Xi Jinping’s blueprint for China 2030

China's President Xi Jinping

 Shanghai China aerial view

Examining China’s approach through the lens of the 15th Five-Year Plan underscores the value of centralised, long-term planning in sustaining economic and social development. While democratic systems rely on representation and periodic elections to guide policy, even capable leaders can face discontinuities that disrupt long-term initiatives. In contrast, China’s one-party model allows for continuity, strategic foresight, and coordinated execution, enabling the Government to align industrial modernisation, technological innovation, and social programs with national priorities. By studying this model, policymakers and analysts can gain insights into how stability, professionalism, and sustained focus can be harnessed to implement large-scale economic plans, lessons that remain relevant in a world where achieving long-term development goals often requires both vision and consistency

I am writing this article in the context of ongoing discussions on open economies and the relationship between political arrangements and economic development. Political-economic systems around the world generally fall into three broad models: the democratic political arrangements typical of many Western nations, open economies with an authorised but limited role for the State as seen in Singapore and Malaysia and open economies with a socialist character, exemplified by China, where the ruling Party and the State operate as a unified entity. Examining the Chinese model offers a unique opportunity to explore whether centralised, Party-led governance can enhance professionalism in policymaking. 

Historical experience demonstrates the challenges of policy continuity in democratic systems. Ambitious national plans in Sri Lanka from the 1950’s 10-year plan, the 1970’s 5-year plan, to the 1978 six-year plan were often restructured or abandoned by successive Governments due to shifting political agendas. Even in systems with strong representation, electing a capable leader does not always ensure effective or consistent policymaking. Such failures frequently led to inefficient use of public funds, incomplete projects, or underutilised outcomes. Similar patterns can be observed in other democratic contexts, including India. Against this backdrop, the Chinese approach anchored in long-term planning, centralised decision-making, and sustained policy implementation, offers a case study for assessing whether a one-party system can create the stability, continuity, and professionalism necessary for effective economic and social development. This article will elaborate on the 15th Five-Year Plan (2025-2030) as a lens through which to evaluate the broader implications of China’s political-economic model.

China is preparing to enter a new chapter in its long-term development trajectory as the fourth plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) sets the direction for the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP), covering the period from 2026 to 2030. This upcoming plan is not simply another administrative roadmap. It represents a pivotal phase in China’s historic quest to achieve “socialist modernisation” by 2035 and transform itself into a fully modern socialist country by mid-century.

Five-year plans have served as the backbone of China’s economic governance since 1953. Over more than seven decades, they have coordinated industrial strategies, guided social transformation, and laid the groundwork for China’s rapid rise into the world’s second-largest economy. As the global landscape becomes increasingly complex and as China pursues high-quality development under new circumstances, the 15th FYP is widely seen as a blueprint that will shape not just economic performance but the country’s broader trajectory of modernisation, national security, and global engagement.

A defining moment for China’s development

The 14th FYP period (2021–2025) has been marked by extraordinary challenges: the COVID-19 pandemic, disruptions in global supply chains, rising geopolitical tensions, and a volatile global economy. Despite these headwinds, China’s economy expanded at an average rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024. The total economic increment during this period is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan roughly equivalent to the annual GDP of a major developed economy. Per capita GDP has risen to USD 13,445, positioning China at the upper tier of middle-income countries.

These achievements have consolidated China’s earlier milestones: eradicating absolute poverty and completing the construction of a “moderately prosperous society.” With these goals accomplished, the next stage of national development focuses squarely on innovation, modernisation, and sustainable long-term growth.

The 15th FYP period therefore serves as the bridge between China’s current development level and the more ambitious milestone of basically achieving socialist modernisation by 2035. The decisions made today will influence not only economic policies but also the fundamental contours of China’s governance system, industrial structure, and international footprint for years to come.

The real economy: Foundation and ‘Ballast Stone’

Central to the 15th FYP’s strategy is the reinforcement of the real economy, manufacturing, construction, agriculture, and services. These sectors collectively employ more than 400 million people, or 53% of China’s total workforce. The CPC often describes the real economy as the “Ballast Stone” of the national economy, reflecting its stabilising role during periods of global uncertainty.

Manufacturing, in particular, remains a strategic priority. Over the past 15 years, China has maintained its position as the world’s largest manufacturing powerhouse, supported by deep supply chains, vast market demand, and heavy investment in industrial technology. This industrial strength has been a critical source of resilience amid trade tensions, global competition, and emerging technological rivalry.

China’s capacity to domestically produce advanced equipment, materials, and intermediate goods has strengthened significantly. This has given the country “confidence in its trade war with the U.S.,” as noted by Reuters, because its manufacturing ecosystem is both comprehensive and increasingly self-reliant.

During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the Chinese Government has set out a comprehensive strategy to reinforce the foundations of the real economy, focusing on both modernisation and future readiness. Traditional manufacturing sectors, which still account for over 80% of the industry, including automotive, textiles, steel, chemicals, and machinery, are being upgraded through digitisation, automation, smart manufacturing, and green transformation. According to Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission, these efforts are expected to unlock new market opportunities worth around 10 trillion yuan (USD 1.4 trillion), improving energy efficiency, productivity, and competitiveness through the adoption of digital and environmentally friendly technologies. 

At the same time, China is fostering strategic emerging industries and accelerating the development of industrial clusters in fields such as new energy, biotechnology, advanced materials, and high-end equipment, while also laying the groundwork for future industries including quantum technologies, next-generation AI, brain-computer interfaces, and space technologies. This approach not only seeks to capture new growth areas but also to secure technological autonomy in sectors that will define global competition over the coming decades.

The Government is also emphasising the high-quality development of the service sector, integrating advanced manufacturing with modern services such as digital platforms, logistics, R&D, and financial services to create new drivers of productivity and innovation. This shift reflects China’s broader transition from an investment-driven model toward one that is more innovation- and consumption-driven, aligning with the aspirations of a growing middle class. Complementing these industrial and service initiatives, China is advancing a modern infrastructure system that prioritises “new infrastructure” including next-generation information networks, smart transportation, clean energy systems, advanced logistics hubs, and digital public service platforms. Strengthening regional coordination in infrastructure development is intended to support economic integration, reduce disparities, and stimulate domestic circulation, reinforcing the core principles of China’s new development paradigm.

Innovation as the engine of modernisation

Scientific and technological innovation lies at the heart of China’s vision for modernisation. In recent years, China has made notable progress in high-performance computing, chip manufacturing, large-scale AI models, aerospace technologies, and quantum research.

The country’s “AI Plus” initiative is expanding the integration of AI into research, industry, public services, and daily life. AI-driven applications are reshaping manufacturing processes, enabling precision agriculture, enhancing public health systems, and creating new consumption patterns.

In addition, China continues to push the frontiers of strategic and emerging technologies, making significant advancements across multiple high-impact fields. In quantum technology, the country has achieved breakthroughs in quantum communication and computing, while its space program has advanced through manned spaceflight, lunar exploration, and deep-space missions. China has also strengthened its leadership in new energy, becoming a global force in electric vehicles, solar panels, batteries, and green hydrogen. In materials science, the development of next-generation semiconductor materials, advanced composites, and superconductive materials demonstrates the nation’s commitment to technological self-reliance. Together, these emerging capabilities not only reduce China’s vulnerability in critical sectors but also enhance its influence within global innovation networks.

Unlocking domestic demand: A new development paradigm

A major feature of the next five years will be the expansion of domestic demand as the primary engine of economic growth. This is central to the “dual circulation” strategy, which emphasises internal circulation, domestic consumption, investment, and production as the main pillar, complemented by external circulation through global trade and investment.

To stimulate consumption and investment, China aims to tap into new demand across several emerging sectors. The “ice and snow economy” leverages winter sports, tourism, and related industries, while the “silver economy” focuses on the rapidly aging population through healthcare, rehabilitation, and elderly-friendly products and services. The “low-altitude economy” targets the development of drones, aerial logistics, urban air mobility, and disaster-response technologies, and rural consumption is being boosted through e-commerce, local services, agricultural modernisation, and rural tourism. Together, these initiatives reflect China’s efforts to diversify its economic structure while addressing pressing social challenges such as population aging, urban-rural disparities, and regional inequality.

Advancing green development and climate leadership

China has emerged as a major global player in green technologies, spanning renewable energy, electric mobility, and sustainable infrastructure. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, green development will continue to be a central focus, supporting the country’s dual carbon goals of peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Priority areas include expanding renewable energy capacity across solar, wind, hydro, and nuclear sectors, strengthening carbon markets and green finance mechanisms, and promoting low-carbon cities alongside eco-friendly transportation networks.

In addition, China is advancing clean production processes, circular economy practices, and measures to enhance climate resilience in both urban and rural areas. Its green technologies, particularly solar products and electric vehicles, have become internationally competitive and cost-effective, positioning China as a global leader in climate solutions. These initiatives not only support domestic sustainability but also allow the country to play a leading role in international efforts to combat climate change.

Deepening reform and high-standard opening up

China plans to implement more than 300 reform measures introduced during the recent third plenum of the CPC Central Committee, targeting key areas such as property rights systems, public finance, digital governance, business regulation, and market mechanisms. These reforms aim to enhance institutional efficiency, improve market operations, and create a more supportive environment for innovation and sustainable economic growth, reflecting the Government’s commitment to deepening structural and institutional modernisation.

In parallel, China will continue its high-standard opening-up strategy by expanding free trade zones and port development, promoting cross-border digital trade, supporting foreign investment in high-tech and green sectors, and strengthening international cooperation in innovation, climate action, and infrastructure. Despite the challenges posed by global geopolitical tensions, the country remains committed to an open global economy, fostering global connectivity, and advancing multilateral cooperation to ensure China’s integration with the international community while pursuing its domestic development goals.

Conclusion: A blueprint for national rejuvenation

The 15th Five-Year Plan arrives at a transformative moment in China’s development. As the country navigates technological competition, demographic changes, economic restructuring, and global uncertainties, the plan offers a coherent vision grounded in stability, innovation, and long-term strategic planning.

Five-year plans remain a distinctive feature of China’s governance model, one that emphasises continuity, foresight, and national mobilisation. Unlike policy cycles in many countries that change with electoral politics, China’s plans reflect long-term commitments shared by the CPC and the Chinese people.

Examining China’s approach through the lens of the 15th Five-Year Plan underscores the value of centralised, long-term planning in sustaining economic and social development. While democratic systems rely on representation and periodic elections to guide policy, even capable leaders can face discontinuities that disrupt long-term initiatives. In contrast, China’s one-party model allows for continuity, strategic foresight, and coordinated execution, enabling the Government to align industrial modernisation, technological innovation, and social programs with national priorities. By studying this model, policymakers and analysts can gain insights into how stability, professionalism, and sustained focus can be harnessed to implement large-scale economic plans, lessons that remain relevant in a world where achieving long-term development goals often requires both vision and consistency.

(The author heads the NEXUS Research Group, a Colombo-based think tank focused on policy research, Strategic advocacy and analysis. He is a respected academic, administrator, and policymaker with extensive experience in governance, media, environmental policy, and philosophy. Before entering the political sphere, he served as Chair Professor at the University of Peradeniya, Secretary to the Ministry of Mass Media and Information (2012-2015), and Chairman of the Central Environmental Authority (2012-2015). As a former Member of Parliament and Chairman of the Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE), he played a significant role in advancing transparency and accountability in public administration. Dr. Herath pursued his graduate and postgraduate studies at the University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka, Ohio University, USA, Sichuan University, China and the University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. He can be reached at [email protected] or on Twitter @charitha9)