Roadmap for Sri Lanka’s regenerative future

Adopting a national regenerative agriculture strategy represents a rare and potent convergence of domestic political will, international strategic priorities, and global market forces  

Across South Asia, the weather now writes the headlines. One month parched, the next month a deluge. On a small island with big farming traditions, there is a calmer path that honours both the harvest and the river.

The agricultural systems across South Asia are going through a significant change due to climate change. Our farmers, who are soldiers protecting the region’s food and nutrition security, have traditionally absorbed low prices to feed billions of not-so-rich citizens across the region. But now they have to fight new forces of hotter baseline temperatures, more erratic monsoons, and longer, harsher extremes of flood and drought. In the last decade, it was still an academic debate. But by the middle of this decade, there is unanimity among all major scientific institutions that “climate change is not a hoax”. The IPCC reports now characterise the region’s exposure as “high” and worsening, with large areas projected to experience dangerous heat stress even if mid-range warming pathways are achieved, and heavy precipitation events intensifying alongside dry-spell risk. 

It essentially means we are facing yield volatility, input inefficiency—especially water—pest–disease pressure, and labour productivity losses during peak seasons. From a macroeconomic perspective, the situation also looks bleak. Climate change is no longer a debate for environmental scientists; it is a current human rights crisis that determines who eats, works, stays healthy, has a home, and who is left without dignity. The International Labour Organisation (2024) reports that by 2030, heat stress alone could reduce 5.8% of working hours in South Asia, equating to about 34 million full-time jobs, with agriculture and construction the most affected. The financing gap is equally urgent. The Asian Development Bank (2024) estimates that developing Asia will need $ 102–431 billion annually through 2030 for adaptation, but current funding is only a small part of this—around $ 34 billion was committed in 2021–22. Most of this investment goes into flood management, coastal protection, and climate-resilient agriculture, all crucial for maintaining South Asia’s food systems and rural economies. 

Sri Lanka: Why the island’s agriculture is hit harder—and what that means for rural livelihoods

Sri Lanka’s exposure within South Asia to the effects of climate change is significantly higher because island geographies concentrate multiple hazards: sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion along densely settled coasts; flash floods and landslides in the central highlands; and rainfall variability across paddy-dependent dry and intermediate zones. Tide-gauge and satellite analyses around Colombo indicate a multi-millimetre annual sea-level rise, while field studies report salinisation of coastal paddy lands from Jaffna to Matara are reducing yields, raising water requirements, and degrading soils.

Due to Sri Lanka’s socioeconomic profile, the effects of such changes might profoundly impact the livelihood of four-fifths of Sri Lankans who live in rural areas. Agriculture accounts for a modest but systemically important share of GDP (about 7.5% in 2024), yet labour force surveys of the Sri Lankan Government show that about one in four jobs remains agrarian.

Effect on yields and households

The challenges were evolving over the last few years. The 2016–2017 drought cut paddy output by about 40% and displaced hundreds of thousands through floods and landslides. According to the Hector Kobbekaduwa Agrarian Research and Training Institute (HARTI) of Colombo, in 2017, extreme weather events caused over 246 deaths and displaced 600,000 people, ranking Sri Lanka as one of the most climate-affected countries that year in the Global Climate Risk Index. In recent times (2025), newspapers like Financial Times and Daily Mirror report renewed production pressures on paddy, tea and coconut with yield declines due to a climate regime of longer dry spells punctuated by high-intensity rain. Beyond the agronomy, these swings undermine wage days for casual rural labour, depress seasonal cashflows for smallholders, and trigger distress borrowing.

Sri Lankan universities and national research bodies have documented how climate variability is reshaping the social fabric of rural life. Fieldwork led by the University of Peradeniya (2024) in dry-zone communities has linked erratic rainfall to household food insecurity and declining diet quality, while case studies describe the way disrupted Maha and Yala rice calendars compress demand for hired labour and erode women’s home-garden surpluses that typically fund school and health expenses. The island-specific marine and coastal risks compound these pressures beyond the paddy field.

Plantation crops face the same challenges

The challenges are not restricted to staple crops alone. Sri Lanka’s four main plantation crops—tea, rubber, spices and coconut—are adjusting as climate change upends weather patterns. Erratic monsoons and droughts disrupt yields, raise farming costs and stir economic and social concerns. Climate change, coupled with falling tea prices, higher cultivation expenses, increased pest pressures and a shrinking labour force, has created formidable headwinds. The Ethical Tea Partnership notes that by mid-century “the optimal suitability of tea growing regions in Sri Lanka will be reduced by 14% and by 2070, suitability in Sri Lanka will decline by nearly 30%.” Rubber estates faced climate-aggravated blight in 2023, thriving in unseasonal rain and reducing latex yields by up to 30% on some estates. Coconuts—the “tree of life”—have wilted under recurrent droughts; the Central Bank recorded a 31.6% year-on-year output decline in February 2025, and a single nut now costs about twice what it did three years ago.

Sri Lanka’s exposure within South Asia to the effects of climate change is significantly higher because island geographies concentrate multiple hazards: sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion along densely settled coasts; flash floods and landslides in the central highlands; and rainfall variability across paddy-dependent dry and intermediate zones. Tide-gauge and satellite analyses around Colombo indicate a multi-millimetre annual sea-level rise, while field studies report salinisation of coastal paddy lands from Jaffna to Matara are reducing yields, raising water requirements, and degrading soils. Due to Sri Lanka’s socioeconomic profile, the effects of such changes might profoundly impact the livelihood of four-fifths of Sri Lankans who live in rural areas

Water: Quantity and quality

Sri Lanka depends heavily on monsoon rains to nourish farmland. Yet increasingly erratic patterns—long dry spells punctuated by sudden deluges—have unsettled rural livelihoods. According to the International Water Management Institute, water scarcity in the Dry Zone—which covers roughly 70% of land area—already makes cultivation difficult for part of the year; climate change is adding to this seasonal stress through more unreliable monsoons and longer droughts (IWMI, 2023).

One stark marker followed the 2016–2017 El Niño: more than 2 million people affected by crop losses, landslides and a severe follow-on drought, decimating two harvest seasons and cutting off water for farming and drinking in 19 of 25 districts (UNDP–Sri Lanka, 2023).

Scientific studies chart how droughts now dominate agriculture. A 2024 assessment found that over 60% of Dry and Intermediate-zone soil and vegetation experienced drought impacts within just one month, showing how quickly planted crops can fail when rain fails to fall (Somasundaram, 2024). Sensitivity is not limited to the interior—even the Wet Zone shows vulnerability, with over half its vegetation responding to prolonged drought lasting over 11 months (Somasundaram, 2024).

Ancient reservoirs once regulated water through alternating wet and dry seasons. Today, a UNDP vulnerability index notes that more than a third of the country struggles daily to access sufficient water, especially in the Dry Zone. Pollution compounds the crunch. Surface waters, including major rivers like the Mahaweli, and groundwater sources report residues and heavy metals such as cadmium and arsenic from contaminated fertilisers; nutrient loads drive eutrophication in reservoirs, altering ecosystems and at times affecting public supplies—from Kandy Lake to the Victoria and Kotmale systems.

Together, these pressures spell systemic risk. With agriculture supporting over 80% of rural livelihoods, prolonged shortages mean crop failure, erratic planting, reduced yields and rising debt.

Soil and biodiversity: the quiet base

Sri Lanka’s agricultural soils are experiencing significant degradation. On steep land in the central hills, erosion can reach 100 tonnes per hectare per year; a longitudinal study in the Maha Oya Basin found mean soil loss rising 14.23% between 1989 and 2021. Land-use change, especially conversion of protective cover on slopes, accelerates the trend. The economic consequences recur—lower yields on farm, siltation downstream in reservoirs, and reduced capacity for irrigation and hydropower. National estimates place the cost of erosion alone between 0.74% and 1.02% of GDP.

Biodiversity mirrors the pattern. Mangrove cover has declined sharply compared with a century ago; human–elephant encounters at forest margins have grown. Reports and field observations describe the loop: hotter spells and erratic rain increase pest pressure; greater chemical use follows; residues reach waterways; pollinators and aquatic life suffer; wildlife shifts deeper into shrinking habitats. What looks like a series of unrelated events is often the same story told in different places.

The economic ledger

Environmental degradation carries an economic bill. Soil loss reduces productivity and raises input needs; silt lowers reservoir performance; treatment costs rise when nutrient loads and blooms increase. In 2023, Sri Lanka imported $ 236 million worth of fertilisers, with China, Egypt, Vietnam, the UAE and Uzbekistan as principal sources—an outflow of foreign exchange to keep fields productive, even as soils and watersheds ask for repair.

Rebuilding Sri Lanka’s natural capital

For decades, a false divide has pitted productivity against environmental health. Regenerative agriculture shows both can advance together. It rebuilds the natural capital that sustains agriculture while addressing Sri Lanka’s challenges of yield volatility, soil degradation, water scarcity and biodiversity loss. The evidence is global and measurable.

Enhancing yields and quality

Output is the first concern in any transition. After a brief adjustment, regenerative systems often deliver more stable harvests. In Ghana, cocoa farmers with Touton lifted yields 68 percent, from 400 to 670 kilograms per hectare. In Cote d’Ivoire, Olam’s cotton program raised lint yields 80%, from 250 to 450 kilograms. In Ethiopia, Nespresso’s training on pruning and stumping improved coffee yields by up to 300%. Working with nature has raised both output and quality.

Restoring soil

Healthy soil is the nation’s primary asset. Regenerative practice treats it as a living ecosystem. Studies show soil organic carbon rises by 20% and nitrogen by 24% over two decades. Regenagri data across 1.4 million hectares shows regenerative cotton farms sequester 2.12 tonnes of carbon per hectare each year. Sub Saharan studies report 30% lower erosion, keeping topsoil, nutrients and water on farm.

Building water resilience

Water security is central to Sri Lanka’s future. Higher soil organic matter creates a sponge effect. Infiltration rises by more than 100%, while soil moisture increases up to 60%. Regenagri cotton in India cut water use by 550,000 litres per hectare annually. Certified coffee in Brazil saved nearly 100,000 litres. Fields that hold water ease both drought and flood.

Revitalising biodiversity

Cover crops, intercropping and agroforestry restore diversity. A richer mix of plants, insects and soil life reduces pest pressure and cuts input costs. As organic matter rises, water retention improves and yields stabilise. Resilient farms help maintain the balance of ecosystems.

The economic case

Regeneration is a strategic investment, not an expense. At the farm level, reducing input dependence can save $ 150 per hectare. In Maharashtra, Vinod Bhende reduced costs by 13%, increased yields by 16%, and boosted income by 30% through bio inputs and intercropping. In Bangladesh, Shathi Sultani’s mango, beans, and vegetables offer steady cash flow and diversify risk. At national scale, an IUCN study for Africa suggests widespread adoption could add $ 70 billion in value and create five million jobs by 2040. More resilient systems offer steadier returns, making agriculture more attractive for banks and investors.

The social dividend

Regenerative systems are knowledge-intensive and suit the skills of women who anchor home gardens and diverse crops. Empowering them boosts food security and reduces poverty. Shared water management and farmer cooperatives build cohesion and complement welfare schemes like Prajashakthi. Stronger communities and healthier farms reinforce each other, promoting an enriched nation built through people’s participation.

Seeding a resilient future: Why regenerative practices fit Sri Lanka’s own vision

The case for regenerative agriculture in Sri Lanka rests on alignment. Adopting a national regenerative agriculture strategy represents a rare and potent convergence of domestic political will, international strategic priorities, and global market forces. This “triple alignment” creates an unprecedented opportunity for Sri Lanka to achieve ecological restoration, economic prosperity, and enhanced global standing simultaneously.

Political alignment: There is an alignment with the present Government’s own manifesto. The new Government has articulated a profound and compelling vision for the nation’s future, one that seeks to fundamentally reorient the relationship between humanity and the natural world. This vision, encapsulated in the pledge to “move away from anthropocentric thinking that places man as the sole owner of the earth... and aims to co-exist with all elements of the environment to maintain the balance of ecosystems,” is more than a policy statement; it is a democratic mandate for systemic transformation. The principles of regenerative agriculture, which focus on restoring soil health, enhancing biodiversity, and working in harmony with natural cycles, are the tangible application of a non-anthropocentric worldview. By championing this approach, the Government would not be adopting an external agenda but rather fulfilling the core promise made to its people, turning a foundational philosophy into a national reality. 

Partnership alignment: The European Union’s development strategy with Sri Lanka centres a green recovery that supports sustainable agriculture and circular value chains. At the same time, the EU has put in place hard rules — a due diligence directive on human rights and environmental harms in supply chains, and a carbon border levy that starts to price embedded emissions on imports. Countries that can prove low-risk, low-carbon, traceable production will keep access and win investment; those that cannot will pay fees or lose buyers. A national commitment to regenerative agriculture would position Sri Lanka as a model partner, directly meeting the EU’s stated objectives and unlocking significant development assistance, trade benefits, and technical support.  

Market alignment: Global food and apparel companies are under immense pressure to decarbonise their supply chains and meet ambitious net-zero targets. The vast majority of their carbon footprint lies in “Scope 3” emissions, which originate from agricultural production. These corporations are now actively seeking and investing in suppliers who can provide certified, regeneratively grown raw materials as a primary strategy to meet their climate goals.  

This confluence of factors is historic. It offers Sri Lanka the chance to pivot from a position of economic vulnerability to one of strategic strength, transforming its agricultural sector from a source of environmental degradation into an engine of resilient growth and a provider of high-value solutions to the global market. This report will detail the evidence-based pathway for seizing this opportunity.

A regenerative future for Sri Lanka: From vision to action

Sri Lanka now stands before a rare opportunity to reimagine its agricultural economy—not just as a source of food, but as a foundation for ecological renewal, rural prosperity, and global leadership. Regenerative agriculture offers such a path. But turning this vision into reality demands policy clarity, political will, and structural coherence.

First, a National Regenerative Agriculture Mission must be created as a high-level, cross-ministerial body reporting directly to the Cabinet or President. This entity would coordinate strategy, remove bureaucratic hurdles, and align ministries like Agriculture, Environment, Finance, and Trade, ensuring institutional coherence and public participation, as outlined in Sri Lanka’s own environmental principles.

Secondly, implementing a Farmer Transition Support Program is crucial. Transitioning to regenerative farming entails risks, particularly in the initial years. A comprehensive national initiative should provide a combination of incentives like grants, subsidies for soil testing, and higher prices for regenerative crops plus technical support. Framed as a leading public-private partnership, it could tap into EU Green Recovery funds and private investment, enhancing scale and credibility.

Third, agricultural education and extension systems must be reformed. Extension officers should be retrained as advisors in soil health, agroecology, and water management, not chemical sales agents. Simultaneously, curricula in agricultural universities and vocational institutes must reflect regenerative science and practice, building the skilled workforce needed for a climate-resilient economy.

Fourth, a national MRV (Measurement, Reporting, and Verification) framework should be developed. Climate finance and premium markets require data integrity. Sri Lanka must scientifically validate carbon sequestration, water savings, and biodiversity gains—transforming environmental benefits into tradable assets that meet standards set by global investors and the Green Climate Fund.

Finally, appoint a Special Envoy for Regenerative Enterprise to lead international engagement. This envoy would build partnerships with global corporations, donors, and institutions structuring long-term investments and making Sri Lanka a destination for regenerative innovation.

This five-point agenda is not aspirational but actionable. In a world demanding food systems that heal rather than harm, Sri Lanka can lead. Regeneration is not merely a farming technique; it is a national strategy for resilience, relevance, and renewal.

(The writer is Managing Director, Asia, Solidaridad Network.)