Food insecurity is the ‘hidden devil’ of global conflicts: The case of urea

Wars and conflicts have always had serious negative effects on economies around the world. They often damage infrastructure, block key transport routes, or prompt countries to restrict exports, in general. The main commodity that gets disrupted is energy, resulting in uncertainty, driving sharp increases in fuel prices, and leading to shortages, especially in countries that depend heavily on imported energy. Since the 1973 oil crisis, many regional conflicts have caused such disruptions. More recently, tensions involving Israel, the United States, and Iran have affected not only oil but also natural gas supplies, making the global impact of modern conflicts more complex.

 This article does not attempt to cover all the economic effects of such crises. Instead, it focuses on a critical but often overlooked issue “food insecurity”, and in relation to urea fertiliser supply. This can be described as the “hidden danger” of global conflicts. Although unavoidable, by the time food shortages or rising food-prices reach ordinary households, the situation is usually already severe and difficult to reverse. Unlike many other sectors, which can recover over time, the food sector has no elasticity as the food security has no waiting time. Food must be produced locally or secured in time to meet the needs of people.

 Agriculture plays a central role in ensuring food availability. However, farming alone cannot guarantee food security. International trade is equally important, not only for supply of food but also for essential agricultural inputs such as fertiliser, seeds and breeding materials, machinery, and fuel. The availability of these inputs directly affects production (in Sri Lanka paddy is an exception, where the total seed paddy requirement is met through local production). During global conflicts, production and transport costs rise, making these inputs more expensive and less accessible, especially for developing countries. This can lead to reduced agricultural productivity and output. Therefore, countries must plan carefully, monitor global trends, and prepare for risks.

 A key global concern in the present crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important sea passages that connects Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman for commodities generated by the bordering countries providing supplies to a major part of the world.  About one-third of globally traded fertilisers pass through this route, including around 35% of urea and other nitrogen fertilisers. Ongoing tensions in the region have disrupted shipments, leading to a sharp increase in fertiliser prices. For example, the price of urea rose from about $ 350 per Mt before March 2026 to around $ 684 per Mt by 20 March 2026.

 As input costs rise, global food production is likely to decline as it affects both extent and volumes. Wealthier countries are better able to secure limited supplies, while others struggle. In times of crisis, even food-exporting countries tend to prioritise their own needs. For example, China has now restricted exports of agricultural inputs to secure their domestic supply and control prices amid global shortages. India restricted the export of non-basmati rice between 2023 and 2024 to control domestic prices, which disrupted global markets. Further, India is a major producer of urea, it does not export the product. Even the urea supplied to Sri Lanka under the Indian credit line in 2022, to which we are thankful, was a redirected shipment from Oman as India wanted to keep the national policy un-changed. These examples highlight a clear reality that the countries will always prioritise their own

Paddy production in Sri Lanka

Despite these global challenges, Sri Lanka has made notable progress in recent years, particularly in Paddy production. By 2025, paddy production exceeded 5 million Mt, nearing the previous records set in 2020 and 2021. This achievement reflects the combined efforts of Government institutions, the private sector, and farmers. However, maintaining this progress is becoming increasingly difficult under current global conditions.

 The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has come at a critical time for Sri Lanka. The Maha cultivation season has just ended, with some areas affected by extreme weather. Farmers are now harvesting their Maha season cultivation or preparing land for the Yala season. At the same time, rising fuel prices and shortages are creating additional challenges.

 Paddy production of the country depends heavily on machinery, especially for land preparation and harvesting. Fuel shortages and higher prices have made these activities more costly. The Government has intervened, introducing a fuel quota system for farmers providing some relief. However, the impact extends beyond farming, increasing the cost of transport, storage, milling, and even household cooking. Ultimately, these rising costs make food more expensive for consumers.

 Fertiliser requirement

As Sri Lanka prepares for the Yala season, ensuring proper nutrient supply to crops is essential. The Department of Agriculture (DOA) provides fertiliser recommendations based on climatic zones and water supply for the crops. Generally, Maha cultivation is mainly rainfed, while Yala relies on irrigation.

 Focusing on urea as a key fertiliser (not to say it is the wonder product), its recommended application rates in Sri Lanka vary depending on conditions. For irrigated paddy in the Dry and Intermediate Zones, about 225 kg per hectare is required, while the Wet Zone requires about 140 kg. For rainfed cultivation, the recommendations are lower, around 175 kg per hectare in the Dry and Intermediate Zones and 100 kg in the Wet Zone. On average, Sri Lanka requires about 247,000 Mt of urea annually to support around 1.3 million hectares of paddy cultivation. Seasonal requirements also vary. The rainfed Maha season requires about 148,200 Mt of urea for approx. 850,000 hectares. The Yala season, which is largely irrigated, requires about 98,800 Mt for around 450,000 hectares.

 In 2025, the Yala season recorded a high cultivation extent of paddy, about 540,000 hectares. However, only about 83,000 Mt of urea were reportedly used, i.e. around 154 kg of urea per hectare. This is below the recommended levels needed to achieve optimal yields in paddy, unless supplemented with organic matter or other nutrient sources. Therefore, applying similar levels of urea in the future seasons is unlikely to produce the desired results, especially under current supply constraints.

 Moreover, paddy is not the only crop requiring fertiliser. During the Yala season, maize requires about 12,000 Mt of urea, while the fruit and vegetable sector needs around 42,000 Mt in the first half of the year. Plantation crops, including tea, require about 62,000 metric tons in the first six months. This clearly indicates a shortage of nitrogen-based fertilisers across the agricultural sector.

 The shortage

Although alternative fertilisers, including newer-generation products, are available, most have not yet been approved by the DOA. As a result, they cannot be relied upon in the short term. While these technologies may offer long-term solutions, they are not immediate answers to the current crisis. It is also important to avoid untested products in the market, as past experiences have shown that such approaches can cause more harm than good. At the same time, the continued use of organic fertilisers alongside chemical fertilisers should be encouraged. This integrated approach can help reduce urea requirement to some extent. At present, Sri Lanka has about 102,000 Mt of urea available. Although orders have been placed for an additional 77,000 Mt, more than half of these have reportedly been cancelled due to the global crisis, with only about 16,000 Mt expected to arrive. This creates a significant shortfall of nitrogen nutrition in terms of urea. Supply of urea (or a source that would meet the requirement of the crop at a competitive price) during this Yala season should be a top priority, with strong coordination between the Government and the private sector.

The future

Looking ahead, the Maha season starting in September 2026 requires careful planning. As the main food production season, it is critical to ensure adequate input supply such as fertiliser. The Government-to-Government (G2G) negotiations should continue to secure fertilisers at whatever the volumes possible. At the same time, fertiliser distribution should be prioritised for key crops, paddy for food security, maize for both food and animal feed, and tea as the main agricultural export of the country. The Ministry of Agriculture should direct the state and private sector companies who import chemical fertiliser to have a stock at least for the next 2-3 months at any given time as a buffer to cope with situations as we experience now.

 Amid global challenges, some positive developments are already underway. Long-term efforts to produce Single Super Phosphate (SSP) from Eppawala Rock Phosphate through private sector involvement, have shown encouraging progress. Furthermore, alternative nitrogen sources, including newer-generation fertilisers, require greater attention. Their introduction and approval processes should be expedited through improved coordination among relevant institutions. This would also ease the burden on the Department of Agriculture, which currently faces the challenge of testing multiple products simultaneously with limited resources. A substantial body of research has already been conducted locally as well as in comparable agro-ecological settings elsewhere on such fertiliser products. At this stage, priority should be given to the careful analysis of existing data, accurate interpretation of results, and the effective application of these findings in practice.

 In times of crisis, decisions must be guided by scientific evidence rather than short-term reactions. Clear, well-informed policies are essential to ensure food security and protect the agriculture sector. We should not put forward the heart before the brains. Enough lessons have been learnt in the past.

 

(The author is Senior Professor in Crop Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya and could be reached via email at [email protected])