Who will rule the world in 2019?

By Renuke Wijayawardhane

Whoever wins the 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup, one thing is certain – few bowlers would remember this World Cup with affection.

The overall run rate of the 2015 World Cup was 5.65, the highest todate. By all accounts, it is will be much more in 2019. 

Gone are the days when 300 runs was considered to be a match-winning score. Even a target of 375is achievable nowadays.  This is mainly due to the way teams have approached ODI cricket since of late. Wickets have become flatter. Teams are packed with power-hitters. 100 runs can be chased in the last 10 overs. 

It is in this backdrop that England can be regarded as the overwhelming favourites to win the ICC Cricket World Cup in 2019. 

Over the years, England have been underachievers when it comes to one-day cricket. They have been disappointing at the World Cup. England were the finalists thrice (in 1979, 1987 and 1992), but they are yet to win the World Cup. In fact, after 1992, England’s performance in the World Cup has been abysmal. Their 2015 campaign was the worst, having been knocked out of the tournament after the 1st round. 

Why are England considered favourites in 2019? 

Things are very different now in 2019. Eoin Morgan’s side has had a remarkable run in the ODIs since the 2015 World Cup. England’s win percentage in ODIs since the 2015 World Cup is 62.8, the highest by a team during the period.  They have won 14 of the 21 bilateral ODI series they have played since the 2015 World Cup, and have won 9 of the last 10 series. England have been dominant at home, winning 30 of their 42 home ODIs since the last World Cup. They are currently the No. 1 team in the ICC ODI rankings. 

After the 2015 debacle, England started building a new ODI unit. They dropped some senior players (James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Alastair Cook) and changed the composition of the ODI team. The ODI set up was completely remodeled after 2015.

England now have the best batting line up in ODIs. Their batting unit has been transformed from pitiful laggards to awe-inspiring pace-setters. Their batsmen generally adopt an aggressive approach throughout the 50 overs. 

The top order (Jason Royand Jonny Bairstow) has been explosive. Jos Buttler is an outrageously gifted stroke-maker who could bat in any position, depending on the circumstances of the game. The middle order looks solid with the likes of Eion Morgan and Joe Root, followed by some hard-hitting all-rounders (Ben Stokes and Moeen Ali). This makes the England side capable of scoring high 300+ scores on a consistent basis. Even the tail enders (Chris Woakes, Adil Rashid, Liam Plunkett, David Willey) have won matches for England on many occasions in the past three years. This gives the top order the license to score freely.  

The results are clear. England have scored 300 runs or more 35 times in 82 innings since the 2015 World Cup. In contrast, until 2015, they had managed to go past 300 mark only 34 times! England have as many 300+ scores as India and Australia put together!They have shattered the world record for the highest innings total in an ODI twice during the past three years. Such is their batting prowess.

Their bowling attack is well-balanced and penetrative with several attacking options (Rashid, Ali), especially in the middle overs. England are a top fielding side too. 

England have benefitted mainly due to the fact that the individual players have made contributions by playing as a team. This is in stark contrast to the other teams where the responsibility is more with specific individual match winners. 

Eoin Morgan’s captaincy has had a major impact on England’s success. He is calm, cooland collected; shows little emotion even in pressure-cooker situations. He slows things down during tough times.  

Morgan (along with the coaches) successfully changed the mindset of the entire team. He created an environment in which players were given the freedom to play with flair, backing their instincts. This enabled England to develop aunit that plays attacking cricket on a regular basis. England was able to gain the number one status in ODIs largely due to Morgan’s aggressive captaincy. 

The last two World Cups were won by the hosts, and 2019 appears to be no different. England, as the hosts, also have the advantage of playing under favourable home conditions. The flat and fast batting-friendly surfaces at home should largely assist their style of batting. 

However, England’s pace attack lacks experience and appears to be one-dimensional, compared to other top sides.  The ‘host’ tag may put additional pressure on them as well. 

Who are the other contenders? India are the global juggernauts and could give England a good run for the trophy. They have a star-studded batting line up with the number one batsman (ViratKohli) and two of the most destructive finishers in limited over cricket at present (MS Dhoni and Hardik Pandya). Their potent bowling attack, which include the best death bowler in the world (JaspritBumrah) and the spin-twins (YuzvendraChahal and KuldeepYadav), could dismantle any team.

India has had a lot of success in England in recent years, which demonstrates that they could handle the conditions well. However, theirover-reliance on individual brilliance and the fragile middle-ordermay cause a few concerns. 

Australia struggled most part of the last three years, but with an astonishing series win against top-ranked India (after trailing 0-2) followed by a 5-0 whitewash of Pakistan recently, they have completed a remarkable resurgence. With the comeback of Steve Smith and David Warner, Australia are a completely different side now. They are the dark horse of this World Cup.

Pakistan are as unpredictable as they have ever been. A few days ago, they almost chased 373 against England. They won the highly competitive ICC Champions Trophy in 2017 in England, beating the much-fancied India. This shows that Pakistan could always pull something out of the hat in important tournaments. 

New Zealand are underrated, but they never fail to make a mark in the World Cup. They have rarely missed out a semi-final berth. They have an astute leader in Kane Williamson, and Ross Taylor is in the form of his life. Pace due Tim Southee and Trent Boult continue to pose problems. The English conditions would be somewhat similar to playing at home, which makes the Kiwis one of the contenders for the trophy. 

South Africa without AB De Villiers will have a slim chance of winning the World Cup. They certainly possess a lethal pace attack and some solid top-order batsmen. They have not performed well in England in the recent past and could, at best, aim for a spot in the semi-finals.   

The 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup will feature 10 teams who would play each other once in the round robin format. The top four teams will qualify for the semi-finals. It will be a gruelling tournament where the teams would need to be competitive over a long period whilst retaining the intensity.  There will be no short-cuts to the top. 

It is safe to assume that Afghanistan, Bangladesh, West Indies and Sri Lanka are not in contention to win the World Cup.

(The writer is a cricket enthusiast. He can be reached at [email protected].)