We are counting tourists, not measuring value: Part 2

Can Sri Lanka hit 

$ 5 b without fixing what it already knows is broken?

We are celebrating the biggest tourism year in our history – and risk wasting it.

In Part 1 of this series, I focused on what our customers are telling us. In Part 2, I turn to what the industry itself has been saying for years, often behind closed doors, in association meetings, boardrooms and committee rooms, and ask the uncomfortable question: why do these complaints so rarely translate into reform?

In the past, I have sat on tourism committees, task forces and associations. The problems have been remarkably consistent. What has changed is not the diagnosis, only the excuses for not implementing the cures.

At the time of writing, Sri Lanka Tourism is targeting three million arrivals and $5 billion in revenue in 2026. That sounds impressive. But when you examine the numbers, it becomes clear that this is not simply a volume target, it is a quality shift mandate.

The $ 5 b ambition — what the numbers really demand

Today Sri Lanka closes 2025 with roughly 2.4 million arrivals and about $3.5 billion in tourism revenue. To reach the 2026 target, the industry must grow arrivals by 25% and revenue by 43% in just one year.

That means the average revenue per tourist must rise from around $1,460 today to about $1,670 – an increase of roughly 15% per visitor. If average length of stay does not increase, daily spending must rise from about $170 per day to almost $200 per day.

Thailand already averages well above $220 per day and the Maldives over $700. Sri Lanka is trying to reach mid-tier performance while still operating a low-yield system.

Are we structurally capable of delivering that growth?

At three million arrivals, Sri Lanka would need to deliver nearly nine million room nights a year at today’s average stay lengths. Many coastal and hill-country destinations already report sell-outs during peak season, which means the system is operating close to capacity when demand is highest.

At the national gateway, the strain is even clearer: Bandaranaike International Airport was originally designed to handle around 6 million passengers a year, yet it processed over 11 million in 2024 – almost double its intended capacity.

In other words, we are trying to chase volume through a system already stretched to its limits, ensuring that growth comes at the expense of quality and value.

This is not incremental growth. It is a structural transformation. And it will not happen unless the machinery that delivers tourism is fundamentally repaired.

Why the system keeps failing to translate ambition into value

Governance and delivery failures – What is holding us back

These are the constraints that shape everything else.  Until they are fixed, improvements elsewhere will remain cosmetic.

1. Tourism Development Levy – the black box

The Tourism Development Levy is collected from the industry and was intended to fund tourism promotion and development. Yet few operators can clearly explain how much is collected, how it is spent, or who truly decides. How much goes towards international marketing? How much to internal administration? Where is the public reporting?

Although the levy is paid by the private sector the industry has no real line of sight or control over how it is deployed. Consultation exists, but accountability does not.

2. Implementation culture failure

This is the ultimate constraint. We diagnose accurately, debate endlessly and then stall. Projects die in sub-committees. Task forces outlive their relevance. The country does not suffer from lack of insight. It suffers from lack of delivery discipline.

3. Weak enforcement culture

Sri Lanka does not lack rules. It lacks owners of those rules. Everyone is responsible, so no one is accountable.

4. Absence of dashboard metrics

Sri Lanka does not have public dashboard metrics that show how tourism is actually performing in real time. In plain language, we are not systematically measuring how long tourists stay, how much they spend, where they go or what frustrates them. Policy is being made without evidence.

Revenue, brand and yield engines – Where value should be created

These are the levers that determine whether three million tourists mean $3 billion or $7 billion.

5. Destination marketing vacuum

Sri Lanka still does not have a coherent, long-term global tourism brand. We lurch from slogan to slogan, trade fair to trade fair, minister to minister, without sustained funding or a stable narrative. Countries like Thailand and Vietnam invest continuously, not episodically. This is one of the biggest structural weaknesses and one of the easiest to fix.

6. Experiential product failure

The Pekoe Trail shows what is possible when experiential tourism is taken seriously. But beyond this, curated routes, themed circuits and slow-tourism journeys remain underdeveloped. What about developing alternative experiential products like an Ancient Cities Trail or a Buddhist Pilgrimage Trail? We still sell destinations, not stories.

7. Wildlife tourism commercialisation

Yala is not a park problem; it is a system failure. Unlimited vehicles chasing limited sightings degrade both conservation and experience. Tiered pricing, zonal access and low-density permits are global best practice. We simply refuse to adopt them. Whale watching appears to be another poorly managed experience.

8. Licenced guide shortage and underutilised graduate talent

Sri Lanka needs around 6,400 licensed guides to meet tourism demand. It currently has only about 4,800 – a shortfall of 1,600 guides, or almost 25%. More than one in five guides operate informally. Every heritage site without a competent guide is a lost storytelling opportunity.

This critical shortage also represents a major untapped opportunity. Tourism and tour guiding could absorb a meaningful share of Arts and Social Science graduates who currently struggle to find aligned work.

Friction in access and movement – Where tourists are lost before they spend

9. Visa policy chaos

Tourism demand has been damaged more by policy flip-flops than any competitor ever could. Free visas one month, cancelled the next. Multiple categories announced, then quietly withdrawn. And despite official assurances, long-stay visitors still travel to Battaramulla to extend visas. This is not tourism policy.  It is tourism deterrence.

Sri Lanka should be looking seriously at offering 60-day ETA visas to low-risk source markets such as Western Europe, the USA, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea and Singapore.

10. Airport bottleneck until Terminal 2

BIA Terminal 2 is unlikely to be available till early-2029. Until then, urgent operational reforms, in immigration staffing, processes, and queue management, are critical to handle growing volumes.

A pragmatic interim measure would be to selectively divert charter and seasonal tourist flights to Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport during peak winter months. MRIA is closer to Ella, Yala, Udawalawe and Arugam Bay, sits beside the island’s fastest-growing resort corridor, and remains severely underutilised. Temporary incentives such as waived landing charges, fuel rebates and charter-only corridors could help activate a national asset that currently generates little return.

11. Fragmented transport ecosystem

Tourists consistently say they prefer regulated systems like PickMe with traceable drivers and fixed pricing. Yet we witness harassment of such systems and then fail to address it. Regulation protects visitors and drivers alike.

Capacity, standards and sustainability – The foundation we keep ignoring

12. Carrying capacity blindness

Growth without carrying capacity planning is chaos management. It is not just Yala. Ella, Mirissa, Sigiriya and Arugam Bay are already flashing warning lights. Without visitor caps and zoning, we will destroy the assets we rely on.

13. Human resource drain

Post-COVID, a significant exodus of trained tourism workers left the sector. There is no national tourism skills recovery plan, no accelerated certification, no wage-support framework. The unavoidable question is: how do we service growth and deliver quality with a workforce shortfall?

14. Crisis response vacuum

Cyclone Ditwah exposed the absence of any central tourist-crisis coordination system. No visitor registry, no unified messaging, no emergency helpdesk. In a disaster-prone country, this is indefensible.

15. Underused local tourism associations

Regional tourism bodies should be managing beach clean-ups, signage, litter bins and awareness campaigns. Instead, they wait for Colombo.

Conclusion – Counting tourists, not measuring value

We are celebrating record arrivals while the average stay shrinks. We are counting tourists, not measuring what they leave behind.

Unless Sri Lanka fixes the structural machinery of tourism – from governance and marketing to access, standards and crisis response – the $5 billion ambition will become another hollow milestone.

Growth without reform is not strategy. It is how countries squander opportunity.

(The author is a business leader specialising in hospitality, tourism, and investment. As Chairman and CEO of private companies and a board member of three publicly listed companies, he is actively engaged in hotel development and asset management in Sri Lanka. He can be contacted at: [email protected])