Questions mount over accuracy of COVID vaccine procurement

• Health professionals, private sector in the dark over SPC Chief’s claims of securing/ordering 32 m vaccine doses
• In 5 months, SL has only sourced and administered less than 2 million doses
• Professionals call for transparency of procurement with information made available on web site
• Experts insist vaccines must be sourced urgently
• Compare estimated cost of $ 300 m is equivalent to 0.3% of country’s GDP, 2.5% of export earnings and 10% of potential tourism revenue
• Employees of key economic sectors – apparel, tourism, construction, plantations, IT, etc. at risk without vaccines
• Rapid vaccination is key to ensure realisation of $ 12 b export earnings, rebound of economy to 5% growth from worst-ever recession last year

Despite the revelation by the Gover-nment that 32 million doses of COVID vaccines have been ordered, more questions are being raised over the accuracy and credence of the claimed procurement. 

State Pharma-ceuticals Corporation (SPC) Chairman Dr. Prasanna Gunasena was quoted yesterday by the Daily FT as saying 32 million doses have been ordered, with 2.5 million of it being delivered between Tuesday and first two weeks of June. Within this is China's donation of 500,000 doses.

However, health sector professionals and the private sector are concerned as to whether the relevant orders have been placed, quantities secured and at what cost.

Concerns over the delay of procurement are on the rise as employees in key economic sectors – apparel, tourism, plantations, construction and ICT amounting to millions – have no clue whether they will be vaccinated. 

The country’s vaccine procurement success rests on an eight-member task force appointed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in early January 2021. As of Sunday, 1.45 million first doses have been administered, but only 333,000 second doses. This means in the first five months, only less than two million had been sourced and administered. In that context, the SPC Chief’s confidence of securing 32 million doses by December is questionable, sources opined. 

It was also pointed out that in the national interest, transparency, accountability and public confidence, the SPC must put out the details of orders or purchases made (amounting to 32 million doses) on their web site.

The private sector has volunteered to finance as well as engage in the procurement, but the Government has so far said it can and will manage on its own. 

Whilst the Government’s procurement cost is unknown, the private sector estimates if the SPC Chairman’s claim is right, the cost would be around $ 300 million after discounting the $ 80 million recently extended by the World Bank. 

Given the foreign exchange crisis faced by the country, the private sector isn’t convinced that the Government has actually placed the order, despite claims. 

Nevertheless, they emphasised that vaccines must be bought as fast as possible, and the Government need to prioritise the same at any cost. In recent days, daily COVID cases have increased to over 3,000 with the cumulative figure at 164,201, of whom 34,416 persons are under medical care. The number of COVID deaths amounts to 1,210 by Sunday.

“Vaccination has been suggested as the best defence against the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimated $ 300 million amounts to a mere 0.3% of the country’s GDP of $ 80.7 billion in 2020,” the private sector pointed out.

Based on forecast export earnings of $ 12 billion this year, the cost amounts to 2.5%, even though none of the employees of the key sectors have been fully vaccinated despite repeated appeals. In terms of the tourism sector’s potential earnings ($ 4.3 billion in 2018 and $ 3.6 billion 2019), the cost is around 10%. The Hotels Association of Sri Lanka (THASL) has renewed its appeal to vaccinate tourism sector employees to ensure rapid recovery once leisure travel resumes. 

Given its resilience, the export sector has managed to deliver so far on the Government’s set target of $ 12 billion earnings for 2021, up from $ 10 billion last year. 

Prior to the spike in COVID-19 cases, the first quarter saw exports growing by 11.5% to $ 2.6 billion, just falling $ 400 million short of its target.

Rapid vaccination is also critical to re-opening the country and resuming normal activity, including tourism to ensure estimated economic growth this year. 

Largely due to the COVID pandemic, the economy in 2020 contracted by 3.6%, marking the deepest recession since Independence. However, the Government has been inspired by an uptick in growth in the last two quarters of 2020. 

Supported by policy stimulus and improving business sentiments, the Central Bank has projected a 6% growth for 2021, slightly above the 5.5% estimated by Government in its 2021 Budget. Multilateral donor agencies have also revised global growth projections upwards to 6% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.

The December 2020 quarter, despite the second wave of COVID, saw a 1.3% growth in comparison to a year earlier, whilst the September 2020 quarter recorded a 1.5% improvement year-on-year. The economy contracted by 1.7% in 2020 1Q and more sharply by 16.3% in 2Q.

Headed by Principal Advisor to the President Lalith Weeratunga, other members of the Presidential Task Force for National Deployment and Vaccination Plan for COVID-19 vaccine are Secretary Health Ministry Secretary Major General Dr. Sanjeewa Munasinghe, State Ministry of Primary Health Care, Epidemics and COVID Disease Control Secretary Dr. Amal Harsha de Silva, State Ministry of Production, Supply and Regulation of Pharmaceuticals Secretary K.R. Uduwawala , Sri Lanka Army Commander and COVID-19 Task Force Head Major General Shavendra Silva, State Pharmaceuticals Corporation Chairman Dr. Prasanna Gunasena, Government Medical Officers’ Association President Dr. Anuruddha Padeniya and Health Services Director General Dr. Asela Gunawardena.

Globally over 1.67 billion vaccine doses have been administered equal to 22 doses for every 100 people. According to www.statista.com, nearly 30 countries including UAE, Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, UK, Maldives, US, Bhutan, Hungary, Malta, Canada,  have been either fully vaccinated, or over 50%, enabling them to resume normal public activity.