Rupee to stabilise at Rs. 330-335/USD, fourth straight current account surplus expected in 2026

Thursday, 13 August 2026 00:24 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Softlogic Stockbrokers Equity Research projects $ 250-300 m current account surplus, equivalent to 0.3% of GDP
Remittances forecast to hit record $ 9 b; tourism earnings seen down 10% to $ 2.9 b

Sri Lanka is expected to record a fourth consecutive current account surplus in 2026, while stronger foreign exchange liquidity, Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) purchases and anticipated multilateral inflows should keep the rupee broadly stable at Rs. 330-335 against the US dollar (USD) for the remainder of the year, a Softlogic Stockbrokers Equity Research said.

In its latest Sri Lanka Economic Outlook, the brokerage forecast a current account surplus of $ 250-300 million in 2026, equivalent to about 0.3% of GDP, as resilient workers’ remittances and moderating oil prices offset softer exports and tourism earnings.

Workers’ remittances are projected to rise 12% year-on-year (YoY) to a record $ 9 billion, while tourism arrivals are forecast to broadly match 2025 levels at about 2.3 million. However, tourism earnings are expected to fall 10% to $ 2.9 billion due to lower average tourist spending and a changing visitor mix.

On the currency, Softlogic Stockbrokers said stronger foreign exchange liquidity and the CBSL’s return as a net buyer had helped stabilise the rupee, with year-to-date (YTD) net purchases approaching $ 1 billion.

Expected multilateral inflows, including $ 200 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and $ 150 million from the World Bank, should provide an additional external liquidity buffer and help keep the rupee within the Rs. 330-335/USD range over the remainder of 2026.