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Thursday Dec 12, 2024
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Sri Lanka’s semi-final hopes hinge on the results of New Zealand and Australia.
SYDNEY: By Friday evening, a day before their final Group 1 match against England at the SCG, Sri Lanka will know their fate whether they are in with a chance of making it to the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup or they will be on the plane home after Saturday’s fixture.
Sri Lanka’s fate will get sealed if both New Zealand and Australia win their respective matches on Friday at Adelaide. New Zealand who lead Group 1 with five points (Net Run Rate +2.233) take on Ireland in the first of the double header at this venue. It will be followed by Australia who are also on five points (NRR -0.304) meeting Afghanistan in the evening.
If both New Zealand and Australia win their respective matches, then Sri Lanka can kiss goodbye to their semi-final hopes, for even if they defeat England in their final group game on Saturday, they will not make it to the last four. Sri Lanka currently rests in fourth position with four points (NRR -0.457) and the maximum points they can get is six if they win against England. England are currently in second position with five points (NRR +0.547).
For Sri Lanka to have any hopes of a semi-final berth either Ireland or Afghanistan must cause an upset. Then the Sri Lanka v England clash becomes a virtual quarter-final.
The other scenario is if at least one of Friday’s two matches gets washed out, Sri Lanka can still go through if they beat England as they will have the advantage of more number of wins over the other team (s) that finish on six points.
The tournament rule states that if teams are tied on points the first preference is given to the NUMBER OF WINS which takes precedence over NET RUN RATE.
Sri Lanka are the only team in the group who have been spared of the inclement weather and have completed all their matches played so far, winning two and losing two. They won against Ireland by nine wickets at Hobart, then lost back-to-back matches to Australia by seven wickets at Perth and to New Zealand by 65 runs at Sydney before regrouping to defeat Afghanistan by six wickets at Brisbane.
Defending champions Australia are also not too happily-placed to qualify for a semi-final place due to their poor net run rate caused largely by their heavy defeat against New Zealand in the opening match of the Super12.
Even if they win against Afghanistan, and New Zealand and England also win their respective matches, all three teams will end up on seven points with the same number of wins, which in this case the net run rate will come into play. Australia with their poor net run rate will be hard-pressed to make it to the last four. Also, England who play their final match (against Sri Lanka) after both New Zealand and Australia will have the exact equation ahead of them to qualify.
If the worst comes to the worst, the best thing for Sri Lanka to take out of the 2022 T20 World Cup is to finish fourth in their group which would give them automatic qualification for the 2024 edition of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup to be hosted by USA and West Indies. The ICC announcing the qualifying pathway for the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2024 that will have 20 teams, states:
“The eight top-performing teams at the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2022 in Australia alongside hosts USA and West Indies will automatically qualify for the 2024 edition of the marquee tournament.”
In the past two T20 World Cups (2021 in UAE) and (2022 in Australia), Sri Lanka’s had to go through a qualifying round to enter the Super12s, which they did successfully on both occasions.
