First Capital’s Mid-Year Outlook Investor Forum 2025 leads dialogue in market strategy and inclusion

First Capital Holdings PLC, a subsidiary of JXG (Janashakthi Group) and a pioneering full-service investment institution, recently concluded its highly anticipated Mid-Year Outlook Investor Forum 2025. Held on 17 July, the virtual forum recorded over 900 registrations. This overwhelming response underscores the growing need for timely, expert financial guidance in Sri Lanka’s evolving economic climate. In a landmark move, the forum was conducted for the very first time in Sinhala, Tamil and English. This allowed for a broader cross-section of Sri Lankans to actively engage with critical investment insights. This initiative reflects First Capital’s commitment to providing access to financial knowledge and delivering impactful solutions to communities across the island. 

As part of the events proceedings, First Capital Holdings PLC Assistant Vice President – Research Ranjan Ranatunga highlighted several key macroeconomic projections during his presentation. He noted that the LKR/USD target of 300–310 has been extended to December 2025, driven by the Central Bank’s continued dollar purchases. However, he cautioned that the rupee may see a mild depreciation to 305–315 in the first half of 2026 due to a widening trade deficit and softening export performance.

Ranatunga also announced a revision in the ASPI target to 18,000–19,000 for 2025, with expectations of further growth to 21,000–22,000 in 2026, supported by strong earnings and a favourable interest rate environment. Inflation, measured by the CCPI, is expected to turn modestly positive at 1.9% following the reversal of electricity tariff cuts, before rising to 4.5% in 2026 aligning with the Central Bank’s medium-term targets. 

In terms of interest rates, the Average Weighted Prime Rate (AWPR) is forecast to fall to between 7.5% and 8.5% following a likely 25-basis-point policy rate cut by the end of 2025. However, with rising government borrowing needs and recovering private sector demand, the AWPR is expected to increase slightly to 8.0%–9.0% in 2026.

The forum also featured a highly thought-provoking panel discussion with a selection of industry experts including, Hemas Holdings PLC Group CFO Moiz Rehmanjee, Advantis Bunkering Director and CEO Kushan De Silva and Access Engineering PLC Executive Vice Chairman Christopher Joshua. The discussion was moderated by First Capital Chief Research and Strategy Officer Dimantha Matthew. 

During the discussion, Hemas Holdings PLC Group CFO Moiz Rehmanjee, highlighted revival of consumer demand to pre-pandemic levels, and emphasised the consumption patterns that now favour lifestyle, wellness and aspirational beauty products. Rehmanjee also highlighted the importance of driving pharmaceutical innovation and pricing efficiency, in order to reduce Sri Lanka’s high dependency on imports in that particular sector. 

Additionally, Advantis Bunkering Director and CEO Kushan De Silva, spoke extensively about the pressures faced by the logistics industry. Especially due to geopolitical tensions around the world, along with fluctuating prices of oil. He noted that due to Sri Lanka’s heavy dependency of oil imports, the recent infrastructure developments including the West and East Container Terminals have been of paramount importance. These developments have enhanced the country’s transshipment capacity and mitigated logistical bottlenecks. 

Access Engineering PLC Executive Vice Chairman Christopher Joshua highlighted the current positive momentum of the construction sector, which is fuelled by lower interest rates. He explained that improved affordability has continuously encouraged the rise in residential projects and highlighted the need for the Government to fast-track high-impact infrastructure developments. One such example is the second terminal at the Bandaranaike International Airport, which is crucial for tourism and regional economic upliftment. 

The First Capital Mid-Year Outlook Investor Forum 2025 successfully brought together research, corporate insight, and real-world experiences. The forum successfully equipped investors with practical knowledge, and also advanced inclusive financial literacy. As Sri Lanka’s economic narrative continues to evolve, First Capital remains a forerunner in empowering people to make confident, well informed investment decisions.