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Wednesday, 7 June 2017 00:00 - - {{hitsCtrl.values.hits}}
Washington: The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth will strengthen to 2.7% in 2017 as a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilising commodity prices allow growth to resume in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.
According to the World Bank’s June 2017 Global Economic Prospects, growth in advanced economies is expected to accelerate to 1.9% in 2017, which will also benefit the trading partners of these countries. Global financing conditions remain favourable and commodity prices have stabilised. Against this improving international backdrop, growth in emerging market and developing economies as a whole will pick up to 4.1% this year from 3.5% in 2016.
Growth among the world’s seven largest emerging market economies is forecast to increase and exceed its long-term average by 2018. Recovering activity in these economies should have significant positive effects for growth in other emerging and developing economies and globally.
Nevertheless, substantial risks cloud the outlook. New trade restrictions could derail the welcome rebound in global trade. Persistent policy uncertainty could dampen confidence and investment. Amid exceptionally low financial market volatility, a sudden market reassessment of policy-related risks or of the pace of advanced-economy monetary policy normalisation could provoke financial turbulence. Over the longer term, persistently weak productivity and investment growth could erode long-term growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies that are key to poverty reduction.
“For too long, we’ve seen low growth hold back progress in the fight against poverty, so it is encouraging to see signs that the global economy is gaining firmer footing,” World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said. “With a fragile but real recovery now underway, countries should seize this moment to undertake institutional and market reforms that can attract private investment to help sustain growth in the long-term. Countries must also continue to invest in people and build resilience against overlapping challenges, including climate change, conflict, forced displacement, famine, and disease.”
The report highlights concern about mounting debt and deficits among emerging market and developing economies, raising the prospect that an abrupt rise in interest rates or tougher borrowing conditions might be damaging. At the end of 2016, government debt exceeded its 2007 level by more than 10%age points of GDP in more than half of emerging market and developing economies and fiscal balances worsened from their 2007 levels by more than 5%age points of GDP in one-third of these countries.
“The reassuring news is that trade is recovering,” said World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer. “The concern is that investment remains weak. In response, we are shifting our priorities for lending toward projects that can spur follow-on investment by the private sector.”
A bright spot in the outlook is a recovery in trade growth to 4% after a post-financial crisis low of 2.5% last year. The report highlights a key area of weakness in global trade, trade among firms not linked through ownership. Such trade through outsourcing channels has slowed much more sharply than intra-firm trade in recent years. This is a reminder of the importance of a healthy global trading network for the less integrated firms that account for the majority of enterprises.
“After a prolonged slowdown, recent acceleration in activity in some of the largest emerging markets is a welcome development for growth in their regions and for the global economy,” said World Bank Development Economics Prospects Director Ayhan Kose. “Now is the time for emerging market and developing economies to assess their vulnerabilities and strengthen policy buffers against adverse shocks.”
East Asia and Pacific: Growth in the region is projected to ease to 6.2% in 2017 and to 6.1% in 2018 as the gradual slowdown in China is offset by a pickup elsewhere led by a rebound among commodity exporters and accelerating growth in Thailand. Growth in China is anticipated to slow to 6.5% this year and 6.3% in 2018. Excluding China, the region is seen advancing at a more rapid 5.1% rate in 2017 and 5.2% in 2018. Indonesia is anticipated to pick up to 5.2% in 2017 and 5.3% in 2018 as the effects of fiscal consolidation dissipate and as private activity picks up, supported by modestly rising commodity prices, improving external demand, and increased confidence due to reforms. Growth in the Philippines is forecast to hold steady at 6.9% this year and the next, led by a pickup in public and private investment. Thailand should similarly maintain 3.2% growth in 2017, accelerating to 3.3% next year, supported by greater public investment and recovering private consumption.
Europe and Central Asia: Growth in Europe and Central Asia is forecast to accelerate broadly to 2.5% in 2017, and to 2.7% in 2018, supported by continued recovery among commodity exporters and unwinding of geopolitical risks and domestic policy uncertainty in major economies in the region. Russia is expected to grow at a 1.3% rate in 2017 after a two-year recession and by 1.4% in 2018, with growth helped by gains in consumption. Kazakhstan is projected to expand at a 2.4% rate this year and 2.6% in 2018 as strengthening oil prices and an accommodative macroeconomic policy stance support economic activity. Among commodity importing economies, Turkey is projected to expand by 3.5% in 2017, supported by accommodative fiscal policy, and by 3.9% in 2018 as uncertainty abates, tourism recovers, and corporate balance sheets mend.
Latin America and the Caribbean: Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to strengthen to 0.8% in 2017 as Brazil and Argentina emerge from recession and rising commodity prices support agricultural and energy exporters. Brazil is forecast to expand 0.3% in 2017, with growth expected to pick up to a 1.8% rate 2018, while growth in Argentina is projected to expand at a 2.7% pace this year. Growth in Mexico is anticipated to moderate to 1.8% in 2017, principally due to contracting investment stemming from uncertainty about U.S. economic policy, before accelerating to 2.2% next year. A rising forecast for metal prices is expected to help Chile, where copper production should recover after a strike. Growth in Chile is forecast to accelerate modestly this year to a 1.8% pace and to 2% next year. In the Caribbean, rising tourism demand underlies an expected acceleration in growth to 3.3% in 2017 and 3.8% in 2018.
Middle East and North Africa: Growth in the region is projected to fall to 2.1% in 2017 as the adverse impact of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries production cuts on oil exporters outweighs modestly improving conditions in oil importers. Growth is expected to pick up to 2.9% in 2018, assuming a moderation of geopolitical tensions and an increase in oil prices. Growth in Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, is anticipated to ease to 0.6% as a result of the production cuts, before accelerating to a 2% pace in 2018. The Islamic Republic of Iran is seen slowing to a 4% rate before accelerating modestly to a 4.1% pace in 2018 as limited spare capacity in oil production and difficulty in accessing finance weigh on the country’s growth. Egypt’s economy is forecast to moderate in the current fiscal year before steadily improving over the medium-term, supported by the implementation of business climate reforms and improved competitiveness.
South Asia: Growth in the region is forecast to pick up to 6.8% in 2017 and accelerate to 7.1% in 2018, reflecting a solid expansion of domestic demand and exports. Excluding India, regional growth is anticipated to hold steady at 5.7%, rising to 5.8%, with growth accelerating in Bhutan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka but easing in Bangladesh and Nepal. India is expected to accelerate to 7.2% in fiscal 2017 (April 1, 2017 – March 31, 2018) and 7.5% in next fiscal year. Pakistan is expected to pick up to a 5.2% rate in fiscal 2017 (July 1, 2016 – June 30, 2017) and to 5.5% in the next fiscal year, reflecting an upturn in private investment, increased energy supply, and improved security. Sri Lanka’s growth is forecast to accelerate to a 4.7% rate in 2017 and 5% in 2018, as international financial institution programs support economic reforms and boost private sector competitiveness.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to pick up to 2.6% in 2017 and to 3.2% in 2018, predicated on moderately rising commodity prices and reforms to tackle macroeconomic imbalances. However, per capita output is projected to shrink by 0.1% in 2017 and to increase to a modest 0.7% growth pace over 2018-19. At those rates, growth will be insufficient to achieve poverty reduction goals in the region, particularly if constraints to more vigorous growth persist. Growth in South Africa is projected to rise to 0.6% in 2017 and accelerate to 1.1% in 2018. Nigeria is forecast to go from recession to a 1.2% growth rate in 2017, gaining speed to 2.4% in 2018. Growth in non-resource- intensive countries is anticipated to remain solid, supported by infrastructure investment, resilient services sectors, and the recovery of agricultural production. Ethiopia is forecast to expand by 8.3% in 2017, Tanzania by 7.2%, Côte d’Ivoire by 6.8%, and Senegal by 6.7%.
