Colombo – the Venice in the Indian Ocean? Our tryst with a glacier

 The emphasis for urgent action that is continuously raised by the UN Secretary General is not getting materialised. In the climate front, with the UN Secretary General decrying the current planetary situation with a significant number of serious adjectives, the new insights ask for urgent actions and urgent repurposing of whatever we do. However, the same urgency is not felt by the global leadership, where there is much more disunity than unity, craving for someone’s resources and unsustainable consumption

Another COP has ended, and Bélm in Brazil is recorded for posterity. However, as they always say at the end, it was another Conference of the Parties that concluded with a watered-down agreement. Considering this is the 30th such meeting happening across the world, the amount of hot air and gaseous emissions released to realise these endings begs scrutiny on the sincerity of purpose. When the results are not positive and quite disheartening, it is reasonable when some pose the question – Why are we spending $1 billion plus and flying 50,000 people around the world just to talk about stopping emissions? The COP in Brazil was all about the climate crisis, and everyone knew why they were converging to this place next to the Amazon river. Ending fossil fuels and the Amazon rain forest were very much under discussion, yet they did not make it to the final agreement specifics only semantics and some promises on ensuring finances. 

One thing is sure: there is a need for another COP to agree on proposals made here. The show will go on. However, it must be stated that the emphasis for urgent action that is continuously raised by the UN Secretary General is not getting materialised. In the climate front, with the UN Secretary General decrying the current planetary situation with a significant number of serious adjectives, the new insights ask for urgent actions and urgent repurposing of whatever we do. However, the same urgency is not felt by the global leadership, where there is much more disunity than unity, craving for someone’s resources and unsustainable consumption.

Facts and fiction

Occasionally, it is interesting to wander around between facts and fiction, as new insights are possible when you place yourself outside the box. Equating Colombo to Venice is a discourse in that direction. An analogy to get the sense of urgency to sink in and get all Nero’s to come to their senses. Well, an important part of the emerging Colombo is the Port City, which was reclaimed from the sea to grow and shine. It is bewildering to the mind to think what we were unable to do with 65550 sq km all alone would be outdone by a mere 2.69 sq. km!? The spanner in the work here is the question: did the Indian Ocean only give a temporary lease, only to claim it back with much more interest?! 

From Dondrahead (Dewundara Thuduwa) you can look south and sail south as well. The next landmass is Antarctica – the World’s largest desert and the only uninhabited continent. Something is happening there which should be noticed by us. There is also an option for countries like Sri Lanka, where we have the right to set up a research station, as we have the right as a country. The issue, however, is not about setting the research station but the disappearance of the continent.

From Dondrahead (Dewundara Thuduwa) you can look south and sail south as well. The next landmass is Antarctica – the World’s largest desert and the only uninhabited continent. Something is happening there which should be noticed by us. There is also an option for countries like Sri Lanka, where we have the right to set up a research station, as we have the right as a country. The issue, however, is not about setting the research station but the disappearance of the continent

Disappearing glaciers 

Currently, the Thwaite glacier of Antarctica is breaking and melting. Thwaite glacier is the world’s largest glacier. A real cause for concern, but not something we can rush out and restore. This mass of ice, once melted, is expected to contribute to a global sea level rise, and that is where the problem lies. We already speak of rising sea levels, land inundation, saltwater intrusion etc. This additional burden is significant, and the research says that this is likely to happen within a decade. Current data indicates that there is a 4.4 mm annual sea level rise taking place. On top of this average, a global sea level rise of 65 cm is possible with the disappearance of the Thwaite glacier. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is to collapse and melt in its entirety, the global sea level will rise by 3.3 m. The latter scenario can extend to centuries.

Disappearing glaciers has been in the news with the threat that the event poses. Glaciers in the Himalayas melting away and reducing will mean the most precious input that sustains rivers, which feed India, will vanish. Snow caps melting away can pose water supply issues to a number of cities worldwide, and Santiago, California are examples. Al Gore was quite specific in pointing to this aspect of shrinking glaciers in his Oscar-winning documentary The Inconvenient Truth. With Thwaite melting away in the West Antarctic, about 15000 km away, we are also thrust into the front line of an emerging environmental emergency.

Bringing attention to glaciers and primarily due to this issue of Thwaite melting, the world decided to have a World Glacier Day this year on 21 March. With Piduruthalagala, Sri Pada etc, entertaining no glaciers, we must have decided to give this global day celebration a miss and miss the point of our own connectivity to a glacier elsewhere. Primarily, the rising global temperatures are being identified for the glacier decline. Deposition of carbon particles from unsound human practices such as burning of waste and thermal power plants, entering global circulation patterns and getting deposited on polar ice are also considered to accelerate solar absorption – being black particles! – and accelerate melting.

Issue of sea level rise There is also a school of thought on the rapid melting of Thwaite due to the presence of a geological ‘hot spot’, which is a massive 620,000 sq mile area. This is due to apparently more than hundred active volcanoes underneath. Whether it is climate change or volcanic heat flux, the ice mass in Antarctica is facing a double whammy, and melting is the net result. This melting at scale manifests as sea level rise. It is now an abnormal ice sheet melting with respect to the Thwaite glacier is an established fact. Melting of the Thwaite is expected to yield two feet of sea level rise. With the glacier gone, there are a few more glaciers and the West Antarctic ice sheet that will rapidly disappear. This is expected to add a further 8 feet of sea level rise. Ten feet overall. There are many, including NASA, who are carefully watching this part of Antarctica 12000 km away from Dondrahead and how the sea level is changing. Understanding scenarios supports decision making, and this scenario has been studied by Chandanie with her team, one of our GIS experts with CEA’s R&D division. Due to resource limitations, matching developments to the Sri Lankan coastline is not quite easy. Yet some of the preliminary findings are shown here to open the dialog that we lack yet are important. Venice in the Indian Ocean is my clickbait to engage. Two hot spots in Sri Lanka are evident even with the limited resolutions available.

We are currently experiencing the issue of sea level rise via sea water intrusion in rivers, and especially where we are having water intakes for drinking and industrial uses. Salinity barriers are being discussed while issues have surfaced with the Kelani, Kalu and Nilwala rivers. Salt-tolerant agriculture is another topic that the researchers are talking about, but decision makers are completely unaware of.

State of health of Antarctica is looking quite shaky. The disappearance of a good part of the continent is not just about redrawing the contours and maps. The consequence of that event dynamically happening today as we read this, will ask us to redraw our coastlines too. Today, Thwaite has been given a nickname – Doomsday Glacier. I must state that science is much more optimistic here, but sans scientific decision making, that state of affairs may be exactly where we are headed for.