Monday Dec 29, 2025
Monday Dec 29, 2025
Monday, 29 December 2025 05:51 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
Tourists arrive in Sri Lanka at the BIA
Sri Lanka crossed the 2.3 million tourist arrivals milestone on 26 December, marking its strongest post-crisis performance and edging towards passing the 2018 record of 2.33 million visitors.
As per Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) data up to 25 December, cumulative arrivals stood at 2,298,987, with the 2.3 million mark crossed the following day.
This places 2025 marginally ahead of the previous all-time high of 2.33 million visitors recorded in 2018, and around 12% higher than the 2.05 million arrivals recorded in 2024, underlining the sector’s recovery momentum.
During the first 25 days of December, Sri Lanka welcomed 195,394 tourists for the month, compared with 191,465 during the same period in December 2024, a growth of just over 2% year-on-year (YoY).
Against a full-month target of 344,309 arrivals, this leaves a gap of nearly 149,000 visitors to be achieved in the final six days of the year. That would require daily arrivals of close to 25,000, from 7,816 at present, making the monthly target mathematically unrealistic.
Based on historical year-end patterns and current run rates, December is now expected to close in the range of 260,000-270,000 arrivals, broadly in line with last year rather than the aggressive target set for 2025.
This would take total arrivals for the year to around 2.35-2.4 million, effectively meeting the revised lower-end objective, but falling short of the more ambitious scenarios.
The revised SLTDA forecast paths now provide a more realistic benchmark. With arrivals expected to end the year around 2.35-2.4 million, the outcome aligns closely with the ‘Lower Scenario’ of 2.415 million arrivals.
It also broadly matches the projection by CT Smith Securities, which estimates 2.4 million tourists and tourism earnings of about $ 3.4 billion for 2025.
In contrast, the ‘Conservative Scenario’ of 2.676 million would have required December arrivals to surge by more than 40% YoY, while the ‘Optimistic Scenario’ of 3 million is clearly out of reach given the current run rate.
Monthly trends show that the recovery has been underpinned by strong growth earlier in the year. January arrivals rose by over 21% YoY, while April, May, and June posted increases ranging from 17% to nearly 22%.
September stood out with growth of over 30%, reflecting strong shoulder-season demand. However, growth moderated during the peak winter months of November and December, pointing to constraints in airlift, weather conditions, and price competitiveness during the high season.
During the first 25 days of December, India topped the list with 45,020 tourists, accounting for 23% of arrivals, followed by Russia at 10% (20,150), the UK at 8% (15,768), Germany 7% (12,740), and Australia 6% (10,934). Other notable contributors included travellers from China, the US, France, Poland, and Italy.
Year-to-date (YTD), India remains Sri Lanka’s largest tourism market in 2025, contributing nearly 520,000 visitors by 25 December, or more than one-fifth of total arrivals. The UK followed with 207,500 tourists, while the Russian Federation accounted for 178,743 arrivals. Germany with 143,999 travellers and China with 130,452 visitors rounded out the top five source markets.
Together, these five countries contributed well over half of total tourist arrivals during the year, underscoring Sri Lanka’s reliance on a concentrated set of core markets.
A recent sector analysis by CT Smith Securities reinforced the year-end outlook, projecting around 2.4 million arrivals and tourism earnings of $ 3.4 billion for 2025, broadly in line with the revised lower-end expectations.
The company is more optimistic about 2026, forecasting arrivals to rise to 3 million and revenue to reach $ 4.3 billion, suggesting scope for both volume growth and improved yields if capacity constraints are eased.
Industry analysts said meeting higher targets in future years will depend less on aspirational numbers and more on boosting revenue generation whilst expanding airline connectivity, implementing the long awaited free-visa proposal for over 40 countries, and a nation branding campaign to sustainably support growth beyond the 2.4 million mark.
