Demographic shift deepens as ageing, low fertility and inactivity reshape economy: Census 2024

55.4% of households rely on firewood for cooking

 Elderly share rises to 18% as fertility stays below replacement

 Over half of working-age population economically inactive (52.7% vs. 47.3% participation)

 Single-person households at 10.5% with over 370,000 elderly living alone

 Health burden (19.2% with NCDs) and reliance on firewood (55.4% of households) signal structural risks

Sri Lanka’s latest Census of Population and Housing points to a structural shift in the country’s economic foundations, with ageing, low fertility, and weak labour force participation emerging as the most critical pressures on future growth and fiscal stability.

According to the 15th Census of Population and Housing – 2024 Final Report released by the Department of Census and Statics earlier this month, the population stood at 21.78 million in 2024, but the more consequential shift lies in its composition. 

The elderly population now accounts for 18% of the total, while the child population has declined to 20.7%, pushing the Aging Index to 87, or 87 elderly persons for every 100 children.

This transition is reinforced by a Total Fertility Rate of 1.3, well below replacement level, and a rising median age of 35 years, indicating a rapidly maturing population. The result is a narrowing future workforce alongside a growing dependency burden, with the Old-Age Dependency Ratio climbing to 29.4 even as the Child Dependency Ratio declines.

Despite a working-age population of 61.3%, labour force participation remains at 47.3%, leaving 52.7% economically inactive. The inactivity reflects structural constraints rather than cyclical weakness. More than half of inactive women are outside the workforce due to domestic and caregiving responsibilities, while male inactivity is largely linked to education and training.

The census also points to emerging social vulnerabilities. Single-person households now account for 10.5% of all households, with over 640,000 individuals living alone. Of these, 370,229 are aged 60 and above, and a majority are female. This trend, alongside a high incidence of widowhood among elderly women, signals increasing pressure on social protection systems.

Health data reinforce the fiscal implications. Around 19.2% of the population, or 4.18 million people, report suffering from non-communicable diseases, with more than half of those aged 60 and above affected by at least one chronic condition. The prevalence of high blood pressure and diabetes, combined with an identified “health literacy gap,” points to rising long-term healthcare costs.

Migration patterns further complicate the labour outlook. While 13% of the population are lifetime migrants within the country, 672,249 Sri Lankans are temporarily living abroad, primarily for employment. The continued outflow of working-age individuals, particularly males, suggests a tightening domestic labour pool even as remittance dependency persists.

Regional imbalances remain pronounced. Nearly two-thirds of the population is concentrated in four provinces, with the Western Province alone accounting for 28.1%. Employment-driven migration into Colombo and Gampaha highlights the continued centralisation of economic activity, raising questions about balanced regional development.

At the same time, the census reflects progress in human capital. Literacy has reached 97.4%, with the gender gap effectively closed, while digital literacy stands at 67.6%. However, the disconnect between education and workforce participation suggests underutilised capacity.

The housing and infrastructure profile indicates near-universal access to electricity and improved sanitation, but also reveals persistent reliance on traditional energy sources, with 55.4% of households still using firewood for cooking.

The 2024 census, the first to use information technology for nationwide data collection, provides a comprehensive snapshot of a country at a demographic inflection point. While headline indicators such as literacy and infrastructure show progress, the underlying trends of ageing, low fertility, labour inactivity, and rising health burdens point to a more complex economic challenge that will shape Sri Lanka’s policy priorities in the years ahead.