December tourist surge gathers pace 

• First 21 days welcome 154,609 visitors, pushing YTD figure to over 2.25 m
• Daily average arrivals at 7,362
• India remains single biggest source market with over half-a-million arrivals YTD, followed by UK and Russia

The tourism sector has gathered pace through December, welcoming 154,609 visitors in the first 21 days of the month and lifting year-to-date (YTD) arrivals to over 2.25 million (2,258,202). 

The latest data from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA) point to strengthening momentum as the peak season unfolds, even as the numbers underline how demanding the year-end targets remain.

Arrivals have risen steadily week by week. The first week of December drew 43,976 tourists, followed by 49,054 in the second week, an increase of about 11.5%. The third week marked a sharper jump to 61,579 arrivals, up nearly 25.5% from the preceding week. This progression pushed the daily average for the first three weeks to 7,362 visitors, a clear improvement on early-month performance and a signal of rising seasonal demand.

The SLTDA has set a December target of 344,309 arrivals. With 154,609 visitors recorded in the first 21 days, Sri Lanka still needs around 189,700 tourists over the remaining 10 days of the month. That implies a daily inflow of close to 19,000 arrivals, more than two and a half times the current average. Even with a strong year-end rush, such a leap would require an exceptional surge well beyond recent trends.

The comparison with earlier benchmarks sharpens the contrast. December 2024 brought in 248,592 tourists, while December 2018, widely seen as the industry’s pre-crisis high benchmark, registered 253,169 arrivals for the entire month. Against that yardstick, the 2025 target is roughly 36% more ambitious than the pre-crisis peak, highlighting the widening gap between aspiration and historical performance.

Market composition continues to provide a measure of stability. India led arrivals in the first 21 days of December with 35,337 visitors, accounting for 23% of the total. Russia followed with 15,674 tourists or 10%, while the UK contributed 12,961 (8%), Germany 10,682 (7%), and Australia 8,810 (6%). 

The dominance of India is even more pronounced on an YTD basis, with 510,133 visitors so far, followed by the UK with 204,703 and Russia with 174,267.

If December merely sustains its current daily average through to month-end, full-year arrivals would settle closer to 2.31 million. That outcome would place Sri Lanka comfortably above pre-pandemic volumes and confirm a solid recovery year, but it would still fall short of even the most cautious of the authority’s revised scenarios. 

Achieving the “Conservative Scenario” of 2.676 million arrivals, or the more aspirational 3 million “Optimistic Scenario,” would demand an unprecedented late-month influx that recent data do not yet justify.

The tourism industry’s recovery remains on an upward trajectory, but December’s final tally will determine whether 2025 closes as a year of consolidation or one that meaningfully resets expectations for the sector’s post-crisis ambitions.

Financially, during the first 11 months of 2025, tourism generated over $ 2.9 billion, a modest 3.7% increase year-on-year (YoY). Although this suggests improving yields and spending, revenues remain 34.2% below the $ 3.9 billion earned during the same period in 2018, the year Sri Lanka posted its record annual tourism income of $ 4.38 billion.