Mideast crisis slows tourism’s March momentum, YTD figure nears 650,000 mark

Tourism Deputy Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe

SLTPB Chairman Buddhika Hewawasam

• First 15 days of March arrivals fall 5.15% YoY to 92,573
• 447 arrival and 451 departure flights cancelled due to ME crisis; $ 40 m financial fallout so far
• Arrivals fall by 30,000-40,000, but officials optimistic March could close near 200,000
• YTD arrivals up 7.01% YoY to 649,228 visitors
• India continues to dominate as largest source market, followed by the UK and Russia 

By Charumini de Silva 

Sri Lanka’s tourism sector has begun to feel the strain of the escalating Middle East conflict, with visitor arrivals during the first 15 days of March falling 5.15% year-on-year (YoY), even as cumulative figures for 2026 remain firmly in positive territory.

The country attracted 92,573 visitors between 1 and 15 March, as airspace closures, airport shutdowns and rising jet fuel costs disrupted key transit routes and dampened travel flows.

Tourism Deputy Minister Prof. Ruwan Ranasinghe confirmed a sharp drop in arrivals, particularly via major transit hubs in the Middle East, noting that the impact is now clearly visible in the numbers.

“Tourist arrivals via transit in the Middle East have fallen by between 25% and 30% in recent weeks,” he told the media, attributing the decline to both direct travel disruptions and reduced transit traffic through major regional hubs.

By 15 March, a total of 447 arrival flights and 451 departure flights had been cancelled due to the ongoing geopolitical situation. The Deputy Minister estimated the financial fallout at around $ 40 million so far.

Industry stakeholders said the sector’s vulnerability stems largely from its reliance on Middle Eastern transit hubs. Nearly 30% of all tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka pass through these hubs, making the country particularly exposed to disruptions caused by airspace closures and rising aviation costs.

Cancelled transit flights have severely affected European holidaymakers, traditionally a strong market during the winter season. Airlines are being forced to reroute flights on longer and costlier paths, pushing up ticket prices and discouraging discretionary travel.

Despite the setback, daily arrival data shows resilience. From 1 to 15 March, arrivals were recorded at 5,426, 6,376, 5,651, 5,663, 6,285, 5,596, 6,279, 6,370, 6,350, 6,493, 6,509, 5,612, 5,883, 7,318 and 6,762 respectively. This indicated a slight upward trend in weekly arrivals from 41,276 in first week to 44,535 in the second week, even amid the crisis.

Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) and Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB) Chairman Buddhika Hewawasam on Tuesday said the industry had experienced a shortfall of around 38,000 to 40,000 tourists during the first half of March compared to initial projections.

However, he expressed cautious optimism that March could still close with around 200,000 arrivals if current trends continue.

The strong performance in January and February, both record-breaking months, has provided a vital buffer against the current slowdown. The year-to-date (YTD) arrivals have risen 7.01% YoY to 649,228 visitors.

India continues to dominate as Sri Lanka’s largest source market, accounting for 23,224 visitors or 25% of total arrivals for the first 15 days of the month. It also leads the YTD table with 122,984 visitors.

The UK followed with 8,565 arrivals in the first half of March, while Russia registered 8,126, China 7,701 and Germany 7,297. Other notable markets included Australia, France, the United States, Japan and Canada.

On a cumulative basis, the UK has contributed 68,893 visitors so far this year, followed by Russia with 58,359, Germany with 47,639 and China with 41,884.

The latest data suggests that while European arrivals have softened due to transit disruptions, Indian travellers have helped cushion the blow, sustaining overall footfall during a period of heightened global uncertainty.

To offset the European shortfall, tourism authorities are accelerating promotional campaigns across Asia, with a strong focus on India. Regional connectivity and shorter-haul travel are seen as key advantages during periods of long-haul instability.

The Government has set an ambitious target of attracting 3 million visitors and generating $ 4 billion in tourism revenue by the end of 2026.

However, industry observers caution that prolonged geopolitical instability and sustained high fuel prices could weigh more heavily on global travel demand in the months ahead.

 - Pix by Lasantha Kumara