Tuesday Mar 10, 2026
Tuesday Mar 10, 2026
Tuesday, 10 March 2026 00:29 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
By Charumini de Silva
Sri Lanka’s tourism sector has crossed the 600,000 visitor mark for 2026, maintaining overall growth momentum despite a sudden slowdown in early March caused by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and widespread disruptions to global aviation routes.
During the first eight days of March, Sri Lanka welcomed 47,646 visitors, reflecting a 30.5% decline compared to the same period in 2025 as flight cancellations, restricted airspace, and higher travel costs began affecting inbound tourism.
However, cumulative arrivals for the year have still managed to maintain a 9% year-on-year (YoY) increase, supported by strong performance in the first two months of the year.
The conflict began on 28 February and quickly disrupted key aviation corridors linking Europe and Asia through major Middle Eastern transit hubs. Daily arrivals to Sri Lanka between 1 March and 8 March stood at 5,426, 6,376, 5,651, 5,663, 6,285, 5,596, 6,279, and 6,370, bringing the daily average down to 5,956 tourists, compared with 7,773 during the same period last year.
Despite the aviation disruptions, Sri Lanka continued to receive a steady flow of visitors, particularly from long-haul Western markets including the UK, Germany, France, the US, and Canada, making it to the top 10 destinations in early March.
India continued to dominate as the island’s largest source market, accounting for 11,345 visitors in the first eight days of March, or 24% of total arrivals during the period. It was followed by Russia with 4,388 visitors, the UK with 4,136, China with 4,032, and Germany with 3,634.
Year-to-date (YTD) figures show India crossing 100,000 arrivals, reaching 111,085 visitors, while the UK registered 64,464 arrivals and Russia 54,621.
The decline in early-March arrivals reflects the importance of Middle Eastern aviation hubs for Sri Lanka’s tourism connectivity. Industry data indicate that around 34% of all tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka pass through transit points in the Middle East.
Tourism Deputy Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe warned that even a one-week closure of the Middle Eastern airspace could cost Sri Lanka around $ 10-15 million in tourism revenue.
Already, airlines including the national carrier—SriLankan Airlines—are being forced to avoid conflict zones and operate on longer, more expensive routes, significantly increasing fuel consumption and operational costs.
As a result, ticket prices have soared across many international routes. According to Skyscanner, the Colombo to Frankfurt return ticket now costs around $ 4,389 (over Rs. 1.37 million), while it was around $ 1,157 (Rs. 350,000).
Industry analysts estimate transatlantic fares could increase by 6% to 10%, while long-haul Asia-Pacific routes may rise by 8% to 15% due to higher fuel burn and longer flight paths.
Several airlines have already suspended flights to certain destinations or reduced operations, creating logistical challenges for travellers and tourism-dependent destinations like Sri Lanka. Destinations in the Middle East are expected to face the most immediate tourism disruption, but countries dependent on long-haul markets could also experience softer demand if travel costs remain elevated.
They also opined that the economic impact could extend beyond aviation. Higher airfares and broader inflation pressures may reduce discretionary travel spending globally, potentially slowing tourism growth later in 2026.
Despite the uncertainties, global tourism sentiment remains resilient. Industry observers at ITB Berlin 2026, one of the world’s largest travel trade fairs, noted that international travel demand continues to remain strong, although the sector may face volatility if geopolitical tensions persist and oil prices remain high.
Analysts also said that Sri Lanka may have an opportunity to reposition itself amid the shifting travel landscape, especially as Sri Lanka Tourism plans to launch a Rs. 2 billion interim PR and digital campaign next month for eight months (https://www.ft.lk/front-page/Sri-Lanka-targets-4-b-tourism-revenue-in-2026-with-interim-global-PR-push-in-April/44-788572).
With authorities encouraging high-end investments with room rates in the $ 300–500 range, alongside tighter product development, regulation, standardisation, and travellers cancelling luxury trips to Middle Eastern destinations due to security concerns, tourism stakeholders believe Sri Lanka could market itself as a safe, vibrant, and accessible alternative destination, potentially capturing a portion of displaced regional tourism traffic.
They said that leveraging transit partnerships with major Southeast Asian hubs such as Singapore, Bangkok, and Kuala Lumpur could also provide critical alternative pathways for long-haul travellers, particularly from Europe.
“As the global aviation sector adjusts to the evolving geopolitical environment, Sri Lanka’s ability to adapt its connectivity and marketing strategies will likely determine whether the island can sustain its strong tourism recovery through the rest of 2026,” they stressed.
In addition, Sri Lanka Tourism is also assisting tourists stranded on the island due to the aviation disruptions, while airlines are working to rebook passengers through alternative routes.
