification in inflows.

Despite the encouraging growth trajectory, industry experts and Government officials have expressed doubts over achieving the ambitious targets of 3 million arrivals and $ 5 billion revenue by the year end. Tourism Deputy Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe acknowledged the country will not reach its ambitious target of 3 million arrivals, but will not downsize its target. “Realistically, we will not reach the 3 million target this year, but we will not downgrade our target. With just three months left, I feel we will end up just over 2.5 million,” he told the Daily FT (https://www.ft.lk/top-story/3-m-arrivals-target-out-of-reach/26-781478).

Echoing similar sentiments, CT Smith Securities this week in a sector report projected that while 2025 will be one of the industry’s strongest years since the crisis-ridden period of 2019-2022, Sri Lanka is likely to end the year with around 2.4 million arrivals and $ 3.4 billion in earnings; well below the official targets of 3 million visitors and $ 5 billion in revenue.

The research firm forecast arrivals to climb to 3 million and tourism receipts to $ 4.3 billion by next year. “We remain optimistic about the growth of the tourism sector heading into 2025, which is likely to exceed 2018 levels, with increased interest from key source markets in the near term,” the report noted. (https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Sri-Lanka-tourism-may-fall-short-of-2025-arrival-and-earning-targets%C2%A0/44-781767) However, it cautioned that the Government’s goals for 2025 will remain out of reach, especially with key marketing initiatives delayed.

Industry stakeholders are also grappling with the postponement of Sri Lanka’s long-awaited global tourism promotion campaign and the launch of its new nation brand, both rescheduled for next year (https:/www.ft.lk/front-page/Sri-Lanka-stumped-over-tourism-identity/44-781625). The setback removes a major driver that the industry was counting on to accelerate arrivals during the critical fourth quarter, making an already ambitious target even harder to achieve.

Tourism arrivals so far this year have averaged 6,389 per day, consistent with peaks last seen in 2018 and 2019. September’s daily arrivals stood slightly lower at 5,383, reflecting a seasonal slowdown, but still marking a 32% YoY increase despite a 16% month-on-month (MoM) dip. Earnings, too, have displayed resilience, with nearly $ 259 million generated in August alone. This figure, however, represented declines of 19% MoM and 8% YoY. Still, cumulative earnings of $ 2.3 billion in the first eight months of 2025 already account for about 72% of the full-year total in 2024.

Analysts remain confident that Sri Lanka will surpass last year’s $ 3.17 billion in revenue, which had been the highest since 2018 and the fifth-best year on record for the industry. 

Tourism continues to be one of the country’s largest sources of foreign inflows, contributing significantly to the economy. In the second quarter of 2025, the sector ranked as the eighth-largest contributor to GDP growth, adding 0.17 percentage points (PP). 

“Although the road to 3 million arrivals in 2025 may be out of reach, the sector’s steady recovery and revenue trajectory underscore its renewed role as a key pillar of economic resilience and growth,” they added.