Accelerating global warming: After Nepal where is next?

• The choice is becoming clearer: continue with business as usual and pay a much higher price through disasters, food and water insecurity, economic losses and displacement or act now to reduce emissions, protect ecosystems and prepare for the changes already underway. Climate change is no longer simply an environmental issue. It is an economic, social, health and security challenge affecting every country

“Climate change is one of the greatest challenges of our time. The choice before humanity is clear: we can pay the bill now by acting decisively to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions or pay dearly later as the impacts of a warming planet become increasingly severe.”

Catastrophic flash floods in Nepal

The catastrophic flash floods that struck the Nepal, Tibet border region on 26 August 2026 provide yet another warning of the increasingly dangerous consequences of a warming planet Earth.

A massive collapse of ice and rock in the Himalayas triggered an avalanche and debris flow that swept into the Lhende River system, sending an enormous surge of water and mud downstream. Settlements, roads, bridges and hydropower infrastructure were destroyed, with hundreds of lives lost and thousands reported missing as rescue operations continued.

Initial reports suggested that an earthquake had triggered the disaster. Subsequent analysis indicated that the seismic signal was generated by the massive collapse of ice and rock itself. 

Satellite imagery showed that a substantial section of a glacier of about 600 meters accross had broken away at high altitude and plunged into the valley, generating the devastating flood. 

Scientists have warned that a rapidly warming Himalayas is making glaciers, permafrost and mountain slopes increasingly unstable. This does not mean that climate change alone caused this disaster; such events can have several interacting causes. However, rising temperatures can weaken frozen ground and glaciers and increase the risk of catastrophic ice, rock and debris avalanches.

The tragedy is particularly painful because Nepal contributes very little to global greenhouse gas emissions, yet its mountain communities are among those facing some of the greatest risks from a changing climate.

World experiencing extreme heat

The Himalayan disaster is only one of many warning signs of a rapidly changing climate.

A strong El Niño is already influencing weather patterns in many parts of the world. Sri Lanka is also feeling the impact, with reduced rainfall from the southwest monsoon. Water levels in many dry-zone reservoirs have fallen below 40% of capacity, while thousands of minor tanks are almost dry, threatening drinking water supplies for both people and animals. With the present water crisis there is uncertainty about 2026/2027 Maha cultivation.

Europe has experienced another summer of extreme heat and wildfires. Portugal and southern Spain were forecast to reach temperatures of around 43°C during July. The World Health Organisation has warned that extreme heat is becoming a growing public-health crisis, with thousands of excess deaths already being reported in several European countries. Europe is also warming at roughly twice the global average rate.

Australia, too, has experienced devastating bushfires. In January 2026, more than 400,000 hectares were burned in Victoria as extreme heat and strong winds created catastrophic fire conditions. The fires caused extensive damage to homes, livestock and infrastructure.

These events should not be viewed as isolated incidents. Across the world, extreme heat, drought, wildfires, intense rainfall and flooding are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. Together, they provide a stark warning that the impacts of global warming are no longer a distant threat, they are already being felt.

What exactly is climate change?

Climate change refers to long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Some climate variations occur naturally because of changes in solar activity, volcanic eruptions and other natural processes.

However, the dominant cause of the warming observed since the Industrial Revolution is human activity. The burning of coal, oil and natural gas releases large quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. These gases accumulate in the atmosphere and reduce the amount of heat escaping from Earth into space. The result is a warming climate.

Earth is becoming increasingly out of balance

The latest assessments by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), provide compelling evidence of the scale of the problem. It has warned that the Earth's climate is increasingly out of balance.

The WMO has confirmed that 2015–2025, were the 11 hottest years on record. The year 2025 was among the warmest years ever recorded, at around 1.4°C above the 1850–1900 average, depending on the dataset used.

The Earth continuously receives energy from the Sun and releases energy back into space. Under a stable climate, these flows are approximately balanced. Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing more heat to remain within the climate system instead of releasing back into space.

Ocean heat content reached another record high in 2025.The imbalance accelerating since 2001. More than 91% of the excess heat is being absorbed by the oceans while about 5% goes to land and 3% to ice and 1% into atmosphere. This enormous accumulation of heat is not immediately visible, but its consequences are increasingly apparent.

It contributes to warmer oceans and atmosphere, melting glaciers and ice sheets, rising sea levels and changes in the intensity and distribution of extreme weather.

Human-induced warming

There is now overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities are responsible for most of the warming observed since the 19th century. Global fossil-fuel use continues to produce tens of billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide every year.

If humanity can rapidly reduce these emissions, the rate of global warming can be substantially reduced.

The consequences of warming are already being experienced around the world. They include more intense heatwaves, droughts, water shortages, wildfires, heavy rainfall and flooding, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and ice sheets, coastal erosion, landslides and damage to ecosystems and biodiversity.

Millions of people are increasingly exposed to these risks, while poorer and more vulnerable communities often have the least capacity to cope.

Paris Agreement – and widening gap

The historic United Nations climate conference in Paris reached a breakthrough on 12 December 2015.

The Paris Agreement seeks to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. It established a framework for countries to strengthen their climate commitments over time and provide support to developing countries. The agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016.

But the gap between commitments and action remains enormous.

The UN Environment Program’s 2025 Emissions Gap Report estimates that, under current policies, the world is heading towards approximately 2.8°C of warming by the end of this century. Even full implementation of current national climate pledges would leave projected warming at around 2.3–2.5°C.

This is a dangerous trajectory.

The world has therefore reached a critical point where every fraction of a degree of warming avoided matters. Each additional fraction increases the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem damage, sea-level rise, food insecurity and human displacement.

Net zero cannot remain a promise

Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions is essential and cannot remain merely a political promise.

Many countries, including Sri Lanka, have announced ambitious emission-reduction and net-zero targets. But announcements alone will not stabilise the climate. They must be translated into rapid and measurable reductions in actual emissions.

At the same time, adaptation is essential. Countries must strengthen early-warning systems, disaster preparedness, water management, climate-resilient agriculture, coastal protection and ecosystem restoration to protect communities from impacts that can no longer be avoided.

This requires a fundamental transformation of energy systems, moving away from coal, oil and gas towards solar, wind, hydropower and other low-carbon energy sources. Transport, industry, buildings and agriculture must also become progressively less carbon intensive.

Warning is clear

The Nepal catastrophe should not be regarded as an isolated tragedy.

Extreme heat, wildfires, droughts, floods and changing ocean conditions are increasingly warning us that the climate system is under growing stress.

The choice is becoming clearer: continue with business as usual and pay a much higher price through disasters, food and water insecurity, economic losses and displacement or act now to reduce emissions, protect ecosystems and prepare for the changes already underway.

Climate change is no longer simply an environmental issue. It is an economic, social, health and security challenge affecting every country.

(The author served as Subject Matter Specialist in Irrigation, Water Management and later as Director of the Natural Resources Management Centre, Department of Agriculture. He has worked with FAO in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh for several years).