Oil rebounds as Iran ceasefire doubts keep Hormuz risk in play

Friday, 10 April 2026 00:05 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}

Oil prices rebounded on Thursday as markets reassessed the durability of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran announced earlier in the week, with fresh uncertainty centred on the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. crude rose above $102 per barrel in early trade before easing to around $96 by mid-afternoon, while international benchmark Brent pared earlier gains to trade near $94 per barrel.

The rebound followed a sharp sell-off on Wednesday, when U.S. crude fell more than 16% after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement. However, sentiment turned as doubts emerged over compliance and enforcement.

Market focus remained fixed on shipping flows through Hormuz, where fewer than half a dozen vessels were observed transiting on Wednesday, raising concerns over continued disruption to global supply.

Analysts said the price recovery reflected fading confidence in the truce. ING noted that optimism had weakened after Tehran signalled that elements of the agreement had been breached, while continued hostilities in the region added to uncertainty.

Iranian media reported that the strait had been closed again following Israeli strikes on Lebanon, while Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the U.S. of violating the deal, warning of “strong responses”.

Key sticking points remain unresolved. Iran has insisted that any ceasefire must include a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon, while the U.S. and Israel maintain that the conflicts are separate. Disagreement also persists over maritime access, with Washington demanding full reopening of the strait and Tehran signalling intentions to regulate transit, including potential tolls.

Meanwhile, U.S. retail fuel prices continued to rise, with the national average reaching $4.17 per gallon, extending a month-long upward trend driven by geopolitical risk and supply constraints.