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Sri Lanka’s economic objectives
Sri Lanka’s economic objectives are to increase trade ties with South Asia’s dominant economic powers, to induce transformation of Sri Lankan exports from low value goods to high value added goods aimed at niche markets, and also to benefit consumers with lower cost of living, strengthening the welfare effect of FTAs, NCE notes.
It says Sri Lanka also expects to attract Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) from third countries, by promoting itself as an effective entry point to access the larger Indian and Pakistan markets. Further India and Pakistan could invest in Sri Lanka and export to Western markets, exploiting favourable conditions conducive to those markets.
Ambassador for Norway in Sri Lanka Grete Løchen in her address at the AGM of the NCE recently pointed out that consumers in Europe were becoming much more conscious about labour, and environmental standards, and their voice was more powerful than ever before. She added that many Sri Lankan companies already had a good record on this front, compared to many in Asia, and this certainly becomes a competitive advantage to focus more on, if Sri Lanka is looking to pivot back European markets.
However, achievements under the ISFTA and PSFTA over the past decade have not been up to expectations.
China and India
In this background NCE notes it is necessary to objectively look at the trade performance of Sri Lanka in the two largest Asian markets (and in the world), China and India.
In the case of India, exports from Sri Lanka which comprise over 80% of products having duty free access under the ISFTA, increased steadily up to 2005 in absolute terms, and thereafter showed a declining trend up to 2010.Thereafter, although
recording marginal gains up to 2013, the value of exports is yet to reach the level achieved in 2005 13 years after the ISFTA.
On the other hand imports from India grew substantially up to 2011, and have declined marginally thereafter. Nevertheless, the balance of trade has remained excessively in favour of India to date ($ 2,525 m as at end 2013).
A total of 50% of exports to India during the growth period up to 2005 arose out of Indian investments in Sri Lanka for the production of vanaspati and refined copper. These investments, as is well known, did more damage to the Sri Lankan economy in terms of environmental and labour issues, as opposed to the benefits derived from re-exports to India. They were subsequently wound-up, due to the strong domestic lobby of the Indian industry opposing duty free imports.
Non-Tariff Barriers
The other contributory factor has been the many unknown Non-Tariff Barriers (NTB) encountered by Sri Lankan exporters in India. Many of these remain in place to date.
NCE adds: “Some economists argue that the trade balance cannot be positive with all trade partners, depending on trading conditions. However, the fact remains that the trading pattern in respect of Sri Lanka’s largest Asian market partners remains heavily skewed in their favour. In the case of India, available literature indicates the concerns of the India regarding the negative trade balance with South Korea related to the FTA with that country. The question therefore remains whether the same principle should not apply to a smaller trading partner like Sri Lanka.”
The Institute for Social and Economic Change of the Centre for Economic Studies and Policy of India recently carried out a research study in Sri Lanka on NTBs encountered by exporters in Sri Lanka, and India. According to the key findings of this study (which is still in the discussion stage), it is surmised that the number and nature of NTB’s encountered by Sri Lankan exporters, in respect of identified specific sectors, is more than those encountered by their Indian counterparts.
In the case of the Chinese market too, the balance of trade remains heavily in favour of China, with exports from Sri Lanka to China negligible in comparison to imports from China to Sri Lanka (trade balance in favour of China at the end of 2013 was $ 2,838 m). Also a major portion of exports from Sri Lanka were raw materials (coir fibre) and not finished products.
The above perceptions regarding the Indian market was the determining factor among a vociferous section of Sri Lankan entrepreneurs who resisted the proposed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with India.
“However, according to recent news reports, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has apparently focused his attention on the negative trade balance of Sri Lanka with India during discussions with visiting Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena. In this background at a time when both India and Sri Lanka are focusing on rebuilding strong political and economic ties between the two countries, it is most opportune to correct the existing deficiencies, and misconceptions, related to trade between the two countries.”
Strengthening economic and trade relationship
NCE states that in the above context, and related to the discussions to strengthen the economic and trade relationship between India and Sri Lanka, concerns have been expressed in certain quarters in Sri Lanka, based on a perception that India is keen to negotiate the following with Sri Lankan authorities:
a) Agree on the implementation of the CEPA
b) Promote Indian investments in Sri Lanka to supply the Sri Lankan market relating to the following sectors.