Saturday Oct 31, 2026
Saturday Oct 31, 2026
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Rising workplace heat stress could cost Sri Lanka around $ 26 billion in annual GDP and the equivalent of 145,000 full-time jobs by 2040 even under a low-emissions pathway, the International Labour Organization (ILO) said yesterday, citing new studies on Sri Lanka and the Maldives.
The losses are not only a future risk. Heat stress driven by climate change cost Sri Lanka $ 6.5 billion more in lost output in 2023 than in the average year of the 1985-2014 reference period, and the equivalent of over 120,000 full-time jobs, the ILO said. Agriculture is likely to be the hardest hit, followed by services, manufacturing and construction.
“These findings make clear that heat stress is already affecting workers, enterprises and economies in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. Protecting workers from heat stress needs to be part of how we approach occupational safety and health, climate adaptation and economic resilience. Through social dialogue, governments, employers and workers can develop practical solutions that protect health and livelihoods while sustaining productive enterprises,” ILO Country Director for Sri Lanka and the Maldives Joni Simpson said.
According to the ILO factsheet ‘Impacts of heat stress on jobs and productivity in Sri Lanka’, the services sector accounted for the largest share of the 2023 GDP loss at $ 2.7 billion, or 41.9%, followed by transport and trade at $ 1.25 billion (19.3%). Manufacturing lost $ 920 million (14.1%), agriculture $ 750 million (11.5%), construction $ 655 million (10%) and mining and quarrying $ 211 million (3.2%). The figures are in fixed 2015 prices.
Job losses, proxied from work hours lost, were concentrated in agriculture, which accounted for 48%, or 57,230, of the 120,300 full-time equivalent jobs lost. Services followed with 22% (26,529), manufacturing 13% (15,176), construction 11% (13,154) and transport and trade 6% (7,529).
The economy lost 241 million work hours, or 1.62% of available hours, with agriculture the worst affected at 2.69%. Some 35% of the jobs were lost in the second quarter, the period of most intense heat.
“Reduced labour productivity under high heat stress is not only a matter of slower movement; it also includes reduced work output and increased error rates,” the ILO said.
During the reference period, productivity loss due to heat stress fluctuated between 15% and 18% in agriculture and construction, and held at about 10%-12% in manufacturing, mining and quarrying, services, and transportation and trade.
Sri Lanka’s mean temperature has already risen by about 1°C since the 1960s. Looking ahead, the ILO modelled four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), the scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), ranging from a sustainable, low-emission world (SSP1-2.6) to continued heavy fossil fuel use (SSP5-8.5). Maximum temperature is projected to rise by 2°C under the lower-emission scenarios and by up to 6°C by late century under the highest, while WBGT would rise by about 2°C to as much as 5°C.
Even on the Paris-aligned trajectory (SSP1-2.6), the 2040 loss of $ 26.1 billion, or 11.8% of GDP, would rise to 13%, or $ 65.6 billion, in 2060, relative to baseline losses. Under the middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2-4.5), the contraction would deepen from 11.5% ($ 21.1 billion) in 2040 to 13.7% ($ 51.7 billion) in 2060. The regional-rivalry scenario (SSP3-7.0) would push the burden to 13.5% by 2060, equal to $ 37.2 billion given the slow economic growth assumed under it. Should fossil-fuel development continue unabated (SSP5-8.5), the loss could reach 15.2%, or $ 87.1 billion, by 2060.
Job losses would follow a similar path. Beyond the 145,000 under SSP1-2.6, the economy would lose the equivalent of 161,000 full-time jobs under SSP2-4.5 and 210,000-220,000 under the high-emission scenarios by 2040. By 2060, losses would range from 158,000, or 2.1% of the labour force, under SSP1-2.6 to over 272,000 under SSP2-4.5, 314,000 under SSP3-7.0 and nearly 349,000 under SSP5-8.5, where heat would cut more than 4.6% of total work hours.
ILO’s recommendations include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods, shade, hydration and cooling stations, heat-tolerant crop varieties, improved ventilation in factories and mines, real-time WBGT monitoring, stronger occupational safety and health standards and greater awareness of heat-related risks. The ILO also stressed the importance of social protection, particularly for workers who cannot reduce their working hours without losing essential income.
