Emperor’s ‘Epic Fury’: The cycle of debt, war, and imperial decline

The trajectory of human civilisation is often defined by the rise and fall of great empires, each following a strikingly similar pattern of expansion, overreach, and eventual collapse. Historical evidence suggests that the demise of these powers is rarely a sudden event but rather a protracted unravelling triggered by the loss of strategic maritime control, the mounting costs of perpetual warfare, and the accumulation of unsustainable debt. As we navigate the heightened geopolitical tensions of 2026, the parallels between the ailing empires of the past and the current global order become increasingly difficult to ignore.

Geopolitics of strategic waterways

Control over the world’s “choke points”—strategic canals and straits—has long been the bedrock of imperial dominance. The Strait of Hormuz serves as a primary example. From 1515 to 1622, Portuguese conquerors dominated the seas and controlled this vital passage. Their hegemony was eventually challenged by a coalition between the British East India Company and the Persian ruler Shah Abbas, who seized the strait and maintained control until the mid-20th century.

Britain’s imperial status was inextricably linked to its ability to secure sea routes, specifically the route to India through the Persian Gulf and the Suez Canal. However, the drain of two world wars left the British Empire heavily indebted. The nationalisation of the Suez Canal in 1956 marked a decisive turning point, signalling the first stage of the failure of the British imperial mission and the subsequent loss of the Sterling Pound’s dominance in global trade.

Evolution of international maritime law

In the post-WWII era, a new international order emerged, championed by the United States and the United Nations, with the goal of maintaining world peace and respecting territorial integrity. A monumental shift occurred in maritime governance through the leadership of Sri Lankan diplomat Hamilton Shirley Amerasinghe. As the architect of the “Constitution of the Oceans” during the Third UN Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS 1973-1980), Amerasinghe fostered a consensus that defined Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and established the “Common Heritage of Mankind”.

Despite the significance of UNCLOS, major powers have historically treated international law with selective adherence. Both the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States signed the convention in 1982, yet neither has ratified it. This lack of commitment has led to a failure to ensure the freedom of navigation through international straits, a tension that has culminated in the hostilities of 2026 as the US mobilises allies to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz.

Contradiction of founding principles

The year 2026 marks the 250th anniversary of two seminal texts: Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations and the American Declaration of Independence. Ironically, the current actions of the American empire appear to work in direct opposition to the doctrines enshrined in these documents. Smith’s “invisible hand” was intended to advance the broader good through competitive markets, while the American founders expressed a clear preference for non-interventionism and respect for sovereignty.

The unprovoked wars in West Asia in 2026 represent a departure from these founding principles. Historical progress, fuelled by the innovations of thinkers like Smith, Newton, and Watt during the Industrial Revolution, has frequently been reversed by human greed and the pursuit of absolute political and economic power. This “colonial agenda” has not only resulted in human suffering but has also left the world to pay the price for hydrocarbon emissions and climate change.

Architecture of debt and reserve currencies

The common thread among fallen empires is the reliance on debt to sustain power. From the French Revolution and the Napoleonic wars to the twilight of the British Empire, over-ambitious leaders have consistently used debt financing and taxation to fund their egoistic visions.

When the British Pound lost its superiority as a reserve currency following WWII, the Bretton Woods system (1944-1970) emerged, pegging major currencies to the US dollar, which was convertible to gold. The US ascended as the new empire, fueled by its military-industrial complex. However, this dominance was short-lived. Costly military interventions in Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia caused the war budget to soar and the debt level to rise, making it impossible for the US to maintain gold parity. In 1971, President Richard Nixon unilaterally delinked the dollar from gold.

From gold to “Black Gold”: The Petro-Dollar era

To maintain its reserve currency status, the US established the “Petro-Dollar” system, mandating that petroleum exports be traded exclusively in US dollars. This system, linked to the SWIFT settlement network, allowed US policymakers to continue increasing debt levels while exercising geopolitical superiority through unilateral economic sanctions and the freezing of foreign reserves.

This dominance is now being challenged by emerging economic powers. The BRICS alliance is strengthening South-South cooperation and contemplating trade settlements in national currencies to bypass the US-dominated financial architecture. Even fossil-fuel-rich nations like Venezuela have opted to trade oil in Chinese Yuan.

2026: Intersection of war and energy

As of 2026, the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement continues to prioritise the fossil fuel industry, disregarding climate change and scientific facts in favour of an illusory vision of a “Great America” spanning from Panama to Greenland. While the US is a net energy exporter, the loss of “Black Gold” trading to the Yuan signifies a weakening empire.

The ongoing conflict in the Gulf threatens global stability. Economist Nouriel Roubini warns that damage to oil production facilities could trigger 1970s-style stagflation, impacting global equity markets and bond yields. If the destruction of infrastructure prevents the supply of oil and gas to Asia, the world may see an accelerated shift toward renewable energy or hydrogen-based fuels.

Conclusion: The turning tide

The history of empires teaches us that nothing is eternal. Just as the British Empire diminished after two bloody wars and the loss of the Suez Canal, the current American era faces a similar crossroads. The combination of soaring debt, unprovoked wars, and the challenge to the Petro-Dollar suggests that the US dollar-dominated global reserve regime may be nearing its end. Change is inevitable; the only question remains whether this transition will ultimately serve the better interests of humanity or lead to further destruction.