Looking ahead: Multilateral climate negotiations in 2025 and beyond

The multilateral climate negotiation process has grown in size but still needs to deliver substance to ensure effective and equitable climate action  

2025 marks the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement, presenting a prime opportunity to take stock of the state of multilateral climate negotiations and expectations for its future. This milestone arrives amid unprecedented climate disruptions, from record-breaking heat to extreme weather events and shifting climatic patterns. As global temperature rise threatens to exceed the 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement, the multilateral process faces core questions: Can it catalyse transformative action fast enough? Does its expanding scale compromise efficacy? And how can we ensure that negotiations in Bonn and Belém connect to ground realities as well as the needs and priorities of climate-vulnerable countries, groups, and communities?

What is the process?

Climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement follow a schedule with regular milestones throughout the year. In 2025, this includes the 62nd sessions of the subsidiary bodies (SB62) in June and the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) from 10-21 November in Belém, Brazil.

Since 1995, every year (with the exception of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic) has seen sessions of the COP and the SBs, with attendance numbers steadily growing. While COP1 barely had 4,000 attendees, COP15 in Paris reached around 27,000, a number that was again dwarfed by recent COPs such as COP27 in Sharm el Sheikh (50,000 attendees), COP28 in Dubai (84,000 attendees), or COP29 in Baku (56,000 attendees).

This exponential growth reflects the growing scale of the climate crisis, but it also strains the process. Negotiators now navigate a maze of simultaneous consultations, drafting sessions, and conversations. SB62, which concluded on 26 June after two weeks of intense discussions, exemplified this challenge as it brought together thousands of delegates from across the world. More than 50 agenda items, over 30 mandated events, and a range of side events and dialogues took place in and around Bonn’s World Conference Center.

In addition to SB62 and COP30, this year will also see two UNFCCC Climate Weeks, the first of which was hosted in Panama City in May. Furthermore, mandated workshops, the meetings of the constituted bodies, and events such as National Adaptation Plan Expo in Zambia complement a packed calendar for negotiators, observers, and the UNFCCC Secretariat.

These activities unfold against a backdrop of alarming scientific updates. The World Meteorological Organization’s April 2025 report confirmed 2024 as the hottest year on record, while the UNEP Adaptation Gap Report warned that finance for climate resilience remains many times below actual needs.

What’s on the agenda?

What is on the climate negotiation agenda for SB62 and the rest of 2025? There are several key topics at the centre of global attention, such as finance, adaptation, just transition, and mitigation. For each of these thematic areas, there are different agenda items, workstreams, or work programs, such as the United Arab Emirates Just Transition Work Programme or the Sharm el-Sheikh Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme.

On finance, one of the key challenges is to follow up on the new climate finance goal set in Baku last year. Through the Baku to Belém Roadmap to $1.3T—referring to the aspirational new goal of scaling up finance provided to developing countries for climate action to at least $ 1.3 trillion per year by 2035—, negotiators try to address questions of quantity and quality of finance, ensure access, and explore financial mechanisms and instruments.

For adaptation, the Global Goal on Adaptation has been prominently featured through workshops, a group of experts developing indicators, and tense negotiations lasting until the evening hours of the last day of SB62. Key areas of divergence included the timeline and guidance for the work of experts; the operationalisation of the new Baku Adaptation Roadmap; questions on cross-cutting issues; and means of implementation, which are comprised of finance, technology, and capacity-building.

Furthermore, countries are expected to submit the third round of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs 3.0) ahead of COP30, which will allow the world to get a better understanding of collective ambition and help to identify gaps, needs, and areas for enhanced action.

Where do we go from here?

A decade after the Paris Agreement, the multilateral climate negotiation process stands at a precipice. The process has grown in size but still needs to deliver substance to ensure effective and equitable climate action. As negotiators attempt to make progress on a vast agenda, many other actors—such as observer constituencies, civil society organisations, researchers, academia, and the private sector—can play a role as well within and outside SB62 and COP30.

While the key topics largely remain the same--mitigation, adaptation, means of implementation--, there are specific workstreams and items to be addressed in 2025. From indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation to a clear roadmap for making the new finance goal a reality, much work remains to be done over the coming months and going into Belém. The Paris Agreement was a historic promise. 10 years on, COP30 must answer whether that promise can be kept.

(The writer works as Director: Research & Knowledge Management at SLYCAN Trust, a non-profit think tank. His work focuses on climate change, adaptation, resilience, ecosystem conservation, just transition, human mobility, and a range of related issues. He holds a Master’s degree in Education from the University of Cologne, Germany and is a regular contributor to several international and local media outlets.)