Standard Chartered CEO hails ‘doable’ Budget 2026

• Bingumal Thewarathanthri says outlook ‘cautiously optimistic’ amid fiscal constraints and reform momentum

Standard Chartered Bank Sri Lanka CEO Bingumal Thewarathanthri yesterday described the 2026 Budget as “a credible and a doable plan” that balances fiscal discipline with growth ambition. 

Although Sri Lanka’s fiscal space remains severely constrained, he said consistent reforms and adherence to the IMF program can sustain the country’s gradual recovery and rebuild international confidence.

Speaking at the Daily FT–Colombo University Alumni Association post-Budget forum panel discussion, Thewarathanthri said the 2026 Budget reflects “a realistic path forward” for Sri Lanka, amidst continuing efforts to stabilise public finances.

“This is a doable Budget. There’s no immediate risk to the IMF program and maintaining that consistency is critical for regaining market access,” he pointed out.

Thewarathanthri commended the 2026 Budget for its projected 30% year-on-year (YoY) revenue growth, describing it as both “ambitious, yet realistic.”

He said the revenue-to-GDP ratio target of 15–15.2% for 2026 was “conservative and achievable”, especially with the reintroduction of vehicle imports expected to boost Customs revenue significantly.

Highlighting the magnitude of fiscal challenge, Thewarathanthri pointed out that the country’s interest-to-revenue ratio at around 57%, which is among the five highest in the world. “The Government’s revenue is around $ 4.5 billion, recurring expenditure including Aswesuma welfare payments and pensions amounts to $ 2.6 billion and annual interest payments also total $ 2.6 billion. That means more than half of all Government revenue is spent on interest payments alone,” he said, underscoring the limited fiscal room available for new spending or stimulus.

Despite the constraints, Thewarathanthri noted that Sri Lanka has achieved a modest credit ratings upgrade and is maintaining stability under the IMF program, although market access remains closed.

On growth, he said President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s 7% GDP target likely refers to nominal growth, while a real growth range of 2–5% is a more realistic outcome for 2026.

He attributed this to the fact that key sectors such as tourism and construction have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, but expressed confidence that sustained recovery across these industries could push growth closer to 5% next year.

Thewarathanthri also projected that inflation would average around 3–4% in 2026, aligning with the Central Bank’s 5% target. “Maintaining these targets is vital for macroeconomic stability and investor confidence.

Meeting both the revenue and inflation targets will determine how much stability the economy can sustain. These are the anchor points for 2026,” he said.

Beyond fiscal and monetary management, Thewarathanthri said the Budget’s commitment to structural reforms was a key positive.

He highlighted initiatives such as the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Act, trade facilitation and the National Single Window System, the digital NIC initiative, the Digital Economy Blueprint (EDP) and commitments to upgrade port and logistics infrastructure.

“These reforms may not be immediate market drivers, but they are the building blocks of long-term growth. They will modernise how Sri Lanka does business and attract investors who value transparency and efficiency,” he explained. 

Thewarathanthri described the overall economic outlook as “cautiously optimistic.”

“The Government appears to be on course and committed to the IMF program. That consistency of maintaining reforms, improving revenue and strengthening institutions is critical for Sri Lanka’s recovery and long-term credibility,” he said.

He stressed that regaining international market access will take time, but sustained progress on reforms and fiscal consolidation would gradually help restore investor confidence and lower borrowing costs.